FORMLAB Race Report — Thirsk 16:00

FORMLAB Thirsk · 16:00 DATA PACE FORENSIC HORSES

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Thirsk · 16:00

Class 3 · 6f · Good · FIELD MEDIAN OR 86

COURSE GRADE: High (#11 of 36) · avg winning FSF 67.5 (Cls 3, n=42)

BUILT 15:35 · 28 Aug 2026 · 19 RUNNERS PROFILED

HOW TO READ THIS REPORT · STANDING NOTE & GLOSSARY

Everything below is descriptive. The orders, figures, reads and profiles measure — they do not select, tip or recommend a horse, and no line is a bet leg. The market decides value. Figures, market and going are as of build time (see header); ground changes after build are not reflected. Going and surface records are context, never a downgrade — the market already prices them.

GLOSSARY — 15 TERMS · CLICK TO OPEN

graded NN% · miss NN% · n=N — module-level audit: of that module’s past claims, the share that settled HIT and the share that settled MISS, counted nightly against results and never hand-tuned. Both are shown because the modules do not share a PART convention — a 32% hit rate with a 1% miss rate is a different animal from a 41% hit rate with a 59% miss rate. null 50% appears only where the claim is graded HIT or MISS with no middle, so a coin flip is the exact baseline; where it is graded three ways, no null is stated, because there is no honest one.

HIT / PART / MISS — the three settlement outcomes used when a claim is graded against the result. Hover any grade for that module’s full split and race count.

Dotted-underlined reads — each Forensic Read carries its own hit rate on hover: the share of graded outings that read has hit, alongside its family average.

⇆ on a trainer condition — the two seasons disagree — that condition sits on opposite sides of A/E 1.00 in 2024-25 and in 2026. One of the two is noise and the row cannot say which, so read it as untested rather than as a finding. Each group header carries its own count.

A/E — actual wins divided by the wins the market’s prices implied. Betfair SP is a near-fair book, so 1.00 is the null, not zero: above it the runner or yard beat the market, below it the market was right. Where an interval is shown the figure is coloured only if that interval clears 1.00 outright.

DOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER — won last time with more in hand than the assessor’s rise. Full dossier on file.

FORMLAB WATCH — flagged by the start-excuse screen.

THIN · CHAINED — collateral-form lines resting on few meetings (THIN) or read through intermediate horses (CHAINED); error compounds with chain length.

FIT n/18 · Peaks · ΔMARK · HIDDEN PEAK — defined inline at the head of the Optimal Conditions Profile.

Grey dimension — no evidence either way; scores zero. Shown so missing data is never mistaken for a mismatch.

needs · THE LEVEL — the projected winning figure (TFR-scale pts): the median of the top-3 opposition’s prior figures plus a sealed +6pt calibration [P109] (holdout median error 0.00; ±5pt coverage 65.8%). THE LEVEL cell reads each runner’s best against it under today’s race conditions. LOW CONFIDENCE marks a wide band or thin exposure; where several runners are unraced/unexposed the read covers only the raced portion — an unexposed runner wins ~30% of races with 3+ of them (~10% with 1-2).

SEASONAL FLAG — gold note on the Time-of-year row: a profile with 3+ career wins of which 75%+ fell in this month ±1. Wins 15.7% (A/E 1.08, 2023-25 design) and 14.2% (A/E 1.11, 2026 holdout) [P113] — persistently under-priced. Descriptive, never an instruction.

FLAG: young & already proven at the level — gold note in THE LEVEL cell: a 2-3yo whose best figure already meets the projected needs. Wins 25% (A/E 1.13, 2024-26) and 29% (A/E 1.16, 2023 holdout) [P111, corrected 2026-08-23 for winner-exposure filtering].

COURSE GRADE — header strip: every course ranked on the FormLab course scale by the quality of animal it hosts (tier · rank). Avg winning FSF is the house speed figure of past winners at this course, class-matched where the course has 5+ figured winners in today’s class — otherwise the all-class average, labelled as such. Averages OR/TFR sit in the hover.

FSF — FormLab Speed Figure — the house time-based figure (course standard + daily variant), built from raw times, independent of Timeform. Its pts scale is its own: never read an FSF against a TFR.

1 · DATA2 · PACE & SETUP3 · FORENSIC4 · PROFILES

1 / 4Datawhat kind of race this is, and what the money thinks

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →

DATA ORDER

top pick won 27.2%winner in its top 3 61.7%732 settled raceslatest day: won 7/23 · top-3 15/23

against the marketA/E 0.98 [0.88–1.09]ROI +4.6% [-12.6, +24.1]

FORENSIC READ

top pick won 24.6%winner in its top 3 59.6%732 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 27.2% · 61.7%)

against the marketA/E 0.99 [0.87–1.11]ROI +11.1% [-11.8, +39]one 65.0 winner is 8.8pp of that

THE LEDGER ON THIS RACE TYPE

every line is a settled count matched to this race · paired figures are the two test windows: design (to 31 Jul) / live (since) — a line only appears when both agree · display only, nothing here picks a horse

HOUSE RECORD IN THIS RACE TYPE · Data P1 wins: handicap 23.1% (n=641, A/E 0.962 at BSP) · 16+ runners 12.2% (n=41, A/E 1.711 at BSP) · Class 3-4 27.4% (n=379, A/E 0.985 at BSP) · turf 28.5% (n=829, A/E 0.998 at BSP) · overall 27.1%

LEANclass readTurf 74.2%/74.2% (n 1224/1923) · trip <8f 72.8%/74% (n 851/1427) · Class 3-4 72.9%/72.1% (n 528/775) · +1 more cells — strong in both windows [P122]
CAVEATeditorial readTurf 39.5%/39.7% (n 596/992) · trip <8f 34.1%/35.9% (n 440/779) · field 12+ 28%/31.4% (n 207/334) — weak in both windows [P122]
LEANtrends readTurf 73.6%/72.3% (n 715/1351) · trip <8f 72.4%/73.9% (n 512/1066) · Class 3-4 72.9%/74% (n 284/663) · +1 more cells — strong in both windows [P122]
RETIREDconnectionsweak in both windows in all 10 tested contexts; retired by operator 2026-08-28 — 11 yard angles in this field shown as description only, uncounted [P122]

SHORTdemand readtop figure 97 v the 102 this race projects to take — P1s that clear that bar win 39.7%/38.9%, those short win 22.1%/23.3% · the market already prices this (A/E ~1.0 both ways), so it reads the race, it never finds a bet [P125]

GATE CARD [P124] · struck 2026-08-28T15:25
G1 LICENCECLOSEDoutside licence — negative both windows in big-field handicap (sealed screen rule) · hcp=HCP A/E 1.011/0.962 P/L -15.1/+18.8 (n 279/389) · field=16+ A/E 0.0/1.711 P/L -18/-2.9 (n 18/24) · cls=3-4 A/E 0.742/0.985 P/L -56.2/+17.4 (n 163/236) · surf=Turf A/E 1.013/0.998 P/L -6.2/+51.6 (n 377/483) · trip=<8f A/E 0.97/1.013 P/L -24.5/+16.7 (n 247/359) [P116b]
G2 CONVERGENCEOPENNovello Lad carries 2 of 3 desk votes, not the favourite · D Anyasi · F Novello Lad · V Novello Lad · T Anyasi — 2 distinct · fav Anyasi 4.6
G3 VALUECLOSEDNovello Lad: tissue 30, market 55 (ratio 1.83, conf HIGH), above the 15.0 ceiling — outside the window
G4 BOOK CHANNELCLOSEDpick not in capture · 5 runners scored, open v 10:00 medians · cut: Veblen Good 9.5>6 sig +0.179 · drift: Durham Castle 10>17 sig -0.152, Deep Havana 12>19 sig -0.122, Topwarrior 19>34 sig -0.117
G5 CONTEXTCLOSEDgoing Good · 8 runner(s) carry TROUBLE flags (last 3 runs, * = corroborated [P123]): Topwarrior NO_ROOM; Veblen Good SWITCHED*; Novello Lad SWITCHED; We Never Stop HAMPERED; Art Lover WIDE — complications present: they argue against a clean read
1/5 GATES OPEN — display only [P26]; NO BET is the normal output; the operator decides

THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile

		Data Order		Forensic Read
races like this one	settled	won	top-3	won	top-3
Class 1-3	174	32.2%	59.8%	30.5%	56.9%
sprints (5-7f)	358	28.2%	58.1%	22.6%	55.9%
handicaps	497	22.3%	58.6%	21.1%	56.9%
big fields (12+)	109	13.8%	33.9%	15.6%	35.8%

WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · miss 6% · n=648

42 similar races at THIRSK, 5.0-7.0f, all-aged handicaps, Class 2-4, Jun-Oct, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)

Winners here typically raced recently (88% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (60% from the first three favourites). 14% won last time out, 38% were placed 2nd-3rd.

Age

36% 6yo+

24% 5yo

21% 3yo

Last ran

62% 15-45d

26% within 14d

10% 46-90d

Market

40% 4th+ in the market

31% favourite

21% 2nd favourite

LTO form

45% unplaced last time

38% placed last time

14% won last time

The shape of past winners here. Measured: pattern reads like these grade 42.0% hit v 48.1% for the horse-specific measured reads (C7 gate) — profile colour, weighted below the measurements.

The Field at a Glance · figure order · every name jumps to its full card below

#RunnerFormLabORDrawStyleTissueMarketIn one line

ANYASI97.09020MID6.604.60among the two fastest on speed against its past fields

DURHAM CASTLE96.09012MID15.0021.00one of the two strongest finishers here

VEBLEN GOOD (IRE)958913HELD-UP10.507.40ahead of the rivals it has met on collateral form

LORD ROXBY (IRE)94904PROMINENT7.4013.50the quickest away of the early types

JORDAN ELECTRICS92.0861FRONT15.0020.00early sectional positions fit the dominant style here

ART LOVER (IRE)92.0869MID17.0018.50among the two fastest on speed against its past fields

WOODSTOCK89.08115MID15.5017.00proven on the ground

YES I'M MALI87828MID19.5011.50prominent in the betting

STARMADE (IRE)868717MID18.5015.00meets much weaker company than last time on the ratings

WOVEN86847HELD-UP42.0030.00flagged on our watch list

KATS BOB84.3765PROMINENT55.0048.00the quickest away of the early types

COUNTY CARLOW (IRE)81.38318HELD-UP25.00120.00runs the winning energy pattern for the track

TOPWARRIOR79.09011MID40.0048.00meets much weaker company than last time on the ratings

MANILA SCOUSE78.38310MID44.0048.00dropping in class

NOVELLO LAD77.78816MID30.0050.00fits the winner profile on recency

EYE OF DUBAI678219MID50.0038.00dropping in class

BIG CYRIL (IRE)64.3826MID70.00120.00backed since the morning

WE NEVER STOP (IRE)58.7872MID55.0050.00fits the winner profile on recency

DEEP HAVANA—9014—22.0028.00Fits the winner profile on market position

The Pace Map · stalls across · projected early position down · drawn from the same reads as the text · [P26]

2 / 4Pace & Race Setuphow this race gets run

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

contested early pace likely (3 confirmed early types).

This track · what has happened here before — every figure below carries its own count

What this course & distance favours

How often each running style actually wins here — out of every runner that raced that way, not just the winners: front-runners 24% of 123 · prominent racers 11% of 182 · midfield runners 4% of 153 · hold-up closers 2% of 191. Read from 649 runners with an early-position read. Share of past winners (NOT a strike rate — it does not say the style outperforms): front-runners 50% · prominent racers 34%. From 58 past C&D winners · won up with the pace. Sharp, relatively short finish; suits horses already in position — poor for a horse needing time to organise. Draw (course note — editorial, not measured and not graded): Distance-dependent and among the more biased: HIGH favoured over 6f. HIGH also an advantage over 7f and 1m in recent times. Today: 19 runners — check that against any field-size condition above. Winners’ energy signature: 50.31% spent early (band 49.86–50.88%, 80 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~3 at halfway, 0.17s off the lead). graded 37% · miss 23% · n=1580

On the clock here (turf) — races here run the opening third at 99.0 and the final furlong at 103.9 per cent of their own average furlong (turf norms 99.2 and 105.0) — an early pace about typical for the surface, with a faster finish than most — a turn of foot counts · 307 races; the horse leading at halfway goes on to win 28.9% of the time against a 11.1% by-chance line — 2.60× · 301 races; ground moves the clock: stride runs 7.461 m on firm side against 7.101 m on soft side · a spread of 0.360 m; and this is a sharp track, where a stride edge over the field has paid nothing (1.00×) · 3,850 runs at sharp tracks — a long stride is no advantage here. Racing TV sectionals & timing 2024→, from the Course Timing and Pace Shape censuses — describes the track, never a horse.

This courseranks #11 of 36 GB courses on class quality · typical race: class 5 · avg field 10 · favourites 26% (A/E 0.94, 231 races) · fair — 62% of winners race early · sharp, relatively short finish; suits horses already in position — poor for a horse needing time to organise

Today’s field · each horse’s last 6 timed runs unless the line says otherwise

Where the pace is drawn · 19 runners · stalls 1–20

1234567891011121314151617181920

Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 3.3 of 20, field average 10.9).

The pace map · measured early lanes · L# = late-speed rank

FRONT1JORDAN ELECTRICSL12

PROMINENT4LORD ROXBYL105KATS BOBL14

MID2WE NEVER STOPL176BIG CYRILL138YES I'M MALIL119ART LOVERL310MANILA SCOUSEL1611TOPWARRIORL1512DURHAM CASTLEL215WOODSTOCKL916NOVELLO LADL817STARMADEL419EYE OF DUBAIL720ANYASIL5

HELD-UP7WOVENL113VEBLEN GOODL518COUNTY CARLOW

NO READ14DEEP HAVANA

Each horse in its usual early lane — the measured run-style read, not a prediction of today’s break — with its stall and its rank on Finishing Power rank in this field. The early/late split at a glance: a front-lane horse ranked low on late speed needs controlling; a held-up horse ranked L1–L2 needs pace to close into.

The Setup ReadPACE × COURSE × FIELD · COUNTED

What today asks of this field: a contested early pace. Each column ticks the best match in THIS field and crosses the worst — hover any cell for its basis.

RunnerShapeEnergyFinishDrawStrideBreakNet

County Carlow✓–✓✓––+3

Durham Castle––✓✓––+2

Woodstock–––✓–✓+2

Art Lover✓––✓–✗+1

Deep Havana–––✓––+1

Eye Of Dubai–––✓––+1

Manila Scouse–––✓––+1

Novello Lad–––✓––+1

Starmade–––✓––+1

Topwarrior–––✓––+1

Woven––✓✓–✗+1

Yes I'M Mali–––✓––+1

Anyasi––––––+0

Veblen Good–––✓–✗+0

Big Cyril–––✗––-1

Jordan Electrics✗––✗––-2

Kats Bob✗––✗––-2

Lord Roxby✗––✗––-2

We Never Stop––✗✗––-2

Jordan Electrics, Lord Roxby, Kats Bob all race up with the pace — early pressure is likely.County Carlow’s case is cumulative, not single-factor — 3 of the 6 dimensions: top-2 late speed in this field into a likely pace collapse · sprint-home finish here and a measured closing-speed edge · stall 18 = HIGH tercile: impact value 1.15 over 106 races here (1.0 = no bias).If the pressure holds to the line the collapse profits County Carlow and Art Lover.The next best cards in the field: Durham Castle counters on finish (second-strongest [P48] finisher in a big field, and 3 early types guarantee a finish that decides); Woodstock counters on draw (stall 15 = HIGH tercile: impact value 1.15 over 106 races here (1.0 = no bias)).And the matrix reads We Never Stop worst set up (net -2): the weakest [P48] finisher in this field, and 3 early types guarantee a finish that decides; stall 2 = LOW tercile: impact value 0.70 over 106 races here (1.0 = no bias).The count says County Carlow (net +3) — while the market prefers Anyasi, whose case the matrix scores weaker. The divergence, not the read, is what deserves the second look.

EVERY CELL A FIXED RULE QUOTING ITS MEASURED BASIS (HOVER) · NET IS A COUNT, NOT A WEIGHT · CONTEXT, NEVER A SELECTION [P26]

Draw at this track · share of winners by stall thirdmild lean to MID

LOW24%IV 0.70

MID38%IV 1.16

HIGH39%IV 1.15

basis: THIRSK, sprints, TURF-GOOD, 106 races · context only — describes the track, not any runner

Measured draw · recent vs long-term · 3-year read stands; the last 12 months are too thin to confirm or deny it

3yr: HIGH +6.7pp (n 387+395, z 3.32)  ·  12mo: no gated signal

whole-career records — not the last-6 window

If the ground changes

Should it turn softer: ANYASI is 1/1 on softer ground · DURHAM CASTLE is unraced on softer ground · VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) is 1/3 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).

RunnerDrawEarly laneEarly effortFinishing powerSetup

TOPWARRIOR 11 MID 53.0% #15 held up without the late gear (15th of 17 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

DEEP HAVANA 14 — — – -

DURHAM CASTLE 12 MID 49.9% #2 solid late gains (2nd of 17 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

LORD ROXBY (IRE) 4 PROMINENT 50.9% #10 the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f

VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) 13 HELD-UP 50.1% #5 one-paced late — 5th of 17 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front

NOVELLO LAD 16 MID 50.7% #8 held up without the late gear (8th of 17 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front

ANYASI 20 MID 49.8% #5 the 5th-strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it

WE NEVER STOP (IRE) 2 MID 51.2% #17 held up without the late gear (17th of 17 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

JORDAN ELECTRICS 1 FRONT 50.9% #12 a match for the quickest early, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f

STARMADE (IRE) 17 MID 50.1% #4 one-paced late — 4th of 17 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front

WOVEN 7 HELD-UP 51.4% #1 held up without the late gear (1st of 17 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

ART LOVER (IRE) 9 MID 48.4% #3 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it

MANILA SCOUSE 10 MID 51.0% #16 held up without the late gear (16th of 17 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

YES I'M MALI 8 MID 50.5% #11 one-paced late — 11th of 17 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front

BIG CYRIL (IRE) 6 MID 50.4% #13 one-paced late — 13th of 17 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front

EYE OF DUBAI 19 MID 51.1% #7 held up without the late gear (7th of 17 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

WOODSTOCK 15 MID 49.8% #9 one-paced late — 9th of 17 on late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front

COUNTY CARLOW (IRE) 18 HELD-UP 50.6% – races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

KATS BOB 5 PROMINENT 50.8% #14 the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — but empties in the final 2f

Finishing Power ranks where each horse’s final 2f placed among the horses it actually raced against, over its last 6 timed runs. #1 is the strongest finisher in today’s field on that measure.

They spread 4.6 points on early effort (48.4% to 53.0%) — the higher numbers work hardest before the final 2f.

The early fight · measured

Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.

LORD ROXBY (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.09s off the field’s best

KATS BOBPROMINENTtypically ~2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.08s off the field’s best

JORDAN ELECTRICSFRONTtypically ~1.9 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.13s off the field’s best

nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front

Finishing Power · [P48] registered read · final-2f percentile, last 6 timed runs

1WOVEN0.672DURHAM CASTLE0.663ART LOVER (IRE)0.664STARMADE (IRE)0.655VEBLEN GOOD (IRE)0.595ANYASI0.597EYE OF DUBAI0.578NOVELLO LAD0.569WOODSTOCK0.5510LORD ROXBY (IRE)0.5411YES I'M MALI0.5312JORDAN ELECTRICS0.5313BIG CYRIL (IRE)0.5114KATS BOB0.5015TOPWARRIOR0.4816MANILA SCOUSE0.4717WE NEVER STOP (IRE)0.42

Graded record (holdout, 2,458 races): its top pick won 15.14% against an any-runner baseline of 11.01%; the winner came from its top 3 40.93% of the time; A/E 1.031. BSP-offset beta CI spans zero — the market already prices this read; context, never value. no read: DEEP HAVANA, COUNTY CARLOW (IRE)

3 / 4Forensicthe reads, counted and argued — in one place

SIXTY-SECOND VERDICT

THE SHAPEA 19-runner Class 3 handicap sprint over 6f on Good ground. Winners here typically raced recently (88% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (60% from the first three favourites).

THE PACEContested early pace likely: 3 early types (LORD ROXBY (IRE), KATS BOB, JORDAN ELECTRICS). Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. The early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 3.3 of 20, field average 10.9).

THE LEANThe figures lead with ANYASI -- top on the figures, 1pt clear of the next, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; the counted reads land on NOVELLO LAD (drops in class).

THE DANGERLittle to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. NOVELLO LAD is the one to beat it — an edge ANYASI lacks: fits the winner profile on recency.

THE SWINGA going switch changes the picture most: ANYASI is 1/1 on softer ground -- records only, aptitude is context, never a downgrade.

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (88% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (60% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 50% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, ANYASI leads on 97, 1pt clear of DURHAM CASTLE — among the two fastest on speed against its past fields. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is COUNTY CARLOW (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes ANYASI the 22% favourite.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

WHY THIS P1 · ANYASI: figure rank 1 of 19 · 4 desks converge [figure, clock, form, market] · slim counter 3/3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 20

ANYASI

OR 90 · Ray Dawson / Roger Varian

MARKET 4.6 · the market rates it a 22% chance

97.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−The top rating in this field (97.0)

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 12

DURHAM CASTLE

OR 90 · Callum Shepherd / Simon & Ed Crisford

MARKET backed 27 → 21 · the market rates it a 5% chance

96.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 3 todayRated #2 in this field (96.0)Historically underestimated by the market

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 13

VEBLEN GOOD (IRE)

OR 89 · Conor Whiteley / David O'Meara

MARKET 7.4 · the market rates it a 13% chance

95 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 3 todayRated #3 in this field (95)Proven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 1.29)Stable in form this week — 3 wins from 20 runs

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED

1NOVELLO LADnet +8+ drops in class+ race-fit (ran <=45d)+ form (top-3 LTO or recent win)+ backed since morning+ energy in the winning band+ proven on the going+ fits the winner profile on market position+ fits the winner profile on recency

2DURHAM CASTLEnet +7+ figure top-2+ form (top-3 LTO or recent win)+ backed since morning+ top-2 late speed today+ energy in the winning band+ proven at trip+ fits the winner profile on market position

3JORDAN ELECTRICSnet +6TIED 1/2+ race-fit (ran <=45d)+ form (top-3 LTO or recent win)+ backed since morning+ early sectional positions fit the dominant style here+ proven at trip+ proven on the going+ fits the winner profile on market position− burns early and empties

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

VALUE ORDER (figure votes silenced · [P79] · forward-tracked from 12 Aug) · 1. NOVELLO LAD · 2. DURHAM CASTLE · 3. JORDAN ELECTRICS · matches the Forensic order today

SITUATION B · OUT OF BAND · pick Novello Lad @ 50 · tissue r 1.62 · as of 15:31 · moves with the market · paper

Optimal Conditions ProfilePEAKS · LAST 24 MONTHS · TOP 4 BY RATING

Each horse read BACKWARD from its best recent runs: the conditions on its peak days versus today, dimension by dimension. Every horse is scored out of the same 18 dimensions — grey means no evidence, and scores nothing.

how to read this section

FIT n/18 — how many of 18 conditions today match the horse’s recent peak days. Every horse is scored out of the same 18, so scores compare across the field.

✓ green = today matches its peak-day conditions · ✗ red = today differs · · grey = no evidence either way (scores 0 — shown so missing data is never mistaken for a mismatch).

Peaks — its best runs in the last 24 months, within 7lb of its best figure (max 4). A horse needs 8+ career runs to be profiled at all.

HIDDEN PEAK — a near-best run at BSP 16+ : the market missed its best day.

ΔMARK — today’s mark minus the mark it carried at its best handicap peak; 0 or less = it has peaked off this mark before.

MANILA SCOUSE 14/18 · WOODSTOCK 13/18 · JORDAN ELECTRICS 12/18 — open all 12 profiles

MANILA SCOUSE

today · OR 83 · draw 10 (mid) · mid · 48.0 (unfancied) · David Allan · yard 14d cold

14/18

FIT 0.78 · 1 unknowable

from 4 peaks

Much of today matches this horse's best days. For it: it has the right side of the draw, it runs its best at big prices — and it's a big price again today and the race looks like being run the way its peaks were — with the ground, the track grade, the direction, the trip, the class, freshness, the time of year, the field size, the weight, the headgear and the rider all matching its peak days. Against: stronger opposition than its peaks came against; a mark above where it peaks. Its best recent run came at BSP 20.5 — the market never saw it coming. Unread: running style.

✓ GOING/SURF · 3/4 good-side ✓ TRACK · 2/4 Thirsk ✓ HANDED · 3/4 left ✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 6.0f±220y ✓ CLASS · 2/4 C3 ✗ LEVEL · 2/4 in 79±4lb ✗ MARK · 4/4 in 79±3lb ✓ DRAW · 3/4 readable peaks with the bias ✓ RACE SHAPE · 3/4 pace-on · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (33% of winners) ✓ FRESHNESS · 2/4 15-45d/<=14d ✓ SEASON · 2/4 spring/summer ✓ FIELD SIZE · 4/4 big (12+) ✓ WEIGHT · 2/4 in 9-10±4lb ✓ HEADGEAR · 4/4 tongue-tie ✗ YARD 14D · 2/4 normal ✓ JOCKEY · 1/4 peaks under today's rider ✓ MARKET · 3/4 unfancied

ΔMARK +4HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 20.5

sectional signature · fsp 98.4% avg over 3 timed peaks · pace 3 true

peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 17 rated of 19 in window · 38 career)

92 · 06 Jul 26 · Ayr 6.0f · High track · Gd/Frm · C4 hcp · OR 79 · 9-10 · tongue-tie · off 23d · vs median 79 field (17 rated) · fin 1/17 · draw 12/17 (high; day favoured high) · BSP 10.5 steady · true-run, fsp 96.8% · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.70, n 83) · S. B. Kirrane

89 · 31 May 26 · Thirsk 6.0f · High track · Good · C2 hcp · OR 78 · 8-2 · tongue-tie · off 14d · vs median 90 field (14 rated) · fin 2/14 · draw 14/14 (high; day favoured high) · BSP 20.5 unfancied · true-run, fsp 100.5% · yard 14d normal (A/E 1.02, n 115) · Duran Fentiman

88 · 02 Jul 25 · Thirsk 6.0f · High track · Good · C3 hcp · OR 79 · 9-6 · tongue-tie · off 17d · fin 1/13 · draw 8/13 (mid; day favoured mid) · BSP 19.0 unfancied · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.23, n 68) · David Allan

85 · 17 May 26 · Hamilton Park 5.0f · High track · Good · C3 hcp · OR 77 · 8-13 · tongue-tie · off 9d · vs median 80 field (13 rated) · fin 3/13 · draw 12/13 (high; no day edge) · BSP 26.0 unfancied · true-run, fsp 97.8% · yard 14d normal (A/E 1.12, n 81) · Warren Fentiman

WOODSTOCK

today · OR 81 · draw 15 (high) · mid · 17.0 (unfancied) · Oisin James Orr · yard 14d normal

13/18

FIT 0.72

from 4 peaks

Much of today matches this horse's best days. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before, it runs its best at big prices — and it's a big price again today and the race looks like being run the way its peaks were — with the ground, the track grade, the direction, the trip, the run style, freshness, the time of year, the field size, the weight and the rider all matching its peak days. Against: a different class to its peaks; stronger opposition than its peaks came against; a mark above where it peaks; different headgear to its peaks. Its best recent run came at BSP 110.0 — the market never saw it coming.

✓ GOING/SURF · 2/4 good-side ✓ TRACK · 1/4 Elite-tier · today High (#11) ✓ HANDED · 3/4 left ✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 7.0f±220y ✗ CLASS · 3/4 C4 ✗ LEVEL · 2/4 in 76±4lb ✗ MARK · 2/4 in 76±3lb ✓ DRAW · 2/4 readable peaks against the bias ✓ RACE SHAPE · 2/4 pace-on ✓ PACE/STYLE · 1/4 mid ✓ FRESHNESS · 2/4 15-45d/<=14d ✓ SEASON · 2/4 summer ✓ FIELD SIZE · 2/4 big (12+)/mid (8-11) ✓ WEIGHT · 4/4 in 9-8±4lb ✗ HEADGEAR · 2/4 cheekpieces ✗ YARD 14D · 3/4 hot ✓ JOCKEY · 1/4 peaks under today's rider ✓ MARKET · 2/4 unfancied

ΔMARK +5HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 110.0

sectional signature · fsp 98.8% avg over 2 timed peaks · pace 2 true · mid early (1/1)

peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 22 rated of 22 in window · 39 career)

89 · 15 Aug 26 · Ripon 6.0f · High track · Good · C4 hcp · OR 76 · 9-8 · off 14d · vs median 76 field (20 rated) · fin 1/20 · draw 10/20 (mid; day favoured high — against the bias) · BSP 7.4 steady · true-run, mid early, fsp 99.4% · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.51, n 26) · Oisin James Orr

86 · 25 Jul 26 · Chester 7.6f · Elite track · Good · C4 hcp · OR 75 · 9-12 · visor · off 10d · vs median 74 field (8 rated) · fin 2/8 · draw 1/8 (low; day favoured low) · BSP 5.4 fancied · true-run, fsp 98.2% · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.66, n 18) · Jason Hart

85 · 31 Oct 24 · Southwell 7.1f · Mid track · Std (AW) · C3 hcp · OR 86 · 9-8 · cheekpieces · off 34d · fin 5/13 · draw 11/13 (high; day favoured low — against the bias) · BSP 110.0 unfancied · yard 14d normal (A/E 1.10, n 21) · Joanna Mason

85 · 21 Apr 25 · Redcar 7.0f · Lower track · Gd/Frm · C4 hcp · OR 84 · 9-8 · cheekpieces · off 22d · fin 3/9 · draw 6/9 (mid; no day edge) · BSP 24.0 unfancied · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.60, n 21) · Joanna Mason

JORDAN ELECTRICS

today · OR 86 · draw 1 (low) · front · 20.0 (unfancied) · Lauren Young · yard 14d hot

12/18

FIT 0.67 · 3 unknowable

from 4 peaks

Much of today matches this horse's best days. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before, it runs its best at big prices — and it's a big price again today and the freshness pattern of its peaks — with the ground, the track grade, the direction, the trip, the time of year, the field size, the weight, yard form and the rider all matching its peak days. Against: a different class to its peaks; a mark above where it peaks; different headgear to its peaks. Its best recent run came at BSP 25.8 — the market never saw it coming. Unread: running style.

✓ GOING/SURF · 3/4 good-side ✓ TRACK · 3/4 Elite-tier · today High (#11) ✓ HANDED · 2/4 left ✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 6.0f±220y ✗ CLASS · 3/4 C2 · LEVEL · no peak data ✗ MARK · 3/4 in 100±3lb ✓ DRAW · 4/4 readable peaks against the bias · RACE SHAPE · no peak data · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (33% of winners) ✓ FRESHNESS · 3/4 <=14d ✓ SEASON · 2/4 summer ✓ FIELD SIZE · 4/4 big (12+) ✓ WEIGHT · 4/4 in 9-9±4lb ✗ HEADGEAR · 4/4 no headgear ✓ YARD 14D · 4/4 hot ✓ JOCKEY · 1/4 peaks under today's rider ✓ MARKET · 4/4 unfancied

ΔMARK -14HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 25.8

peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 19 rated of 19 in window · 40 career)

103 · 23 Aug 25 · York 6.0f · Elite track · Gd/Frm · C2 hcp · OR 100 · 9-9 · off 3d · fin 5/20 · draw 5/20 (low; day favoured mid — against the bias) · BSP 25.8 unfancied · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.27, n 48) · Paul Mulrennan

101 · 02 Aug 25 · Goodwood 6.0f · Elite track · Good · C2 hcp · OR 102 · 9-7 · off 7d · fin 9/27 · draw 2/27 (low; day favoured high — against the bias) · BSP 75.0 unfancied · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.44, n 31) · Paul Mulrennan

98 · 13 Sep 25 · Doncaster 5.7f · High track · Good · C2 hcp · OR 99 · 9-7 · off 21d · fin 8/21 · draw 20/21 (high; day favoured mid — against the bias) · BSP 25.8 unfancied · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.25, n 21) · Paul Mulrennan

97 · 16 Apr 26 · Newmarket 7.0f · Elite track · Good · C3 hcp · OR 90 · 9-5 · off 12d · fin 2/18 · draw 10/18 (mid; day favoured high — against the bias) · BSP 70.0 unfancied · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.48, n 23) · Lauren Young

WOVEN

today · OR 84 · draw 7 (mid) · held-up · 30.0 (unfancied) · Connor Beasley · yard 14d hot

12/18

FIT 0.67 · 1 unknowable

from 4 peaks

Much of today matches this horse's best days. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before, a mark it has peaked off and it runs its best at big prices — and it's a big price again today — with the track grade, the direction, the trip, the race shape, the field size, the weight, the headgear, yard form and the rider all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; a different class to its peaks; stronger opposition than its peaks came against; a different freshness pattern to its peaks. Its best recent run came at BSP 51.7 — the market never saw it coming. Unread: running style.

✗ GOING/SURF · 2/4 heavy ✓ TRACK · 2/4 Elite-tier · today High (#11) ✓ HANDED · 4/4 left ✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 6.0f±220y ✗ CLASS · 2/4 C4 ✗ LEVEL · 1/4 in 81±4lb ✓ MARK · 4/4 in 84±3lb ✓ DRAW · 1/4 readable peaks against the bias ✓ RACE SHAPE · 1/4 pace-on · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (33% of winners) ✗ FRESHNESS · 2/4 <=14d ✗ SEASON · 3/4 autumn ✓ FIELD SIZE · 3/4 big (12+) ✓ WEIGHT · 4/4 in 9-11±4lb ✓ HEADGEAR · 2/4 no headgear/cheekpieces ✓ YARD 14D · 3/4 hot ✓ JOCKEY · 1/4 peaks under today's rider ✓ MARKET · 3/4 unfancied

ΔMARK +0HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 51.7

sectional signature · fsp 98.6% avg over 1 timed peak · pace 1 true

peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 17 rated of 17 in window · 27 career)

97 · 09 Oct 25 · Ayr 6.0f · High track · Heavy · C4 hcp · OR 84 · 9-11 · cheekpieces · off 12d · fin 1/11 · draw 6/11 (mid; no day edge) · BSP 4.5 fancied · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.43, n 26) · S. B. Kirrane

95 · 19 Sep 25 · Ayr 6.0f · High track · Soft · C2 hcp · OR 82 · 9-9 · cheekpieces · off 13d · fin 2/25 · draw 16/25 (mid; day favoured mid) · BSP 51.7 unfancied · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.21, n 31) · Cieren Fallon

95 · 13 Jun 26 · York 6.0f · Elite track · Good · C4 hcp · OR 84 · 9-13 · off 31d · vs median 81 field (21 rated) · fin 2/21 · draw 12/21 (mid; day favoured mid) · BSP 16.3 unfancied · true-run, fsp 98.6% · yard 14d normal (A/E 0.94, n 27) · Connor Beasley

94 · 28 Sep 24 · Haydock Park 6.0f · Elite track · Heavy · C3 hcp · OR 84 · 9-10 · off 81d · fin 1/12 · draw 3/12 (low; day favoured high — against the bias) · BSP 22.8 unfancied · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.60, n 42) · Cieren Fallon

TOPWARRIOR

today · OR 90 · draw 11 (mid) · mid · 48.0 (unfancied) · Callum Rodriguez · yard 14d normal

11/18

FIT 0.61 · 1 unknowable

from 1 peak

Much of today matches this horse's best days. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before, it runs its best at big prices — and it's a big price again today and the level of opposition it peaks against — with the track grade, the direction, the trip, the class, the race shape, the field size, the headgear and yard form all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; a mark above where it peaks; a different freshness pattern to its peaks; a weight outside where it peaks. Its best recent run came at BSP 17.7 — the market never saw it coming. Unread: running style.

✗ GOING/SURF · 1/1 heavy ✓ TRACK · 1/1 Elite-tier · today High (#11) ✓ HANDED · 1/1 left ✓ TRIP · 1/1 in 6.0f±220y ✓ CLASS · 1/1 C3 ✓ LEVEL · 1/1 in 84±4lb ✗ MARK · 1/1 in 85±3lb ✓ DRAW · 1/1 readable peaks against the bias ✓ RACE SHAPE · 1/1 pace-on · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (33% of winners) ✗ FRESHNESS · 1/1 15-45d ✗ SEASON · 1/1 autumn ✓ FIELD SIZE · 1/1 big (12+) ✗ WEIGHT · 1/1 in 9-6±4lb ✓ HEADGEAR · 1/1 blinkers+tongue-tie ✓ YARD 14D · 1/1 normal ✗ JOCKEY · 0/1 peaks under today's rider ✓ MARKET · 1/1 unfancied

ΔMARK +5HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 17.7

sectional signature · fsp 95.4% avg over 1 timed peak · pace 1 true

peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (1 qualifying · 10 rated of 11 in window · 11 career)

105 · 24 Oct 25 · Newbury 6.0f · Elite track · Heavy · C3 hcp · OR 85 · 9-6 · blinkers+tongue-tie · off 27d · vs median 84 field (18 rated) · fin 1/18 · draw 7/18 (mid; day favoured low — against the bias) · BSP 17.7 unfancied · true-run, fsp 95.4% · yard 14d normal (A/E 0.93, n 26) · Rossa Ryan

YES I'M MALI

today · OR 82 · draw 8 (mid) · mid · 11.5 (steady) · Daniel Tudhope · yard 14d cold

11/18

FIT 0.61 · 2 unknowable

from 4 peaks

Much of today matches this horse's best days. For it: it has the right side of the draw, a mark it has peaked off and the freshness pattern of its peaks — with the track grade, the direction, the trip, the time of year, the weight, yard form and the rider all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; a different class to its peaks; stronger opposition than its peaks came against; a different field size to its peaks. It is 2lb above the mark it peaked off. Unread: running style.

✗ GOING/SURF · 2/4 firm-side ✓ TRACK · 3/4 Elite-tier · today High (#11) ✓ HANDED · 2/4 left/straight ✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 6.0f±220y ✗ CLASS · 3/4 C4 ✗ LEVEL · 2/4 in 77±4lb ✓ MARK · 4/4 in 80±3lb ✓ DRAW · 2/4 readable peaks with the bias · RACE SHAPE · no pattern in peaks · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (33% of winners) ✓ FRESHNESS · 2/4 15-45d/<=14d ✓ SEASON · 2/4 summer ✗ FIELD SIZE · 3/4 mid (8-11) ✓ WEIGHT · 2/4 in 9-9±4lb ✓ HEADGEAR · 4/4 no headgear ✓ YARD 14D · 2/4 cold ✓ JOCKEY · 3/4 peaks under today's rider ✗ MARKET · 2/4 fancied

ΔMARK +2

sectional signature · fsp 102.5% avg over 2 timed peaks · pace 1 true, 1 slow

peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 24 rated of 24 in window · 28 career)

92 · 04 Jul 26 · Newmarket 6.0f · Elite track · Gd/Frm · C4 hcp · OR 80 · 9-9 · off 21d · vs median 77 field (10 rated) · fin 2/10 · draw 6/10 (mid; day favoured mid) · BSP 5.7 fancied · true-run, fsp 102.5% · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.19, n 47) · Daniel Tudhope

92 · 18 Jul 26 · Newmarket 6.0f · Elite track · Gd/Frm · C4 hcp · OR 81 · 10-1 · off 14d · vs median 73 field (8 rated) · fin 2/8 · draw 4/8 (mid; no day edge) · BSP 3.4 fancied · slow-run, fsp 102.6% · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.34, n 48) · Daniel Tudhope

90 · 23 May 26 · York 6.0f · Elite track · Good · C4 hcp · OR 79 · 9-8 · off 7d · fin 2/20 · draw 11/20 (mid; no day edge) · BSP 9.4 steady · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.24, n 49) · Daniel Tudhope

87 · 17 Jan 25 · Newcastle 6.0f · High track · Slow (AW) · C2 hcp · OR 83 · 9-1 · off 19d · fin 2/9 · draw 4/9 (mid; day favoured mid) · BSP 22.0 unfancied · yard 14d normal (A/E 1.00, n 23) · Joe Fanning

KATS BOB

today · OR 76 · draw 5 (low) · prominent · 48.0 (unfancied) · Jake Dickson · yard 14d normal

10/18

FIT 0.56 · 1 unknowable

from 4 peaks

Today matches this horse's best days in places. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before, a mark it has peaked off and it runs its best at big prices — and it's a big price again today — with the track grade, the direction, the trip, the race shape, the time of year, the field size and the headgear all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; a different class to its peaks; stronger opposition than its peaks came against; a different freshness pattern to its peaks. Its best recent run came at BSP 24.6 — the market never saw it coming. Unread: running style.

✗ GOING/SURF · 3/4 firm-side ✓ TRACK · 2/4 Elite-tier · today High (#11) ✓ HANDED · 3/4 left ✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 6.0f±220y ✗ CLASS · 2/4 C4 ✗ LEVEL · 1/4 in 77±4lb ✓ MARK · 2/3 in 75±3lb ✓ DRAW · 3/4 readable peaks against the bias ✓ RACE SHAPE · 1/4 pace-on · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (33% of winners) ✗ FRESHNESS · 3/4 15-45d ✓ SEASON · 3/4 summer ✓ FIELD SIZE · 3/4 big (12+) ✗ WEIGHT · 2/4 in 9-11±4lb ✓ HEADGEAR · 4/4 visor ✗ YARD 14D · 3/4 hot ✗ JOCKEY · 0/4 peaks under today's rider ✓ MARKET · 3/4 unfancied

ΔMARK -4HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 24.6

sectional signature · fsp 97.4% avg over 1 timed peak · pace 1 true

peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 32 rated of 32 in window · 45 career)

88 · 14 Jun 25 · York 6.0f · Elite track · Gd/Frm · C4 hcp · OR 80 · 9-11 · visor · off 8d · fin 1/19 · draw 8/19 (mid; day favoured low — against the bias) · BSP 24.6 unfancied · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.93, n 27) · William Pyle

87 · 22 Apr 25 · Thirsk 6.0f · High track · Good · C5 hcp · OR 75 · 9-9 · visor · off 25d · fin 1/9 · draw 2/9 (low; day favoured high — against the bias) · BSP 6.6 steady · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.41, n 22) · William Pyle

87 · 11 Jul 26 · York 6.0f · Elite track · Gd/Frm · C4 hcp · OR 74 · 9-3 · visor · off 15d · vs median 77 field (19 rated) · fin 2/19 · draw 10/19 (mid; no day edge) · BSP 55.0 unfancied · true-run, fsp 97.4% · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.61, n 19) · William Pyle

86 · 18 Jul 25 · Hamilton Park 6.0f · High track · Gd/Frm · C2 non-hcp · OR 83 · 8-11 · visor · off 16d · fin 6/14 · draw 14/14 (high; day favoured low — against the bias) · BSP 80.0 unfancied · yard 14d normal (A/E 0.90, n 28) · William Pyle

LORD ROXBY (IRE)

today · OR 90 · draw 4 (low) · prominent · 13.5 (steady) · Alex Jary · yard 14d cold

10/18

FIT 0.56 · 2 unknowable

from 3 peaks

Today matches this horse's best days in places. For it: it has the right side of the draw, the race looks like being run the way its peaks were and the freshness pattern of its peaks — with the track grade, the direction, the trip, the class, the time of year and the rider all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; stronger opposition than its peaks came against; a mark above where it peaks; a weight outside where it peaks. Unread: running style.

✗ GOING/SURF · 2/3 firm-side ✓ TRACK · 2/3 High-tier · today High (#11) ✓ HANDED · 2/3 left ✓ TRIP · 3/3 in 6.0f±220y ✓ CLASS · 2/3 C3 ✗ LEVEL · 2/3 in 79±4lb ✗ MARK · 2/3 in 85±3lb ✓ DRAW · 2/2 low ✓ RACE SHAPE · 3/3 pace-on · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (33% of winners) ✓ FRESHNESS · 2/3 <=14d ✓ SEASON · 2/3 summer · FIELD SIZE · no pattern in peaks ✗ WEIGHT · 3/3 in 9-5±4lb ✓ HEADGEAR · 3/3 no headgear ✗ YARD 14D · 2/3 normal ✓ JOCKEY · 2/3 peaks under today's rider ✗ MARKET · 2/3 fancied

ΔMARK +5

sectional signature · fsp 97.7% avg over 3 timed peaks · pace 3 true

peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (3 qualifying · 22 rated of 22 in window · 24 career)

99 · 03 Aug 26 · Ripon 6.0f · High track · Gd/Frm · C3 hcp · OR 85 · 9-5 · off 14d · vs median 84 field (7 rated) · fin 1/7 · draw 2/7 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 4.5 fancied · true-run, fsp 98.2% · yard 14d normal (A/E 1.00, n 28) · Alex Jary

93 · 23 May 26 · York 6.0f · Elite track · Good · C4 hcp · OR 78 · 9-7 · off 14d · vs median 79 field (20 rated) · fin 1/20 · draw 6/20 (low; no day edge) · BSP 13.5 steady · true-run, fsp 95.8% · yard 14d hot (A/E 3.21, n 23) · Ethan Tindall

92 · 20 Jul 26 · Ayr 6.0f · High track · Firm · C3 hcp · OR 83 · 9-8 · off 19d · vs median 76 field (9 rated) · fin 2/9 · draw 3/9 (low; no day edge) · BSP 5.4 fancied · true-run, fsp 99.1% · yard 14d normal (A/E 0.90, n 21) · Alex Jary

VEBLEN GOOD (IRE)

today · OR 89 · draw 13 (mid) · held-up · 7.4 (steady) · Conor Whiteley · yard 14d cold

10/18

FIT 0.56 · 2 unknowable

from 4 peaks

Today matches this horse's best days in places. For it: it has the right side of the draw, a mark it has peaked off and the race looks like being run the way its peaks were — with the ground, the track grade, the direction, the trip, the time of year and the weight all matching its peak days. Against: stronger opposition than its peaks came against; a different freshness pattern to its peaks; a different field size to its peaks; today's rider has never had it at a peak. Its best recent run came at BSP 28.8 — the market never saw it coming. Unread: running style.

✓ GOING/SURF · 2/4 firm-side/good-side ✓ TRACK · 3/4 High-tier · today High (#11) ✓ HANDED · 4/4 left ✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 6.0f±220y · CLASS · no pattern in peaks ✗ LEVEL · 2/4 in 80±4lb ✓ MARK · 3/3 in 89±3lb ✓ DRAW · 2/3 readable peaks with the bias ✓ RACE SHAPE · 3/4 pace-on · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (33% of winners) ✗ FRESHNESS · 2/4 91d+ ✓ SEASON · 2/4 spring/summer ✗ FIELD SIZE · 2/4 mid (8-11) ✓ WEIGHT · 3/4 in 9-11±4lb ✓ HEADGEAR · 4/4 no headgear ✗ YARD 14D · 2/4 hot ✗ JOCKEY · 0/4 peaks under today's rider ✗ MARKET · 3/4 unfancied

ΔMARK +0HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 28.8

sectional signature · fsp 100.2% avg over 3 timed peaks · pace 3 true

peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 11 rated of 11 in window · 11 career)

99 · 25 Jul 26 · York 6.0f · Elite track · Gd/Frm · C2 hcp · OR 89 · 9-1 · off 5d · vs median 88 field (21 rated) · fin 4/21 · draw 6/21 (low; no day edge) · BSP 28.8 unfancied · true-run, fsp 99.4% · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.60, n 45) · Kieran Shoemark

95 · 08 Apr 25 · Pontefract 6.0f · High track · Good · C5 non-hcp · 9-11 · off 176d · fin 2/8 · draw 7/8 (high; day favoured high) · BSP 5.7 fancied · yard 14d normal (A/E 0.91, n 22) · Clifford Lee

95 · 29 Apr 26 · Pontefract 6.0f · High track · Good · C4 hcp · OR 87 · 9-11 · off 236d · vs median 80 field (6 rated) · fin 1/6 · draw 4/6 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 22.0 unfancied · true-run, fsp 100.2% · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.18, n 47) · C. Horgan

93 · 01 Jul 26 · Thirsk 6.0f · High track · Gd/Frm · C3 hcp · OR 89 · 10-1 · off 26d · vs median 84 field (10 rated) · fin 3/10 · draw 1/10 (low; day favoured low) · BSP 17.0 unfancied · true-run, fsp 100.9% · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.38, n 55) · Daniel Tudhope

EYE OF DUBAI

today · OR 82 · draw 19 (high) · mid · 38.0 (unfancied) · Jason Hart · yard 14d normal

8/18

FIT 0.44 · 1 unknowable

from 4 peaks

Today matches this horse's best days in places. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before and the race looks like being run the way its peaks were — with the track grade, the direction, the trip, the field size and the rider all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; a different class to its peaks; stronger opposition than its peaks came against; a mark above where it peaks. Its best recent run came at BSP 29.1 — the market never saw it coming. Unread: running style.

✗ GOING/SURF · 2/4 heavy ✓ TRACK · 4/4 High-tier · today High (#11) ✓ HANDED · 2/4 left/right ✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 6.0f±220y ✗ CLASS · 4/4 C2 ✗ LEVEL · 1/4 in 91±4lb ✗ MARK · 4/4 in 87±3lb ✓ DRAW · 1/4 readable peaks against the bias ✓ RACE SHAPE · 1/4 pace-on · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (33% of winners) ✗ FRESHNESS · 3/4 15-45d ✗ SEASON · 4/4 autumn ✓ FIELD SIZE · 3/4 big (12+) ✗ WEIGHT · 3/4 in 8-11±4lb ✓ HEADGEAR · 3/4 no headgear ✗ YARD 14D · 2/4 hot ✓ JOCKEY · 3/4 peaks under today's rider ✗ MARKET · 3/4 steady

ΔMARK -5HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 29.1

sectional signature · fsp 97.3% avg over 1 timed peak · pace 1 true

peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 21 rated of 21 in window · 26 career)

99 · 09 Nov 24 · Doncaster 6.0f · High track · Heavy · C2 hcp · OR 87 · 8-11 · off 15d · fin 1/15 · draw 14/15 (high; no day edge) · BSP 8.0 steady · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.50, n 17) · Jason Hart

97 · 27 Sep 25 · Ripon 6.0f · High track · Good · C2 hcp · OR 87 · 9-3 · cheekpieces · off 7d · fin 1/12 · draw 2/12 (low; day favoured low) · BSP 6.4 steady · yard 14d hot (A/E 2.11, n 22) · Jason Hart

97 · 08 Nov 25 · Doncaster 6.0f · High track · Heavy · C2 hcp · OR 90 · 9-0 · off 15d · vs median 91 field (22 rated) · fin 2/22 · draw 18/22 (high; no day edge) · BSP 29.1 unfancied · true-run, fsp 97.3% · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.56, n 16) · Jason Hart

95 · 28 Sep 24 · Ripon 6.0f · High track · Gd/Sft · C2 hcp · OR 84 · 8-9 · off 30d · fin 1/11 · draw 4/11 (low; day favoured mid — against the bias) · BSP 6.2 steady · yard 14d normal (A/E 1.13, n 17) · P. J. McDonald

NOVELLO LAD

today · OR 88 · draw 16 (high) · mid · 50.0 (unfancied) · David Nolan · yard 14d hot

8/18

FIT 0.44 · 6 unknowable

from 2 peaks

Today matches this horse's best days in places. For it: the race looks like being run the way its peaks were and the freshness pattern of its peaks — with the track grade, the direction, the trip, the field size and the rider all matching its peak days. Against: a different class to its peaks; stronger opposition than its peaks came against; the draw worked for it at its peaks and is against it today; the market treats it differently to its peak days. It is 3lb above the mark it peaked off. Unread: running style and the ground.

· GOING/SURF · no pattern in peaks ✓ TRACK · 2/2 High-tier · today High (#11) ✓ HANDED · 2/2 left ✓ TRIP · 2/2 in 6.0f±220y ✗ CLASS · 2/2 C4 ✗ LEVEL · 2/2 in 79±4lb · MARK · no pattern in peaks ✗ DRAW · 2/2 readable peaks with the bias ✓ RACE SHAPE · 2/2 pace-on · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (33% of winners) ✓ FRESHNESS · 2/2 15-45d · SEASON · no pattern in peaks ✓ FIELD SIZE · 2/2 big (12+) · WEIGHT · no pattern in peaks ✓ HEADGEAR · 2/2 no headgear · YARD 14D · no pattern in peaks ✓ JOCKEY · 1/2 peaks under today's rider ✗ MARKET · 2/2 steady

ΔMARK +3

sectional signature · fsp 100.5% avg over 2 timed peaks · pace 2 true

peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (2 qualifying · 16 rated of 16 in window · 24 career)

98 · 05 Jun 26 · Doncaster 6.0f · High track · Gd/Frm · C4 hcp · OR 85 · 9-9 · off 20d · vs median 79 field (13 rated) · fin 1/13 · draw 2/13 (low; day favoured low) · BSP 7.4 steady · true-run, fsp 100.7% · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.39, n 24) · David Nolan

96 · 16 May 26 · Doncaster 6.0f · High track · Gd/Sft · C4 hcp · OR 77 · 9-1 · off 23d · vs median 80 field (12 rated) · fin 1/12 · draw 4/12 (low; day favoured low) · BSP 6.6 steady · true-run, fsp 100.3% · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.92, n 14) · Billy Garritty

WE NEVER STOP (IRE)

today · OR 87 · draw 2 (low) · mid · 50.0 (unfancied) · Kevin Stott · yard 14d normal

6/18

FIT 0.33 · 4 unknowable

from 4 peaks

Only parts of today look like this horse's best days. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before, the headgear it peaks in and the freshness pattern of its peaks — with the track grade, the direction and the trip all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; a different class to its peaks; a mark above where it peaks; a weight outside where it peaks. Its best recent run came at BSP 20.2 — the market never saw it coming. Unread: running style.

✗ GOING/SURF · 4/4 AW ✓ TRACK · 3/4 Mid-tier · today High (#11) ✓ HANDED · 4/4 left ✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 6.0f±220y ✗ CLASS · 4/4 C2 · LEVEL · no peak data ✗ MARK · 2/3 in 95±3lb ✓ DRAW · 2/3 readable peaks against the bias · RACE SHAPE · no peak data · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (33% of winners) ✓ FRESHNESS · 3/4 15-45d ✗ SEASON · 2/4 spring ✗ FIELD SIZE · 2/4 mid (8-11) ✗ WEIGHT · 3/4 in 9-0±4lb ✓ HEADGEAR · 3/4 cheekpieces · YARD 14D · no pattern in peaks ✗ JOCKEY · 0/4 peaks under today's rider ✗ MARKET · 2/4 fancied

ΔMARK -8HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 20.2

peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 19 rated of 21 in window · 30 career)

104 · 18 Apr 25 · Newcastle 6.0f · High track · Std (AW) · C2 hcp · OR 95 · 8-11 · cheekpieces · off 35d · fin 1/14 · draw 2/14 (low; day favoured high — against the bias) · BSP 20.2 unfancied · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.70, n 25) · Shane Gray

103 · 14 Mar 25 · Southwell 6.1f · Mid track · Std (AW) · C2 hcp · OR 91 · 9-0 · cheekpieces · off 34d · fin 1/11 · draw 10/11 (high; no day edge) · BSP 8.4 steady · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.15, n 11) · Shane Gray

100 · 14 Dec 24 · Southwell 6.1f · Mid track · Std (AW) · C2 non-hcp · 9-4 · blinkers · off 42d · fin 2/4 · stall 5 (4 ran) (small field — no draw read) · BSP 2.6 fancied · yard 14d normal (A/E 0.88, n 11) · Shane Gray

100 · 26 Nov 25 · Southwell 6.1f · Mid track · Std (AW) · C2 hcp · OR 95 · 9-9 · cheekpieces · off 67d · fin 4/9 · draw 3/9 (low; day favoured mid — against the bias) · BSP 3.2 fancied · Shane Gray

Not profiled — insufficient recent form (never a guess)

DEEP HAVANA no career runs in the results database — nothing to profile

DURHAM CASTLE career too short to profile — 7 runs in the results database (need 8)

ANYASI career too short to profile — 3 runs in the results database (need 8)

STARMADE (IRE) career too short to profile — 7 runs in the results database (need 8)

ART LOVER (IRE) career too short to profile — 6 runs in the results database (need 8)

BIG CYRIL (IRE) career too short to profile — 7 runs in the results database (need 8)

COUNTY CARLOW (IRE) career too short to profile — 5 runs in the results database (need 8)

THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 45% · miss 38% · n=781

ON THE MEASURED READS

Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. NOVELLO LAD is the one to beat it — an edge ANYASI lacks: fits the winner profile on recency.

Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours. Measured: editorial-family reads sit in the generic bucket that grades 42.0% hit v 48.1% for horse-specific measured reads (C7 gate) — argument, weighted below the measurements.

Worth A Second Look graded 29% · miss 71% · n=846 · null 50%

These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.

STARMADE (IRE) FIGURE #9

Ed Dunlop's runners on turf win 14.3% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.

TOPWARRIOR FIGURE #13

Ralph Beckett's runners dropping in class win 29.7% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Ralph Beckett's runners above their last winning mark win 18.2% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.

EYE OF DUBAI FIGURE #16

drops in class and returns quickly — the two angles our testing shows genuinely tighten a profile.

DEEP HAVANA FIGURE #

Hamad Al Jehani's runners on turf win 13.7% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.

4 / 4Horse Profilesevery runner in full — career, conditions, clock and market

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 ANYASI MID

DRAW 20 · OR 90 · Ray Dawson / Roger Varian

MARKET 4.6 · the market rates it a 22% chance

Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−

97.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

66SPEED FIGURE · =18 OF 20 READ

6.70

FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE

we make it a 15% chance

MED DATA · 3 runs

BOTTOM LINE

Top on the figures, 1pt clear of the next, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; the 5th-strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

97.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 97

Speed Figure (FSF)

66 latest (4 Jul 26)

Official mark (OR)

90 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 3 tries · beats market expectation (1.69)

Days since last run

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.7s) · best on the clock in its race
Usually races prominent-closer

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 101.75% (holds late)

Course fit today

suits today's track (finishing profile vs what this course demands)

The level · v projected winning figure

best in the last 18 months 97 (55d ago · 6f · Cl4) — 5pts short of the projected 102. 34% of winning 3yos in 3yo+ handicaps had shown the level first (66% won without). 1 of the field unraced/unexposed — the level read covers only the raced portion; an unexposed runner wins 10% of such races.

Course scale · class context

steps up 19 places on the course scale (LEICESTER 30th → THIRSK 11th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale

1stClass 4 · 6frated 971stClass 4 · 6frated 913rdClass 4 · 7frated 72

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 3 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 10 Aug 25: 50 · 11 Jun 26: 46 · 4 Jul 26: 66

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Roger Varian · 1266 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.3 on the exchange

Signature angle: on their 3rd run back after a long break, off a falsely-run (hidden) last run, with a runner returning from 60+ days off

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 2 of 2 reverse in 2026

In Class 1-3 company ⇆58/40814.2%0.9026/11522.6%1.17

At this time of year (Q3) ⇆61/37916.1%0.8527/9129.7%1.15

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · all 2 hold in both windows

Over 5-6f trips ✦28/19814.1%0.865/3414.7%0.85

Coming back after 46 to 90 days15/9316.1%0.874/2317.4%0.95

Too few runners to read reliably

At Thirsk ⇆ (small sample)3/1030.0%1.050/50.0%0.95

In fields of 16+ (small sample)4/557.3%1.004/1921.1%1.16

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 97 is 5pts short of the projected ~102 needs figure

The rider

Ray Dawson · last 14 days: 6/32 · at Thirsk: A/E 0.94 (n6, raw 0) · with this yard: A/E 0.97 (n327, raw 0.96)

ConsensusFIG 1READ 8VAL 9POW 6MKT 12 of 5 instruments have him top-2

Clock readWATCH — last run ran better than the bare result on a pace-adjusted sectional read · STRONG UPGRADE → back today

LEAD READLead chance ~2% (model 2% through the measured curve · last 3 timed runs · 18 read)

Market path4.64.6 (09:06→15:30, steady, 27 snaps)

V course clockclosing speed 101.8% v course avg 100.6% (+1.1) · top speed 40.4mph v 40.5 (−0.1)

Stride-fitcareer stride 7.25m (n 3) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — FITS the track

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 86 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=12733

Speed · vs its fields1st of 18

+0.49 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 40.4 raw

Break · 0-20mph13th of 17

+0.31s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · finishing power5th of 17

59pct

Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 101.8% is vs its own average · +3.0 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.16× chance (9,385 runs)

Stride length17th of 18

7.26 m

Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.354 m on this surface (−0.09 m) · −0.25 m vs today’s field — that band wins 1.02× chance at sharp tracks like this (3,854 runs)

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

4 Jul 26Leicester6fGd/Frm41st9766——True40.9+0.02100.7+0.14

11 Jun 26Yarmouth6fSoft41st9146——Slow early39.2+1.46106.6+0.24

10 Aug 25Leicester7fFirm43rd7250——Slow early41.1-0.0198.0+0.56

The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result

DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?

4 Jul 261.491.40STABLE1st of 61st£195.1k£257k76%1.52ran to expectation

11 Jun 263.052.35STABLE1st of 81st£123.6k£272k45%2.50ran to expectation

10 Aug 2511.3925.00DRIFT4th of 63rd£8.3k£344k2%17.00ran to expectation

Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the house steam/drift read between them. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).

Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above

4 Jul clean · 11 Jun clean · 10 Aug finished strongly, outpaced then kept on (trip signal)

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.21slow2f+0.15very slow3f+0.19slow4f+0.02fast5fledfast6fledfast

Timed runs 2025-08-10 to 2026-07-04. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead.

Data gaps · never met today's rivals

Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayThe top rating in this field (97.0)Improving fast — last run rated 97, 10pts above his recent average of 86.7Only 3 runs at this distanceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance

LTO comment

“in touch, quickened to lead over 1f out, pushed out”

#2 DURHAM CASTLE MID START EXCUSE · VET-REJECTED

DRAW 12 · OR 90 · Callum Shepherd / Simon & Ed Crisford

MARKET backed 27 → 21 · the market rates it a 5% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−

96.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

69SPEED FIGURE · =13 OF 20 READ

14.77

FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE

we make it a 7% chance

BOTTOM LINE

2nd on the figures, 1pt off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; solid late gains (2nd of 17 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

96.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 101

Speed Figure (FSF)

67 latest (15 Jun 26) · best 69 (last 6)

Official mark (OR)

90 · last won off 89

Record at today's distance

3 wins from 7 tries · beats market expectation (1.61)

Days since last run

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s)
Usually races prominent-closer

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 100.84% (holds late)

Course fit today

suits today's track (finishing profile vs what this course demands)

The level · v projected winning figure

has run to 100 (438d ago · 6.05f · Cl3) — within 2pts of the projected 102. 72% of winning horses aged 5+ in 3yo+ handicaps had shown it at some point. 1 of the field unraced/unexposed — the level read covers only the raced portion; an unexposed runner wins 10% of such races.

Field strength · class context

Sits 4lb above today's median (OR 90 v field 86) · a field 4lb stronger than last time (median 82 then) (WINDSOR · 15 Jun 26)

Headgear

Tongue strap

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale

6thClass 3 · 6f22yrated 965thClass 3 · 6frated 921stClass 3 · 6f22yrated 1007thClass 3 · 6frated 851stClass 4 · 6frated 101

Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time

FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 18 Aug 24: 65 · 3 Sep 24: 68 · 31 May 25: 69 · 16 Jun 25: 68 · 28 Mar 26: 64 · 15 Jun 26: 67

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Simon & Ed Crisford · 1036 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.8 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 4 of 5 reverse in 2026

Over 5-6f trips ⇆43/19821.7%0.9714/5525.5%1.18

In Class 1-3 company ⇆34/26612.8%0.9617/10017.0%1.18

At this time of year (Q3) ✦62/30620.3%1.1320/8423.8%1.18

Changing jockey from the last run ⇆67/41516.1%0.9524/14316.8%1.13

Above their last winning mark ⇆22/15414.3%0.975/4112.2%1.05

Too few runners to read reliably

At Thirsk ⇆ (small sample)3/1127.3%1.050/20.0%0.98

In fields of 16+ (small sample)2/336.1%0.980/170.0%0.85

Coming back after 46 to 90 days ⇆ (small sample)9/7212.5%0.843/1717.6%1.04

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 101 is 1pt short of the projected ~102 needs figure

The rider

Callum Shepherd · last 14 days: 1/34 · at Thirsk: A/E 0.90 (n11, raw 0) · with this yard: A/E 0.89 (n42, raw 0.72)

ConsensusFIG 2READ 2VAL 2POW 2MKT 94 of 5 instruments have him top-2

LEAD READLead chance ~2% (model 2% through the measured curve · last 6 timed runs · 18 read)

Market path2721 (09:06→15:30, backed, 27 snaps)

V course clockclosing speed 100.8% v course avg 100.6% (+0.2) · top speed 41.2mph v 40.5 (+0.8)

Stride-fitcareer stride 7.68m (n 6) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — action matches the extreme

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 86 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=12733

Speed · vs its fields9th of 18

+0.07 mph

About the level of its fields · 41.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph8th of 17

+0.15s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · finishing power2nd of 17

66pct

Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 100.8% is vs its own average · +2.1 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.16× chance (9,385 runs)

Stride length8th of 18

7.59 m

Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.354 m on this surface (+0.24 m) · about level with today’s field (+0.08 m)

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

15 Jun 26Windsor6f12yGd/Frm36th96679282True42.5-0.0298.0+0.37

28 Mar 26Kempton Park6fStd35th92649386True40.5-0.59100.1+0.21

16 Jun 25Windsor6f12yGd/Frm31st100688985.5True42.0-0.2399.1+0.07

3 Sep 24Goodwood6fGood41st101688079True41.5+0.11100.7+0.13

18 Aug 24Southwell6f16yStd51st8965——True40.2+0.90106.6+0.22

4 May 24Yarmouth6fGd/Sft53rd—67——True40.9+0.27100.4-0.08

The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result

DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?

15 Jun 265.609.60DRIFT4th of 126th£36.8k£206k18%8.00ran to expectation

28 Mar 264.363.88STABLE1st of 115th£60.4k£222k27%4.80well backed, flopped — no pace excuse on the clock

16 Jun 252.712.36STABLE1st of 61st£144.2k£283k51%4.00ran to expectation

3 Sep 243.493.23STABLE1st of 101st£163.8k£342k48%13.50ran to expectation

18 Aug 243.052.50STABLE1st of 131st£95.6k£213k45%2.38ran to expectation

4 May 246.926.44STABLE3rd of 93rd£21.6k£126k17%3.70ran to expectation

Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above

15 Jun kept on, outpaced then kept on (trip signal) · 28 Mar hung under pressure, kept on · 16 Jun kept on · 3 Sep checked in running, finished strongly · 18 Aug finished strongly · 4 May hampered, hung under pressure, kept on

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.29fast2f+0.36par3f+0.32par4f+0.31par5f+0.32slow6f+0.45slow

Timed runs 2024-05-04 to 2026-06-15.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3130 · null 50%

WOVEN · 1 meeting≈ 1.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

31 May 25 · 6f · Good — finished 7th vs 11th, 3L ahead · OR 89 v 86 · race median 87.5 (today 86)

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+1.8L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs WE NEVER STOP (IRE) (read through INDIAN RUN, TRILBY, BALDOMERO, CHANGE SINGS) ≈ +5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs NOVELLO LAD (read through INDIAN RUN, TRILBY, BALDOMERO, GRANT WOOD) ≈ +5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs KATS BOB (read through ALPHA MAGIC, TRILBY, GRANT WOOD, DAKOTA GOLD) ≈ +4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs TOPWARRIOR (read through UNCLE DON, FLEETWATER, FINE INTERVIEW, TRILBY) ≈ +4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 3 todayRated #2 in this field (96.0)Lost roughly 1.7 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“mid-division, pushed along over 2f out, plugged on final 1f”

#3 VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) HELD-UP

DRAW 13 · OR 89 · Conor Whiteley / David O'Meara

MARKET 7.4 · the market rates it a 13% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−

95 FORMLAB FIGURE

74SPEED FIGURE · =4 OF 20 READ

10.38

FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE

we make it a 10% chance

BOTTOM LINE

3rd on the figures, 2pts off the top, ahead of the rivals it has met on collateral form; habitually slow from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

95 · ranked #3 here · career best 99

Speed Figure (FSF)

65 latest (16 Aug 26) · best 74 (last 6)

Official mark (OR)

89 · last won off 87

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 11 tries · beats market expectation (1.29)

Days since last run

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races held-up closer

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 98.98% (one-paced late)

Course fit today

reads against today's track (run style vs how races develop here)

The level · v projected winning figure

best in the last 18 months 99 (34d ago · 6f · Cl2) — 3pts short of the projected 102. 58% of winning 4yos in 3yo+ handicaps had shown the level first (42% won without). 1 of the field unraced/unexposed — the level read covers only the raced portion; an unexposed runner wins 10% of such races.

Course scale · class context

steps up 7 places on the course scale (PONTEFRACT 18th → THIRSK 11th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Field strength · class context

Sits 3lb above today's median (OR 89 v field 86) · a field 4lb stronger than last time (median 82 then) (PONTEFRACT · 16 Aug 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale

4thClass 3 · 6frated 934thClass 2 · 6frated 993rdClass 3 · 6frated 933rdClass 3 · 6frated 9313thClass 2 · 7frated 63

Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time

FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 29 Apr 26: 64 · 5 Jun 26: 61 · 1 Jul 26: 68 · 20 Jul 26: 60 · 25 Jul 26: 74 · 16 Aug 26: 65

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

David O'Meara · 2341 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions · all 1 hold in both windows

At Thirsk20/7526.7%1.284/2913.8%1.05

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 1 of 3 reverse in 2026

In fields of 16+4/1892.1%0.671/741.4%0.79

In Class 1-3 company ✦44/5817.6%0.889/1914.7%0.70

At this time of year (Q3) ⇆94/68313.8%1.0320/19710.2%0.88

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 99 is 3pts short of the projected ~102 needs figure

The rider

Conor Whiteley · last 14 days: 1/11 · at Thirsk: A/E 1.04 (n6, raw 1.67) · with this yard: A/E 1.19 (n42, raw 1.55)

ConsensusFIG 3READ 9VAL 8POW 6MKT 21 of 5 instruments have him top-2

BHA markDROPPED -1lb in this week’s handicap revisions · 89 → 88

PACE FITFIT — hold-up type with the projected pace collapse in his favour · fit runners beat their published rank by +0.4 places (213-race gate)

LEAD READLead chance ~1% (model 1% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 18 read)

Market path77.4 (09:06→15:30, drifting, 27 snaps)

V course clockclosing speed 99.0% v course avg 100.6% (−1.6) · top speed 40.8mph v 40.5 (+0.3)

Stride-fitcareer stride 7.55m (n 10) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — action matches the extreme

Receiptslast read Pontefract 16 Aug: figure ✗ · class ✗ · pace ✗ · h2h ✓ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 86 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=12733

Speed · vs its fields7th of 18

+0.12 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.8 raw

Break · 0-20mph15th of 17

+0.36s

Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · finishing power5th of 17

59pct

Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 99.0% is vs its own average · +0.2 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.02× chance (13,862 runs)

Stride length10th of 18

7.55 m

Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.354 m on this surface (+0.20 m) · about level with today’s field (+0.04 m)

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

16 Aug 26Pontefract6fGd/Frm34th93658982True39.4-0.1899.9+0.22

25 Jul 26York6fGd/Frm24th99748988True41.4+0.1099.4+0.49

20 Jul 26Ayr6fFirm33rd93608976True42.0-0.2198.6+0.40

1 Jul 26Thirsk6fGd/Frm33rd93688983.5True42.2+0.27100.9+0.38

5 Jun 26Epsom Downs7fGd/Sft213th63619088Fast early41.2+0.5994.8+0.68

29 Apr 26Pontefract6fGood41st95648780True39.2+0.15100.2+0.01

The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result

DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?

16 Aug 264.034.00STABLE2nd of 94th£68.4k£225k30%3.55ran to expectation

25 Jul 2628.5928.83STABLE8th of 214th£8.8k£366k2%20.00outran the market

20 Jul 264.894.90STABLE2nd of 93rd£54.0k£257k21%2.18ran to expectation

1 Jul 2611.5517.00DRIFT7th of 103rd£9.5k£200k5%13.00outran the market

5 Jun 2651.2630.67STABLE12th of 1613th£6.5k£368k2%26.00ran to expectation

29 Apr 267.5922.00DRIFT6th of 61st£10.6k£227k5%40.00outran the market

Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above

16 Aug finished strongly · 25 Jul clean · 20 Jul raced too keenly, late headway · 1 Jul had to switch · 5 Jun never on terms · 29 Apr late headway

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.50par2f+0.60slow3f+0.61par4f+0.73par5f+0.61par6f+0.42par

Timed runs 2026-04-29 to 2026-08-16.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3130 · null 50%

NOVELLO LAD · 2 meetings≈ 7.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

25 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 17th, 7.55L ahead · OR 89 v 89 · race median 88 (today 86)

YES I'M MALI · 2 meetings≈ 1.2L ahead on today's terms · confirms

16 Aug 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 5th, 0.2L ahead · OR 89 v 82 · race median 82 (today 86)

LORD ROXBY (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 2.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

20 Jul 26 · 6f · Firm — finished 3rd vs 2nd, 1.25L behind · OR 89 v 83 · race median 76 (today 86)

WE NEVER STOP (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 17.1L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

25 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 21st, 17.05L ahead · OR 89 v 87 · race median 88 (today 86)

JORDAN ELECTRICS · 1 meeting≈ 0.4L behind on today's terms · reverses

20 Jul 26 · 6f · Firm — finished 3rd vs 1st, 2L behind · OR 89 v 82 · race median 76 (today 86)

Read through a common rival

vs STARMADE (IRE) (read through GENTLE GEORGE, RED SPELLS DANGER) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs TOPWARRIOR (read through APOLLO ONE, TRILBY, HAVANA RUM, THE CALTONIAN) ≈ +3L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs MANILA SCOUSE (read through ALPHA MAGIC, THE GOOD BISCUIT, ETERNAL SUNSHINE, BERGERAC) ≈ +3L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs KATS BOB (read through THE GOOD BISCUIT, TRILBY, MISTER SOX, BERGERAC) ≈ +2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 3 todayRated #3 in this field (95)Proven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 1.29)Stable in form this week — 3 wins from 20 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.67x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 12 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“held up, pushed along 2f out, came wide early in straight, stayed on”

#4 LORD ROXBY (IRE) PROMINENT

DRAW 4 · OR 90 · Alex Jary / Nigel Tinkler

MARKET 13.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−

94 FORMLAB FIGURE

75SPEED FIGURE · =1 OF 20 READ

7.49

FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE

we make it a 13% chance

BOTTOM LINE

4th on the figures, 3pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; a yard out of form.

FormLab Figure

94 · ranked #4 here · career best 99

Speed Figure (FSF)

71 latest (15 Aug 26) · best 75 (last 6)

Official mark (OR)

90 · last won off 85

Record at today's distance

4 wins from 23 tries · beats market expectation (1.31)

Days since last run

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s)
Usually races front-runner

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 97.71% (one-paced late)

Course fit today

no strong lean either way

The level · v projected winning figure

best in the last 18 months 99 (25d ago · 6f · Cl3) — 3pts short of the projected 102. 58% of winning 4yos in 3yo+ handicaps had shown the level first (42% won without). 1 of the field unraced/unexposed — the level read covers only the raced portion; an unexposed runner wins 10% of such races.

Field strength · class context

Sits 4lb above today's median (OR 90 v field 86) · a field 3lb weaker than last time (median 89 then) (RIPON · 15 Aug 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale

3rdClass 2 · 6frated 911stClass 3 · 6frated 992ndClass 3 · 6frated 925thClass 3 · 6frated 854thClass 4 · 6frated 87

Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time

FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 23 May 26: 73 · 13 Jun 26: 70 · 1 Jul 26: 66 · 20 Jul 26: 62 · 3 Aug 26: 75 · 15 Aug 26: 71

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Nigel Tinkler · 1092 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.6 on the exchange

Signature angle: with a runner returning from 60+ days off

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 2 of 2 reverse in 2026

In fields of 16+ ⇆0/450.0%0.682/2010.0%1.07

Coming back after 8 to 14 days ⇆14/2156.5%0.827/6111.5%1.07

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 1 of 3 reverse in 2026

In Class 1-3 company ⇆10/9111.0%1.341/342.9%0.87

Above their last winning mark ✦23/20711.1%0.997/907.8%0.84

At Thirsk2/405.0%0.991/214.8%0.98

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 99 is 3pts short of the projected ~102 needs figure

The rider

Alex Jary · last 14 days: 0/18 · at Thirsk: A/E 1.06 (n40, raw 1.32) · with this yard: A/E 1.12 (n414, raw 1.15)

ConsensusFIG 4READ 5VAL 5POW 11MKT 40 of 5 instruments have him top-2

PACE FITCLASH — forward type into a projected pace collapse · clash runners have run 1.3 places worse than ranked (213-race gate)

LEAD READLead chance ~1% (model 1% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 18 read)

Market path1313.5 (09:06→15:30, steady, 27 snaps)

V course clockclosing speed 97.7% v course avg 100.6% (−2.9) · top speed 42.5mph v 40.5 (+2.0)

Stride-fitcareer stride 7.58m (n 24) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — action matches the extreme

Receiptslast read Ripon 15 Aug: figure ✓ · energy ✓ · connections ✓ · class ≈ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 86 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=12733

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 18

+0.20 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 42.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 17

+0.09s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · finishing power10th of 17

54pct

Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 97.7% is vs its own average · −1.1 vs today’s field — that band wins 0.95× chance (9,444 runs)

Stride length1st of 18

7.75 m

Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.354 m on this surface (+0.40 m) · +0.24 m vs today’s field — that band wins 1.00× chance at sharp tracks like this (3,850 runs) — a stride edge has paid nothing at sharp tracks

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

15 Aug 26Ripon6fGood23rd91719089True42.3+0.1696.9—

3 Aug 26Ripon6fGd/Frm31st99758584True42.5+0.3298.2—

20 Jul 26Ayr6fFirm32nd92628376True42.6+0.3399.1+0.11

1 Jul 26Thirsk6fGd/Frm35th85668483.5True42.0+0.09100.0+0.00

13 Jun 26York6fGood44th87708481True42.4+0.1296.3+0.12

23 May 26York6fGood41st93737879True43.3+0.1795.8+0.12

The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result

DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?

15 Aug 267.184.68STABLE1st of 143rd£77.2k£352k22%3.60ran to expectation

3 Aug 265.694.52STABLE2nd of 71st£56.0k£286k20%2.02ran to expectation

20 Jul 266.575.40STABLE3rd of 92nd£34.6k£257k13%5.00ran to expectation

1 Jul 268.317.47STABLE5th of 105th£21.5k£200k11%30.00ran to expectation

13 Jun 2617.3113.43STABLE4th of 214th£18.7k£261k7%12.50ran to expectation

23 May 2612.9613.50STABLE4th of 201st£13.1k£175k7%7.60outran the market

Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above

15 Aug kept on · 3 Aug finished strongly · 20 Jul raced too keenly, kept on · 1 Jul no extra · 13 Jun kept on · 23 May finished strongly

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.02fast2f+0.02fast3f+0.05par4fledpar5f+0.15slow6f+0.51slow

Timed runs 2026-05-23 to 2026-08-15. · 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3130 · null 50%

YES I'M MALI · 3 meetings≈ 8.4L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 4th vs 19th, 10.45L ahead · OR 84 v 81 · race median 81 (today 86)

KATS BOB · 2 meetings≈ 7.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 4th vs 20th, 10.65L ahead · OR 84 v 77 · race median 81 (today 86)

MANILA SCOUSE · 2 meetings≈ 35.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

15 Aug 26 · 6f · Good — finished 3rd vs 14th, 36.4L ahead · OR 90 v 85 · race median 89 (today 86)

VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 2.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

20 Jul 26 · 6f · Firm — finished 2nd vs 3rd, 1.25L ahead · OR 83 v 89 · race median 76 (today 86)

TOPWARRIOR · 1 meeting · n/a

28 Jun 25 · 6f · Good — finished 8th vs 13th, 12.6L ahead · OR 85 v 86 · race median 81.5 (today 86) · stale — 14m ago, not in the read

WOVEN · 1 meeting≈ 4.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 4th vs 2nd, 1.75L behind · OR 84 v 84 · race median 81 (today 86)

EYE OF DUBAI · 1 meeting≈ 10.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

15 Aug 26 · 6f · Good — finished 3rd vs 13th, 11.4L ahead · OR 90 v 85 · race median 89 (today 86)

JORDAN ELECTRICS · 1 meeting≈ 1.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

20 Jul 26 · 6f · Firm — finished 2nd vs 1st, 0.75L behind · OR 83 v 82 · race median 76 (today 86)

NOVELLO LAD · 1 meeting≈ 5.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

1 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 8th, 7.75L ahead · OR 84 v 89 · race median 83.5 (today 86)

THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — CONFIRMS strongly vs 8 rival(s) met (+5.1L adj, 12 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs WE NEVER STOP (IRE) (read through TRILBY, DARK CLOUD RISING, COMMANCHE FALLS, ROUSING ENCORE) ≈ +5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs DURHAM CASTLE (read through INDIAN RUN, TRILBY, DAKOTA GOLD, GRANT WOOD) ≈ -2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs WOODSTOCK (read through GRANT WOOD, MISTER SOX, IRISH NECTAR, U SURE DO) ≈ +1L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

5lb above his last winning mark (90 today vs 85)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 3 todayDrops in class todayProven over the trip (23 tries, beats market expectation at 1.31)Stable cold this week — 0 wins from 10 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.32x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“pressed leader, ridden 2f out, not quicken final 1f”

#5 JORDAN ELECTRICS FRONT

DRAW 1 · OR 86 · Lauren Young / Jim Goldie

MARKET backed 32 → 20 · the market rates it a 5% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−

92.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

75SPEED FIGURE · =1 OF 20 READ

15.14

FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE

we make it a 7% chance

BOTTOM LINE

5th on the figures, 5pts off the top, early sectional positions fit the dominant style here; tends to burn early and empty out.

FormLab Figure

92.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 109

Speed Figure (FSF)

66 latest (21 Aug 26) · best 75 (last 6)

Official mark (OR)

86 · last won off 82

Record at today's distance

11 wins from 40 tries · beats market expectation (2.36)

Days since last run

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races front-runner

Run style & finish

Front-runner · finishing speed 98.42% (one-paced late)

Course fit today

suits today's track (run style vs how races develop here)

The level · v projected winning figure

has run to 103 (370d ago · 6f · Cl2) — 1pt ABOVE the projected 102. 72% of winning horses aged 5+ in 3yo+ handicaps had shown it at some point. 1 of the field unraced/unexposed — the level read covers only the raced portion; an unexposed runner wins 10% of such races.

Course scale · class context

steps up 5 places on the course scale (HAMILTON PARK 16th → THIRSK 11th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Field strength · class context

Sits level with today's median (OR 86 v field 86) · a near-level field move (+0lb) on last time (HAMILTON PARK · 21 Aug 26)

Headgear

Cheekpieces

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale

3rdClass 3 · 5frated 921stClass 3 · 6frated 943rdClass 2 · 6frated 878thClass 4 · 6frated 824thClass 4 · 5frated 82

Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time

FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 30 May 26: 70 · 17 Jun 26: 61 · 6 Jul 26: 61 · 17 Jul 26: 75 · 20 Jul 26: 63 · 21 Aug 26: 66

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Jim Goldie · 1696 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.0 on the exchange

Signature angle: at Hamilton Park, keeping the same jockey, without a recent yard winner

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 6 of 6 reverse in 2026

In fields of 16+ ⇆8/7211.1%1.281/313.2%0.91

Over 5-6f trips ⇆75/45716.4%1.3215/2057.3%0.74

At this time of year (Q3) ⇆74/44416.7%1.2516/1858.6%0.78

Coming back after within 7 days ⇆45/19523.1%1.2610/8112.3%0.84

Above their last winning mark ⇆106/52420.2%1.3423/22710.1%0.80

Changing jockey from the last run ⇆79/69611.4%1.0628/2969.5%0.87

Too few runners to read reliably

At Thirsk ⇆ (small sample)5/1827.8%1.301/147.1%0.99

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 109 at/around today's trip, clears the projected ~102 needs figure

The rider

Lauren Young · last 14 days: 2/13 · at Thirsk: A/E 1.10 (n10, raw 2.22) · with this yard: A/E 1.13 (n353, raw 1.17)

ConsensusFIG 5READ 3VAL 3POW 13MKT 80 of 5 instruments have him top-2

Clock readWATCH — last run ran better than the bare result on a pace-adjusted sectional read · UPGRADE → note today

PACE FITCLASH — forward type into a projected pace collapse · clash runners have run 1.3 places worse than ranked (213-race gate)

LEAD READLead chance ~22% (model 27% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 18 read)

Market path3220 (09:06→15:30, backed, 27 snaps)

V course clockclosing speed 98.4% v course avg 100.6% (−2.2) · top speed 42.1mph v 40.5 (+1.6)

Stride-fitcareer stride 7.60m (n 31) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — action matches the extreme

Receiptslast read Hamilton Park 21 Aug: figure ✓ · connections ✓ · class ≈ · h2h ✓ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 86 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=12733

Speed · vs its fields17th of 18

-0.23 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 42.1 raw

Break · 0-20mph7th of 17

+0.13s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · finishing power12th of 17

53pct

Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 98.4% is vs its own average · −0.3 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.02× chance (13,862 runs)

Stride length2nd of 18

7.71 m

Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.354 m on this surface (+0.36 m) · +0.20 m vs today’s field — that band wins 1.00× chance at sharp tracks like this (3,850 runs) — a stride edge has paid nothing at sharp tracks

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

21 Aug 26Hamilton Park5fGd/Sft33rd92668686True43.4+0.1095.9+0.24

20 Jul 26Ayr6fFirm31st94638276True41.6-0.6298.5-0.22

17 Jul 26Hamilton Park6fGd/Frm23rd87758488True42.0-0.3599.9+0.22

6 Jul 26Ayr6fGd/Frm48th82618479True42.9+0.0595.2+0.11

17 Jun 26Hamilton Park5fGd/Sft44th82618678.5True43.5-0.0197.8+0.31

30 May 26Carlisle5f182yGd/Frm35th86708883.5True39.5-0.58103.1+0.14

The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result

DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?

21 Aug 2610.3212.00DRIFT6th of 113rd£17.8k£157k11%7.00outran the market

20 Jul 263.824.52DRIFT1st of 91st£84.4k£257k33%8.60ran to expectation

17 Jul 265.884.84STABLE2nd of 73rd£46.1k£210k22%2.76ran to expectation

6 Jul 268.987.42STABLE2nd of 178th£34.7k£208k17%100.00underran the market

17 Jun 267.4911.11DRIFT6th of 84th£14.2k£179k8%8.00ran to expectation

30 May 2610.509.25STABLE4th of 145th£34.5k£261k13%5.20ran to expectation

Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above

21 Aug finished strongly · 20 Jul kept on · 17 Jul kept on · 6 Jul weakened · 17 Jun clean · 30 May weakened

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.18fast2f+0.13fast3f+0.12par4f+0.35slow5f+0.25slow

Timed runs 2026-05-30 to 2026-08-21. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3130 · null 50%

MANILA SCOUSE · 5 meetings≈ 0.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

6 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 1st, 4.4L behind · OR 84 v 79 · race median 79 (today 86)

WE NEVER STOP (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 23.1L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

20 Sep 25 · 6f · Soft — finished 11th vs 25th, 21.55L ahead · OR 100 v 97 · race median 96 (today 86)

WOVEN · 1 meeting≈ 0.9L behind on today's terms · reverses

6 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 9th, 0.3L ahead · OR 84 v 85 · race median 79 (today 86)

LORD ROXBY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

20 Jul 26 · 6f · Firm — finished 1st vs 2nd, 0.75L ahead · OR 82 v 83 · race median 76 (today 86)

VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.4L ahead on today's terms · confirms

20 Jul 26 · 6f · Firm — finished 1st vs 3rd, 2L ahead · OR 82 v 89 · race median 76 (today 86)

THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — CONFIRMS strongly vs 5 rival(s) met (+2.5L adj, 6 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs TOPWARRIOR (read through SOLAR ACLAIM, REALIGN, WILD CLARY, VANTHEMAN) ≈ +6L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs BIG CYRIL (IRE) (read through BADRI, KODI LION, DARK THIRTY, CHIEF MANKATO) ≈ +5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs EYE OF DUBAI (read through REALIGN, STATION X, MISTER SOX, TWILIGHT JET) ≈ -4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs WOODSTOCK (read through GRANT WOOD, MISTER SOX, GRESSINGTON, ROACH POWER) ≈ +1L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

4lb above his last winning mark (86 today vs 82)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayProven over the trip (40 tries, beats market expectation at 2.36)Jockey goes well at this track (2.22x market expectation)Race-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“made all, asserted final 50 yds”

#6 ART LOVER (IRE) MID

DRAW 9 · OR 86 · Cieren Fallon / William Haggas

MARKET 18.5 · the market rates it a 5% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−

92.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

70SPEED FIGURE · =10 OF 20 READ

16.87

FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE

we make it a 6% chance

BOTTOM LINE

5th on the figures, 5pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; habitually slow from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

92.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 92

Speed Figure (FSF)

70 latest (11 Jul 26)

Official mark (OR)

86 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

1 win from 6 tries · below market expectation (0.83)

Days since last run

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.2s) · best on the clock in its race
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 102.08% (holds late)

Course fit today

no strong lean either way

The level · v projected winning figure

best in the last 18 months 92 (48d ago · 6.08f · Cl4) — 10pts short of the projected 102. 34% of winning 3yos in 3yo+ handicaps had shown the level first (66% won without). 1 of the field unraced/unexposed — the level read covers only the raced portion; an unexposed runner wins 10% of such races.

Course scale · class context

drops 6 places on the course scale (CHESTER 5th → THIRSK 11th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Field strength · class context

Sits level with today's median (OR 86 v field 86) · a field 4lb stronger than last time (median 82 then) (CHESTER · 11 Jul 26)

Headgear

Tongue strap

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale

2ndClass 4 · 6f22yrated 927thClass 4 · 6frated 848thClass 4 · 6frated 811stClass 5 · 6frated 872ndClass 5 · 6f22yrated 72

Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time

FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 31 May 25: 44 · 28 Jul 25: 55 · 28 Aug 25: 62 · 12 Sep 25: 55 · 8 Oct 25: 55 · 11 Jul 26: 70

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

William Haggas · 1890 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange

Signature angle: dropping in class

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions · all 1 hold in both windows

In fields of 16+ ✦17/9418.1%1.287/4415.9%1.13

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 2 of 2 reverse in 2026

At this time of year (Q3) ⇆140/58424.0%1.0927/17415.5%0.74

Coming back after 46 to 90 days ⇆42/12533.6%1.327/4117.1%0.92

Too few runners to read reliably

At Thirsk (small sample)1/137.7%0.802/922.2%0.94

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 92 is 10pts short of the projected ~102 needs figure

The rider

Cieren Fallon · last 14 days: 6/47 · at Thirsk: A/E 1.03 (n17, raw 1.16) · with this yard: A/E 1.09 (n543, raw 1.1)

ConsensusFIG 5READ 10VAL 10POW 3MKT 70 of 5 instruments have him top-2

BHA markDROPPED -1lb in this week’s handicap revisions · 87 → 86

Clock readWATCH — last run ran better than the bare result on a pace-adjusted sectional read · STRONG UPGRADE → back today

LEAD READLead chance ~2% (model 2% through the measured curve · last 6 timed runs · 18 read)

Market path19.518.5 (09:06→15:30, backed, 27 snaps)

V course clockclosing speed 102.1% v course avg 100.6% (+1.5) · top speed 40.8mph v 40.5 (+0.3)

Stride-fitcareer stride 7.59m (n 6) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — action matches the extreme

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 86 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=12733

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 18

+0.28 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 40.8 raw

Break · 0-20mph16th of 17

+0.43s

Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · finishing power3rd of 17

66pct

Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 102.1% is vs its own average · +3.3 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.16× chance (9,385 runs)

Stride length9th of 18

7.56 m

Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.354 m on this surface (+0.21 m) · about level with today’s field (+0.05 m)

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

11 Jul 26Chester6f17yGood42nd92708582True39.5-0.10102.1+0.15

8 Oct 25Kempton Park6fStd47th84558781True40.2-0.32104.9+0.31

12 Sep 25Doncaster6fGood48th81558780True40.8+0.0198.2+0.36

28 Aug 25Ffos Las6fGood51st8762——True41.1+0.70104.7+0.37

28 Jul 25Windsor6f12yGd/Frm52nd7255——Slow early41.0+0.27103.5+0.23

31 May 25York6fFirm39th4144——True42.0+1.1399.0+1.19

The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result

DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?

11 Jul 264.946.60DRIFT3rd of 62nd£18.8k£159k12%4.00ran to expectation

8 Oct 254.515.35DRIFT2nd of 97th£43.7k£163k27%8.20well backed, flopped — no pace excuse on the clock

12 Sep 256.027.80DRIFT2nd of 158th£52.1k£361k14%5.00underran the market

28 Aug 253.863.65STABLE3rd of 101st£42.5k£191k22%4.50ran to expectation

28 Jul 256.652.78STABLE1st of 92nd£68.8k£235k29%2.70ran to expectation

31 May 255.859.11DRIFT2nd of 119th£27.8k£288k10%12.00underran the market

Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above

11 Jul kept on · 8 Oct forced wide · 12 Sep hampered, kept on · 28 Aug finished strongly · 28 Jul kept on · 31 May slow away

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.27slow2f+0.16par3f+0.18slow4f+0.23par5f+0.30par6f+0.14fast

Timed runs 2025-05-31 to 2026-07-11. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3130 · null 50%

Read through a common rival

vs STARMADE (IRE) (read through SOVEREIGN SPELL, COYY) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 3 todayMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance

LTO comment

“in touch, ridden inside final 1f, kept on, clear of rest”

#7 WOODSTOCK MID

DRAW 15 · OR 81 · Oisin James Orr / Ruth Carr

MARKET drifting 15 → 17 · the market rates it a 6% chance

Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−

89.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

73SPEED FIGURE · =6 OF 20 READ

15.70

FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE

we make it a 6% chance

BOTTOM LINE

7th on the figures, 8pts off the top, proven on the ground; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.

FormLab Figure

89.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 92

Speed Figure (FSF)

67 latest (15 Aug 26) · best 73 (last 6)

Official mark (OR)

81 · last won off 76

Record at today's distance

4 wins from 33 tries · beats market expectation (1.21)

Days since last run

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races front-runner

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 99.04% (one-paced late)

Course fit today

suits today's track (finishing profile vs what this course demands)

The level · v projected winning figure

best in the last 18 months 89 (13d ago · 6f · Cl4) — 13pts short of the projected 102. 72% of winning horses aged 5+ in 3yo+ handicaps had shown the level first (28% won without). 1 of the field unraced/unexposed — the level read covers only the raced portion; an unexposed runner wins 10% of such races.

Field strength · class context

Stands 5lb below today's median (OR 81 v field 86) · a field 10lb stronger than last time (median 76 then) (RIPON · 15 Aug 26)

Headgear

Visor

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale

1stClass 4 · 6frated 894thClass 3 · 7frated 842ndClass 4 · 7f132yrated 862ndClass 4 · 7frated 816thClass 4 · 7frated 72

Career sheet · last 18 months · 19 rated runs · spacing is real time

FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 27 May 26: 71 · 16 Jun 26: 68 · 15 Jul 26: 66 · 25 Jul 26: 65 · 1 Aug 26: 73 · 15 Aug 26: 67

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Ruth Carr · 1431 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.7 on the exchange

Signature angle: over 5-6f trips, at 8-16 odds, without a recent yard winner, when the money drifts against their runner

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 1 of 2 reverse in 2026

At Thirsk ⇆3/614.9%0.893/2412.5%1.06

At this time of year (Q3) ✦39/36910.6%1.0913/9513.7%1.15

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 2 of 2 reverse in 2026

In fields of 16+ ⇆5/2619.2%1.321/234.3%0.95

Above their last winning mark ⇆53/38113.9%1.3014/1449.7%0.91

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 92 is 10pts short of the projected ~102 needs figure

The rider

Oisin James Orr · last 14 days: 7/32 · at Thirsk: A/E 0.97 (n126, raw 0.95) · with this yard: A/E 1.09 (n1, raw 7.38)

ConsensusFIG 7READ 11VAL 11POW 10MKT 60 of 5 instruments have him top-2

BHA markRAISED +5lb in this week’s handicap revisions · 76 → 81

LEAD READLead chance ~3% (model 3% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 18 read)

Market path1517 (09:06→15:30, drifting, 27 snaps)

V course clockclosing speed 99.0% v course avg 100.6% (−1.6) · top speed 40.0mph v 40.5 (−0.5)

Stride-fitcareer stride 7.54m (n 31) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — action matches the extreme

Receiptslast read Ripon 15 Aug: figure ≈ · class ✓ · connections ✓ · pace ✗ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 86 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=12733

Speed · vs its fields15th of 18

-0.15 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.0 raw

Break · 0-20mph1st of 17

+0.06s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · finishing power9th of 17

55pct

Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 99.0% is vs its own average · +0.3 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.02× chance (13,862 runs)

Stride length7th of 18

7.60 m

Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.354 m on this surface (+0.25 m) · about level with today’s field (+0.09 m)

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

15 Aug 26Ripon6fGood41st89677676True41.0-0.0799.4—

1 Aug 26Thirsk7fGood34th84737784Fast early39.9-0.16101.2+0.20

25 Jul 26Chester7f127yGood42nd86657573.5True39.8-0.3498.2+0.00

15 Jul 26Catterick Bridge7fGd/Frm42nd81667482True41.8-0.0599.7+0.05

16 Jun 26Thirsk7fGood46th72687577Fast early39.0-0.31100.8+0.10

27 May 26Beverley7f96yGd/Frm54th79717569True39.7+0.0095.0-0.03

The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result

DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?

15 Aug 2610.577.38STABLE2nd of 201st£28.6k£247k12%1.35ran to expectation

1 Aug 2618.7814.00STABLE4th of 154th£11.6k£271k4%180.00ran to expectation

25 Jul 266.315.40STABLE3rd of 82nd£30.4k£186k16%1.90beaten from a winning position

15 Jul 265.595.40STABLE3rd of 42nd£45.5k£267k17%3.25ran to expectation

16 Jun 266.684.30STABLE1st of 106th£44.6k£179k25%2.40underran the market

27 May 264.704.36STABLE1st of 114th£45.6k£161k28%3.00underran the market

Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above

15 Aug finished strongly · 1 Aug hung under pressure, no extra · 25 Jul no extra · 15 Jul clean · 16 Jun raced too keenly, weakened · 27 May outpaced

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.45slow2f+0.46par3f+0.45par4f+0.31fast5fledpar6fledpar

Timed runs 2026-05-27 to 2026-08-15. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3130 · null 50%

KATS BOB · 3 meetings≈ 1.4L ahead on today's terms · confirms

15 Aug 26 · 6f · Good — finished 1st vs 14th, 3.85L ahead · OR 76 v 77 · race median 76 (today 86)

NOVELLO LAD · 1 meeting · n/a

16 Aug 25 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 11th, 1.15L ahead · OR 78 v 77 · race median 75 (today 86) · stale — 12m ago, not in the read

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — confirms vs 1 rival(s) met (+1.4L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs EYE OF DUBAI (read through BEAUJOLAIS NOUVEAU, MISTER SOX, ROACH POWER, SERGEANT WILKO) ≈ -5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs WE NEVER STOP (IRE) (read through ROCK OPERA, MISTER SOX, GLENFINNAN, HAVANA RUM) ≈ +4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs TOPWARRIOR (read through GRANT WOOD, MYTHICAL COMPOSER, EDUCATING RITA, FUJI MOUNTAIN) ≈ +3L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs WOVEN (read through GRANT WOOD, IRISH NECTAR, MISTER SOX, ROACH POWER) ≈ -2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

5lb above his last winning mark (81 today vs 76)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayProven over the trip (33 tries, beats market expectation at 1.21)Historically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance

LTO comment

“in touch, led over 1f out, ridden out”

#8 YES I'M MALI MID

DRAW 8 · OR 82 · Daniel Tudhope / David O'Meara

MARKET backed 14.5 → 11.5 · the market rates it a 9% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−

87 FORMLAB FIGURE

73SPEED FIGURE · =6 OF 20 READ

19.29

FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE

we make it a 5% chance

BOTTOM LINE

8th on the figures, 10pts off the top, prominent in the betting; rated well above the mark it last won from.

FormLab Figure

87 · ranked #8 here · career best 92

Speed Figure (FSF)

65 latest (16 Aug 26) · best 73 (last 6)

Official mark (OR)

82 · last won off 75

Record at today's distance

4 wins from 28 tries · beats market expectation (1.27)

Days since last run

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 99.63% (one-paced late)

Course fit today

suits today's track (finishing profile vs what this course demands)

The level · v projected winning figure

best in the last 18 months 92 (55d ago · 6f · Cl4) — 10pts short of the projected 102. 58% of winning 4yos in 3yo+ handicaps had shown the level first (42% won without). 1 of the field unraced/unexposed — the level read covers only the raced portion; an unexposed runner wins 10% of such races.

Course scale · class context

steps up 7 places on the course scale (PONTEFRACT 18th → THIRSK 11th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Field strength · class context

Sits 4lb below today's median (OR 82 v field 86) · a field 4lb stronger than last time (median 82 then) (PONTEFRACT · 16 Aug 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale

5thClass 3 · 6frated 857thClass 2 · 6frated 842ndClass 4 · 6frated 922ndClass 4 · 6frated 9219thClass 4 · 6frated 47

Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time

FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 31 May 26: 67 · 13 Jun 26: 56 · 4 Jul 26: 63 · 18 Jul 26: 73 · 25 Jul 26: 71 · 16 Aug 26: 65

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

David O'Meara · 2341 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions · all 1 hold in both windows

At Thirsk20/7526.7%1.284/2913.8%1.05

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 1 of 3 reverse in 2026

In fields of 16+4/1892.1%0.671/741.4%0.79

In Class 1-3 company ✦44/5817.6%0.889/1914.7%0.70

At this time of year (Q3) ⇆94/68313.8%1.0320/19710.2%0.88

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 92 is 10pts short of the projected ~102 needs figure

The rider

Daniel Tudhope · last 14 days: 5/33 · at Thirsk: A/E 1.09 (n105, raw 1.14) · with this yard: A/E 0.96 (n908, raw 0.96)

ConsensusFIG 8READ 6VAL 6POW 12MKT 30 of 5 instruments have him top-2

BHA markDROPPED -1lb in this week’s handicap revisions · 82 → 81

LEAD READLead chance ~1% (model 1% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 18 read)

Market path14.511.5 (09:06→15:30, backed, 27 snaps)

V course clockclosing speed 99.6% v course avg 100.6% (−1.0) · top speed 41.8mph v 40.5 (+1.3)

Stride-fitcareer stride 7.46m (n 26) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — FITS the track

Course form1 career win at this track

Receiptslast read Pontefract 16 Aug: figure ≈ · class ✗ · h2h ✓ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 86 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=12733

Speed · vs its fields11th of 18

+0.05 mph

About the level of its fields · 41.8 raw

Break · 0-20mph9th of 17

+0.16s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · finishing power11th of 17

53pct

Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 99.6% is vs its own average · +0.9 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.13× chance (9,259 runs)

Stride length6th of 18

7.60 m

Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.354 m on this surface (+0.25 m) · about level with today’s field (+0.09 m)

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

16 Aug 26Pontefract6fGd/Frm35th85658282True39.7+0.1498.8+0.06

25 Jul 26York6fGd/Frm27th84718288True41.6+0.3698.4+0.44

18 Jul 26Newmarket6fGd/Frm42nd92738173Slow early42.1+0.22102.6-0.02

4 Jul 26Newmarket6fGd/Frm42nd92638077True43.1+0.28102.5+0.02

13 Jun 26York6fGood419th47568181True41.6-0.6495.1+0.16

31 May 26Thirsk6fGood25th86678290.5True42.7-0.08100.5+0.31

The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result

DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?

16 Aug 267.148.79DRIFT4th of 95th£21.3k£225k9%18.50ran to expectation

25 Jul 2636.8430.61STABLE9th of 217th£7.8k£366k2%36.00ran to expectation

18 Jul 263.253.35STABLE1st of 82nd£86.6k£253k34%3.00ran to expectation

4 Jul 266.925.68STABLE2nd of 102nd£34.8k£243k14%5.80ran to expectation

13 Jun 269.718.86STABLE2nd of 2119th£28.9k£261k11%10.00underran the market

31 May 267.287.20STABLE1st of 145th£35.2k£186k19%15.00underran the market

Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above

16 Aug had to switch, late headway · 25 Jul never on terms · 18 Jul late headway, no extra · 4 Jul finished strongly · 13 Jun never on terms · 31 May kept on

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.32par2f+0.48slow3f+0.43par4f+0.46par5f+0.31par6f+0.45slow

Timed runs 2026-05-31 to 2026-08-16. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3130 · null 50%

LORD ROXBY (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 8.4L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 19th vs 4th, 10.45L behind · OR 81 v 84 · race median 81 (today 86)

MANILA SCOUSE · 3 meetings≈ 8.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 19th vs 6th, 9L behind · OR 81 v 80 · race median 81 (today 86)

WOVEN · 2 meetings≈ 12.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 19th vs 2nd, 12.2L behind · OR 81 v 84 · race median 81 (today 86)

KATS BOB · 2 meetings≈ 0.6L behind on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 19th vs 20th, 0.2L ahead · OR 81 v 77 · race median 81 (today 86)

VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 1.2L behind on today's terms · reverses

16 Aug 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 4th, 0.2L behind · OR 82 v 89 · race median 82 (today 86)

TOPWARRIOR · 1 meeting · n/a

28 Jun 25 · 6f · Good — finished 6th vs 13th, 14.05L ahead · OR 82 v 86 · race median 81.5 (today 86) · stale — 14m ago, not in the read

NOVELLO LAD · 1 meeting≈ 5.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

25 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 17th, 5.35L ahead · OR 82 v 89 · race median 88 (today 86)

WE NEVER STOP (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 14.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

25 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 21st, 14.85L ahead · OR 82 v 87 · race median 88 (today 86)

Read through a common rival

vs COUNTY CARLOW (IRE) (read through PAPA COCKTAIL, ZUBARU, GOLDEN LONG) ≈ +5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs DURHAM CASTLE (read through RAJAKING, DILIGENTLY, GRANT WOOD, DAKOTA GOLD) ≈ -2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs WOODSTOCK (read through GRANT WOOD, MISTER SOX, GLORY HYDE, IRISH NECTAR) ≈ -2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs EYE OF DUBAI (read through BALDOMERO, STRIKE RED, INTERVENTION, MISTER SOX) ≈ -1L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

7lb above his last winning mark (82 today vs 75)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayProven over the trip (28 tries, beats market expectation at 1.27)Stable in form this week — 3 wins from 20 runsRace-fit — ran 12 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 3 here)

LTO comment

“mid-field, pushed along home turn, stayed on”

#9 STARMADE (IRE) MID

DRAW 17 · OR 87 · P. J. McDonald / Ed Dunlop

MARKET backed 17 → 15 · the market rates it a 7% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−

86 FORMLAB FIGURE

67SPEED FIGURE · =16 OF 20 READ

18.59

FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE

we make it a 5% chance

BOTTOM LINE

9th on the figures, 11pts off the top, meets much weaker company than last time on the ratings; rated well above the mark it last won from.

FormLab Figure

86 · ranked #9 here · career best 93

Speed Figure (FSF)

67 latest (9 Jul 26)

Official mark (OR)

87 · last won off 80

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 7 tries · beats market expectation (1.51)

Days since last run

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · best on the clock in its race
Usually races midfield-closer · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 99.63% (one-paced late)

Course fit today

suits today's track (finishing profile vs what this course demands)

The level · v projected winning figure

best in the last 18 months 93 (119d ago · 6f · Cl4) — 9pts short of the projected 102. 34% of winning 3yos in 3yo+ handicaps had shown the level first (66% won without). 1 of the field unraced/unexposed — the level read covers only the raced portion; an unexposed runner wins 10% of such races.

Course scale · class context

drops 7 places on the course scale (NEWMARKET 4th → THIRSK 11th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Field strength · class context

Sits 1lb above today's median (OR 87 v field 86) · a field 5lb weaker than last time (median 91 then) (NEWMARKET · 9 Jul 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale

10thClass 2 · 6frated 785thClass 2 · 5frated 871stClass 4 · 6frated 933rdClass 4 · 5f154yrated 781stClass 5 · 5frated 79

Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time

FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 30 Sep 25: 59 · 14 Oct 25: 57 · 17 Apr 26: 53 · 1 May 26: 59 · 19 Jun 26: 67 · 9 Jul 26: 67

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Ed Dunlop · 1075 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.1 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions · all 2 hold in both windows

Over 5-6f trips ✦15/12212.3%1.027/4017.5%1.12

On turf ✦46/42011.0%1.0519/13314.3%1.11

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 1 of 1 reverse in 2026

In Class 1-3 company ⇆9/1078.4%1.032/414.9%0.93

Too few runners to read reliably

In fields of 16+ ⇆ (small sample)2/258.0%1.070/140.0%0.87

Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)6/5510.9%1.123/1717.6%1.02

At Thirsk ⇆ (small sample)1/147.1%0.941/520.0%1.00

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 93 is 9pts short of the projected ~102 needs figure

The rider

P. J. McDonald · last 14 days: 2/27 · at Thirsk: A/E 1.07 (n47, raw 1.16) · with this yard: A/E 1.12 (n29, raw 1.46)

ConsensusFIG 9READ 4VAL 4POW 4MKT 50 of 5 instruments have him top-2

LEAD READLead chance ~7% (model 7% through the measured curve · last 6 timed runs · 18 read)

Market path1715 (09:06→15:30, backed, 27 snaps)

V course clockclosing speed 99.6% v course avg 100.6% (−1.0) · top speed 40.5mph v 40.5 (+0.0)

Stride-fitcareer stride 7.52m (n 6) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — action matches the extreme

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 86 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=12733

Speed · vs its fields10th of 18

+0.05 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph14th of 17

+0.34s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · finishing power4th of 17

65pct

Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 99.6% is vs its own average · +0.9 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.13× chance (9,259 runs)

Stride length11th of 18

7.46 m

Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.354 m on this surface (+0.11 m) · about level with today’s field (−0.05 m)

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

19 Jun 26Ascot5fGd/Frm25th87678895True42.1-0.48100.5+0.33

1 May 26Newcastle6fSlow41st93598075.5Fast early40.2+0.48105.0—

17 Apr 26Bath5f160yGood43rd78538075True40.4+0.5496.9+0.79

14 Oct 25Newcastle5fStd51st7957——Slow early41.0-0.13103.5+0.05

30 Sep 25Ayr6fGd/Sft52nd7559——Fast early40.7-0.1093.6+0.06

18 Sep 25Pontefract6fSoft53rd7157——True38.7+0.0098.3+0.49

The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result

DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?

19 Jun 2616.5312.81STABLE4th of 275th£71.9k£1031k7%9.20ran to expectation

1 May 263.403.10STABLE1st of 81st£87.8k£234k37%3.65ran to expectation

17 Apr 268.415.20STEAM1st of 133rd£94.6k£248k38%3.25ran to expectation

14 Oct 252.992.62STABLE2nd of 81st£91.5k£212k43%2.68ran to expectation

30 Sep 254.754.30STABLE2nd of 82nd£35.9k£211k17%4.80ran to expectation

18 Sep 2512.4414.85DRIFT4th of 93rd£9.3k£261k4%4.00ran to expectation

Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above

19 Jun kept on · 1 May finished strongly, late headway · 17 Apr slow away · 14 Oct raced too keenly, late headway · 30 Sep finished strongly · 18 Sep finished strongly

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.65par2f+0.72par3f+0.90slow4f+0.86slow5f+0.79slow

Timed runs 2025-09-18 to 2026-06-19. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3130 · null 50%

Read through a common rival

vs ART LOVER (IRE) (read through SOVEREIGN SPELL, COYY) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) (read through GENTLE GEORGE, RED SPELLS DANGER) ≈ -3.5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

7lb above his last winning mark (87 today vs 80)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayDrops in class todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“off pace, pushed along soon after halfway, weakened final 1f”

#10 WOVEN HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 7 · OR 84 · Connor Beasley / Michael Dods

MARKET drifting 20 → 30 · the market rates it a 3% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 3−

86 FORMLAB FIGURE

73SPEED FIGURE · =6 OF 20 READ

42.63

FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE

we make it a 2% chance

BOTTOM LINE

9th on the figures, 11pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; habitually slow from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

86 · ranked #9 here · career best 97

Speed Figure (FSF)

61 latest (6 Jul 26) · best 73 (last 6)

Official mark (OR)

84 · last won off 84

Record at today's distance

3 wins from 27 tries · beats market expectation (1.43)

Days since last run

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s)
Usually races held-up closer

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 97.22% (one-paced late)

Course fit today

reads against today's track (finishing profile vs what this course demands; run style vs how races develop here)

The level · v projected winning figure

best in the last 18 months 97 (323d ago · 6f · Cl4) — 5pts short of the projected 102. 72% of winning horses aged 5+ in 3yo+ handicaps had shown the level first (28% won without). 1 of the field unraced/unexposed — the level read covers only the raced portion; an unexposed runner wins 10% of such races.

Field strength · class context

Sits 2lb below today's median (OR 84 v field 86) · a field 7lb stronger than last time (median 79 then) (AYR · 6 Jul 26)

Headgear

Cheekpieces

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale

9thClass 4 · 6frated 842ndClass 4 · 6frated 957thClass 2 · 6frated 794thClass 3 · 6frated 9212thClass 2 · 6frated 68

Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time

FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 24 Oct 25: 61 · 8 Nov 25: 53 · 29 Mar 26: 63 · 13 May 26: 70 · 13 Jun 26: 73 · 6 Jul 26: 61

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Michael Dods · 1444 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.1 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 2 of 4 reverse in 2026

In Class 1-3 company ⇆11/1726.4%0.973/3010.0%1.08

In fields of 16+5/806.2%1.091/244.2%1.01

At this time of year (Q3) ✦47/45310.4%1.0316/11214.3%1.09

Money drifting against this runner today (2026 reverses the earlier pattern) ⇆14/3354.2%0.768/928.7%1.13

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 1 of 3 reverse in 2026

At Thirsk ⇆13/11511.3%1.154/567.1%0.84

Coming back after 46 to 90 days4/586.9%0.972/258.0%0.91

Over 5-6f trips ✦60/6329.5%0.9517/1908.9%0.89

Too few runners to read reliably

Back at their last winning mark (small sample)3/3010.0%1.012/1315.4%1.06

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 97 is 5pts short of the projected ~102 needs figure

The rider

Connor Beasley · last 14 days: 5/28 · at Thirsk: A/E 0.83 (n206, raw 0.76) · with this yard: A/E 0.85 (n798, raw 0.83)

ConsensusFIG 9READ 17VAL 17POW 1MKT 111 of 5 instruments have him top-2

PACE FITFIT — hold-up type with the projected pace collapse in his favour · fit runners beat their published rank by +0.4 places (213-race gate)

LEAD READLead chance ~1% (model 1% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 18 read)

Market path2030 (09:06→15:30, drifting, 27 snaps)

V course clockclosing speed 97.2% v course avg 100.6% (−3.4) · top speed 40.8mph v 40.5 (+0.3)

Stride-fitcareer stride 7.18m (n 21) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — SHORT-striding for a galloping track

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 86 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=12733

Speed · vs its fields4th of 18

+0.18 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 40.8 raw

Break · 0-20mph17th of 17

+0.47s

Slow away in 5 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · finishing power1st of 17

67pct

Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 97.2% is vs its own average · −1.5 vs today’s field — that band wins 0.95× chance (9,444 runs)

Stride length16th of 18

7.32 m

Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.354 m on this surface (−0.03 m) · −0.19 m vs today’s field — that band wins 1.02× chance at sharp tracks like this (3,854 runs)

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

6 Jul 26Ayr6fGd/Frm49th84618579True43.2+0.3996.0+0.61

13 Jun 26York6fGood42nd95738481True42.3+0.0798.6+0.28

13 May 26York6fGd/Sft27th79708693True41.8-0.0196.4+0.67

29 Mar 26Doncaster6fGd/Sft34th92638686True39.4+0.15101.2+0.36

8 Nov 25Doncaster6fHeavy212th68538791True38.2+0.1796.1+0.42

24 Oct 25Newbury6fHeavy35th80618784True39.6+0.3195.0+0.46

The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result

DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?

6 Jul 2613.4511.55STABLE5th of 179th£16.3k£208k8%11.00underran the market

13 Jun 2615.3416.26STABLE6th of 212nd£15.0k£261k6%14.50outran the market

13 May 2662.68111.56DRIFT20th of 227th£5.4k£493k1%55.00outran the market

29 Mar 2664.7081.20STABLE18th of 194th£3.8k£338k1%21.00outran the market

8 Nov 2561.9576.54STABLE20th of 2212th£3.2k£285k1%25.00outran the market

24 Oct 2512.1713.67DRIFT3rd of 185th£15.4k£212k7%13.00ran to expectation

Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above

6 Jul clean · 13 Jun finished strongly, late headway · 13 May late headway · 29 Mar never nearer (better than result) · 8 Nov kept on · 24 Oct had to switch, kept on

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.70par2f+0.57fast3f+0.48par4f+0.31par5f+0.47very slow6f+0.75very slow

Timed runs 2025-10-24 to 2026-07-06.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3130 · null 50%

MANILA SCOUSE · 6 meetings≈ 4.4L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

6 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 9th vs 1st, 4.7L behind · OR 85 v 79 · race median 79 (today 86)

EYE OF DUBAI · 4 meetings≈ 10.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

8 Nov 25 · 6f · Heavy — finished 12th vs 2nd, 8.55L behind · OR 87 v 90 · race median 91 (today 86)

YES I'M MALI · 2 meetings≈ 12.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 2nd vs 19th, 12.2L ahead · OR 84 v 81 · race median 81 (today 86)

KATS BOB · 2 meetings≈ 12.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 2nd vs 20th, 12.4L ahead · OR 84 v 77 · race median 81 (today 86)

TOPWARRIOR · 2 meetings≈ 11.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

24 Oct 25 · 6f · Heavy — finished 5th vs 1st, 7L behind · OR 87 v 85 · race median 84 (today 86)

LORD ROXBY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 4.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 2nd vs 4th, 1.75L ahead · OR 84 v 84 · race median 81 (today 86)

DURHAM CASTLE · 1 meeting · n/a

31 May 25 · 6f · Good — finished 11th vs 7th, 3L behind · OR 86 v 89 · race median 87.5 (today 86) · stale — 15m ago, not in the read

WE NEVER STOP (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 10.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

13 May 26 · 6f · Gd/Sft — finished 7th vs 19th, 11.35L ahead · OR 86 v 91 · race median 93 (today 86)

JORDAN ELECTRICS · 1 meeting≈ 0.9L ahead on today's terms · confirms

6 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 9th vs 8th, 0.3L behind · OR 85 v 84 · race median 79 (today 86)

Read through a common rival

vs WOODSTOCK (read through GRANT WOOD, IRISH NECTAR, MISTER SOX, ROACH POWER) ≈ +2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs NOVELLO LAD (read through BALDOMERO, LORD BERTIE, TRILBY, GRANT WOOD) ≈ +2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs BIG CYRIL (IRE) (read through DARK THIRTY, KODI LION, BADRI) ≈ -2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) (read through BERGERAC, BALDOMERO, ROUSING ENCORE, THE CALTONIAN) ≈ -1L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 3 todayProven over the trip (27 tries, beats market expectation at 1.43)Stable in form this week — 3 wins from 18 runsLost roughly 2.7 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“held up, pushed along before halfway, closed up only late”

#11 KATS BOB PROMINENT

DRAW 5 · OR 76 · Jake Dickson / Ruth Carr

MARKET drifting 40 → 48 · the market rates it a 2% chance

Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−

84.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

74SPEED FIGURE · =4 OF 20 READ

52.72

FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE

we make it a 2% chance

BOTTOM LINE

11th on the figures, 12.7pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; behind the rivals it has met on collateral form.

FormLab Figure

84.3 · ranked #11 here · career best 88

Speed Figure (FSF)

62 latest (15 Aug 26) · best 74 (last 6)

Official mark (OR)

76 · last won off 80

Record at today's distance

7 wins from 45 tries · beats market expectation (1.47)

Days since last run

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent and weakens

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 97.81% (one-paced late)

Course fit today

suits today's track (run style vs how races develop here)

The level · v projected winning figure

best in the last 18 months 88 (440d ago · 6f · Cl4) — 14pts short of the projected 102. 72% of winning horses aged 5+ in 3yo+ handicaps had shown the level first (28% won without). 1 of the field unraced/unexposed — the level read covers only the raced portion; an unexposed runner wins 10% of such races.

Field strength · class context

Stands 10lb below today's median (OR 76 v field 86) · a field 10lb stronger than last time (median 76 then) (RIPON · 15 Aug 26)

Headgear

Visor

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale

14thClass 4 · 6frated 802ndClass 4 · 6frated 862ndClass 4 · 6frated 877thClass 4 · 6frated 6920thClass 4 · 6frated 43

Career sheet · last 18 months · 24 rated runs · spacing is real time

FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 5 Jun 26: 63 · 13 Jun 26: 56 · 26 Jun 26: 57 · 11 Jul 26: 74 · 29 Jul 26: 68 · 15 Aug 26: 62

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Ruth Carr · 1431 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.7 on the exchange

Signature angle: over 5-6f trips, at 8-16 odds, without a recent yard winner, when the money drifts against their runner

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 1 of 2 reverse in 2026

At Thirsk ⇆3/614.9%0.893/2412.5%1.06

At this time of year (Q3) ✦39/36910.6%1.0913/9513.7%1.15

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 2 of 2 reverse in 2026

In fields of 16+ ⇆5/2619.2%1.321/234.3%0.95

Below their last winning mark ⇆17/1839.3%1.0210/1119.0%0.87

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 88 is 14pts short of the projected ~102 needs figure

The rider

Jake Dickson · last 14 days: 2/17 · at Thirsk: A/E 1.11 (n12, raw 1.78) · with this yard: A/E 0.99 (n1, raw 0)

ConsensusFIG 11READ 12VAL 12POW 15MKT 130 of 5 instruments have him top-2

BHA markDROPPED -1lb in this week’s handicap revisions · 77 → 76

PACE FITCLASH — forward type into a projected pace collapse · clash runners have run 1.3 places worse than ranked (213-race gate)

LEAD READLead chance ~16% (model 20% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 18 read)

Market path4048 (09:06→15:30, drifting, 27 snaps)

V course clockclosing speed 97.8% v course avg 100.6% (−2.8) · top speed 41.6mph v 40.5 (+1.1)

Stride-fitcareer stride 7.54m (n 36) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — action matches the extreme

Course form1 career win at this track

Receiptslast read Ripon 15 Aug: figure ✗ · energy ≈ · connections ✗ · pace ≈ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 86 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=12733

Speed · vs its fields18th of 18

-0.23 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 41.6 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 17

+0.08s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · finishing power14th of 17

50pct

Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 97.8% is vs its own average · −1.0 vs today’s field — that band wins 0.95× chance (9,444 runs)

Stride length5th of 18

7.64 m

Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.354 m on this surface (+0.29 m) · +0.13 m vs today’s field — that band wins 1.00× chance at sharp tracks like this (3,850 runs) — a stride edge has paid nothing at sharp tracks

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

15 Aug 26Ripon6fGood414th80627776True41.2+0.0498.1—

29 Jul 26Redcar5f217yGd/Frm42nd86687777True42.4-0.1098.1+0.00

11 Jul 26York6fGd/Frm42nd87747477True41.4-0.1697.4+0.00

26 Jun 26Doncaster6fGd/Frm47th69577678.5True41.6-0.4898.5+0.00

13 Jun 26York6fGood420th43567781True41.5-0.7495.2+0.33

5 Jun 26Doncaster6fGd/Frm44th83637879True41.6+0.0699.5—

The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result

DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?

15 Aug 2616.2016.00STABLE6th of 2014th£14.1k£247k6%14.00underran the market

29 Jul 264.974.20STABLE2nd of 72nd£28.6k£143k20%3.40ran to expectation

11 Jul 2627.8055.00DRIFT12th of 192nd£6.8k£239k3%2.02outran the market

26 Jun 2616.4218.10DRIFT7th of 87th£5.1k£125k4%14.50ran to expectation

13 Jun 2621.2934.00DRIFT13th of 2120th£11.5k£261k4%38.00underran the market

5 Jun 2622.2521.66STABLE9th of 134th£6.0k£147k4%20.00outran the market

Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above

15 Aug hung under pressure, weakened, outpaced · 29 Jul finished strongly · 11 Jul kept on ✓ in-play money believed him · 26 Jun weakened · 13 Jun weakened · 5 Jun no extra

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.27par2f+0.20par3f+0.24par4f+0.41par5f+0.42slow6f+0.63slow

Timed runs 2026-06-05 to 2026-08-15. · 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3130 · null 50%

MANILA SCOUSE · 3 meetings≈ 7.6L behind on today's terms · reverses

13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 20th vs 6th, 9.2L behind · OR 77 v 80 · race median 81 (today 86)

WOODSTOCK · 3 meetings≈ 1.4L behind on today's terms · reverses

15 Aug 26 · 6f · Good — finished 14th vs 1st, 3.85L behind · OR 77 v 76 · race median 76 (today 86)

LORD ROXBY (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 7.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 20th vs 4th, 10.65L behind · OR 77 v 84 · race median 81 (today 86)

YES I'M MALI · 2 meetings≈ 0.6L ahead on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 20th vs 19th, 0.2L behind · OR 77 v 81 · race median 81 (today 86)

WOVEN · 2 meetings≈ 12.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 20th vs 2nd, 12.4L behind · OR 77 v 84 · race median 81 (today 86)

EYE OF DUBAI · 2 meetings · n/a

4 Aug 25 · 6f · Good — finished 5th vs 2nd, 2.5L behind · OR 82 v 85 · race median 85 (today 86) · stale — 13m ago, not in the read

NOVELLO LAD · 2 meetings≈ 0.3L behind on today's terms · reverses

5 Jun 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 1st, 2.3L behind · OR 78 v 85 · race median 79 (today 86)

Read through a common rival

vs WE NEVER STOP (IRE) (read through TRILBY, ROUSING ENCORE, HAVANA RUM, ROCK OPERA) ≈ +6L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs DURHAM CASTLE (read through ALPHA MAGIC, TRILBY, GRANT WOOD, DAKOTA GOLD) ≈ -4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs TOPWARRIOR (read through TRILBY, GRANT WOOD, WILD CLARY, HAVANA RUM) ≈ +4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) (read through THE GOOD BISCUIT, TRILBY, MISTER SOX, BERGERAC) ≈ -2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

4lb below his last winning mark (76 today vs 80)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayProven over the trip (45 tries, beats market expectation at 1.47)Jockey goes well at this track (1.78x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 6 here)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“pressed leader, ridden 2f out, beaten when wandered entering final 1f”

#12 COUNTY CARLOW (IRE) HELD-UP

DRAW 18 · OR 83 · Andrew Mullen / Ben Haslam

MARKET drifting 80 → 120 · the market rates it a 1% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 6+ / 1−

81.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

68SPEED FIGURE · #15 OF 20 READ

25.47

FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE

we make it a 4% chance

MED DATA · 5 runs

BOTTOM LINE

12th on the figures, 15.7pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.

FormLab Figure

81.3 · ranked #12 here · career best 86

Speed Figure (FSF)

68 latest (15 Aug 26)

Official mark (OR)

83 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

1 win from 4 tries · below market expectation (0.8)

Days since last run

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.7s)

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 104.55% (strong late)

Course fit today

no fit read yet (needs 3+ timed runs)

The level · v projected winning figure

best in the last 18 months 86 (84d ago · 7f) — 16pts short of the projected 102. 34% of winning 3yos in 3yo+ handicaps had shown the level first (66% won without). 1 of the field unraced/unexposed — the level read covers only the raced portion; an unexposed runner wins 10% of such races.

Field strength · class context

Sits 3lb below today's median (OR 83 v field 86) · a field 6lb stronger than last time (median 79.5 then) (DONCASTER · 15 Aug 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale

7thClass 4 · 5f154yrated 752ndClass · 7frated 861stClass · 6f66yrated 834thClass · 1mrated 722ndClass · 7frated 76

Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time

FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 1 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 15 Aug 26: 68

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Ben Haslam · 475 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange

Signature angle: at this time of year (Q1), on the all-weather, with a new jockey booked, off a judgement-rated last figure, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, after a slow start last time, without a recent yard winner, in fields of 8-11, with a runner returning from 60+ days off, changing jockey from the last run

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 4 of 6 reverse in 2026

At Thirsk ⇆1/147.1%0.951/137.7%1.05

Coming back after 8 to 14 days ⇆6/4912.2%0.869/2733.3%1.28

Changing jockey from the last run ✦20/15313.1%1.1312/7416.2%1.32

Over 5-6f trips ✦15/13511.1%1.0417/9318.3%1.29

At this time of year (Q3) ⇆8/859.4%0.993/368.3%1.04

Money drifting against this runner today (2026 reverses the earlier pattern) ⇆3/973.1%0.904/636.3%1.07

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · all 1 hold in both windows

In fields of 16+0/100.0%0.900/110.0%0.90

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 86 is 16pts short of the projected ~102 needs figure

The rider

Andrew Mullen · last 14 days: 3/23 · at Thirsk: A/E 0.90 (n68, raw 0.68) · with this yard: A/E 1.27 (n184, raw 1.41)

ConsensusFIG 12READ 13VAL 13MKT 180 of 4 instruments have him top-2

BHA markDROPPED -2lb in this week’s handicap revisions · 85 → 83

PACE FITFIT — hold-up type with the projected pace collapse in his favour · fit runners beat their published rank by +0.4 places (213-race gate)

Market path80120 (09:06→15:30, drifting, 27 snaps)

V course clockclosing speed 104.5% v course avg 100.6% (+3.9) · top speed 41.3mph v 40.5 (+0.8)

Receiptslast read Doncaster 15 Aug: figure ✗ · editorial ✗ · connections ✗ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)

Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 86 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=12733

Speed · vs its fields13th of 18

-0.01 mph

About the level of its fields · 41.3 raw · only 1 run

Break · 0-20mph

—

No 0-20mph split recorded

Finish · closing speed

104.5%

Sustains — still going at the line · no Finishing Power read for this horse

Stride length18th of 18

7.21 m

Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.354 m on this surface (−0.14 m) · −0.30 m vs today’s field — that band wins 1.02× chance at sharp tracks like this (3,854 runs)

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

15 Aug 26Doncaster5f143yGd/Frm47th75688579.5True41.3-0.01104.5—

The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result

DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?

15 Aug 2624.8634.51DRIFT8th of 107th£10.8k£187k6%38.00ran to expectation

Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above

15 Aug kept on

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.91very slow2f+1.19very slow3f+1.24par4f+1.34slow5f+1.10fast6f+0.90fast

Timed runs 2026-08-15 to 2026-08-15. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3130 · null 50%

Read through a common rival

vs YES I'M MALI (read through PAPA COCKTAIL, ZUBARU, GOLDEN LONG) ≈ -5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs KATS BOB (read through ZUBARU, PAPA COCKTAIL) ≈ +1.0L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs JORDAN ELECTRICS (read through JUSTMYLUCK, SQUEALER) ≈ -0.5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

Data gaps · sectional read off only 1 timed run

Only 4 runs at this distanceHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“rear, ridden when hung left over 1f out, plugged on”

#13 TOPWARRIOR MID

DRAW 11 · OR 90 · Callum Rodriguez / Ralph Beckett

MARKET 48 · the market rates it a 2% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−

79.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

70SPEED FIGURE · =10 OF 20 READ

40.81

FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE

we make it a 2% chance

BOTTOM LINE

13th on the figures, 18pts off the top, meets much weaker company than last time on the ratings; rated well above the mark it last won from.

FormLab Figure

79.0 · ranked #13 here · career best 105

Speed Figure (FSF)

61 latest (27 Jun 26) · best 70 (last 6)

Official mark (OR)

90 · last won off 85

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 11 tries · beats market expectation (1.26)

Days since last run

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.6s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield and fades

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 92.75% (one-paced late)

Course fit today

reads against today's track (finishing profile vs what this course demands)

The level · v projected winning figure

has run to 105 (308d ago · 6f · Cl3) — 3pts ABOVE the projected 102. 51% of winning 4yos in 3yo+ handicaps had shown it inside 12 months. 1 of the field unraced/unexposed — the level read covers only the raced portion; an unexposed runner wins 10% of such races.

Field strength · class context

Sits 4lb above today's median (OR 90 v field 86) · a field 12lb weaker than last time (median 97.5 then) (NEWCASTLE · 27 Jun 26)

Headgear

Blinkers and tongue strap

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale

12thClass 2 · 6frated 7914thClass 2 · 6frated 491stClass 3 · 6frated 10512thClass 3 · 6frated 462ndClass 4 · 6frated 92

Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time

FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 28 Jun 25: 49 · 2 Sep 25: 66 · 27 Sep 25: 54 · 24 Oct 25: 70 · 6 Jun 26: 57 · 27 Jun 26: 61

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Ralph Beckett · 1657 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange

Signature angle: when the money drifts against their runner

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 2 of 2 reverse in 2026

Coming back after 46 to 90 days ⇆21/13315.8%0.979/3823.7%1.17

Over 5-6f trips ⇆36/21416.8%0.9019/8821.6%1.10

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · all 1 hold in both windows

In Class 1-3 company ✦87/60214.5%0.9529/24112.0%0.83

Too few runners to read reliably

At Thirsk (small sample)1/425.0%1.002/825.0%0.99

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 105 at/around today's trip, clears the projected ~102 needs figure

The rider

Callum Rodriguez · last 14 days: 4/26 · at Thirsk: A/E 0.93 (n98, raw 0.88) · with this yard: A/E 0.98 (n15, raw 0.94)

ConsensusFIG 13READ 14VAL 14POW 16MKT 130 of 5 instruments have him top-2

LEAD READLead chance ~1% (model 1% through the measured curve · last 9 timed runs · 18 read)

Market path5048 (09:06→15:30, steady, 27 snaps)

V course clockclosing speed 92.8% v course avg 100.6% (−7.9) · top speed 41.5mph v 40.5 (+1.0)

Eye-catcherlast run (BSP 68.7981): the comment reads “short of room” — the visible hard-luck profile is historically OVERBET next start

Stride-fitcareer stride 7.24m (n 9) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — FITS the track

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 86 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=12733

Speed · vs its fields14th of 18

-0.04 mph

About the level of its fields · 41.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph12th of 17

+0.22s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · finishing power15th of 17

48pct

Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 92.8% is vs its own average · −6.0 vs today’s field — that band wins 0.79× chance (9,180 runs)

Stride length15th of 18

7.33 m

Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.354 m on this surface (−0.02 m) · −0.18 m vs today’s field — that band wins 1.02× chance at sharp tracks like this (3,854 runs)

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

27 Jun 26Newcastle6fSlow212th79619297.5Fast early41.7+0.1895.0—

6 Jun 26Epsom Downs6fSoft214th49579292Fast early42.3+0.0089.9+0.30

24 Oct 25Newbury6fHeavy31st105708584True39.5+0.2295.4+0.08

27 Sep 25Haydock Park6fGood312th46548683True41.0-0.1792.4+0.17

16 Aug 25Doncaster5fFirm4———8682True42.4-0.58—+0.00—

28 Jun 25York6fGood413th35498681.5True42.4+0.1291.1+0.53

The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result

DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?

27 Jun 2649.2468.80DRIFT13th of 1412th£5.5k£383k1%50.00ran to expectation

6 Jun 2614.2419.36DRIFT7th of 1514th£18.4k£519k4%100.00underran the market

24 Oct 2519.2217.74STABLE8th of 181st£13.4k£212k6%1.50outran the market

27 Sep 2515.3222.00DRIFT8th of 1212th£11.1k£292k4%21.00underran the market

16 Aug 253.153.67DRIFT2nd of 5NF£41.6k£151k28%3.85well backed, flopped — no pace excuse on the clock

28 Jun 257.678.00STABLE3rd of 1813th£26.9k£234k11%6.00underran the market

Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above

27 Jun weakened · 6 Jun weakened · 24 Oct finished strongly · 27 Sep clean · 16 Aug eased/not knocked about · 28 Jun had to switch, weakened, eased/not knocked about

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.14fast2f+0.19par3f+0.21par4f+0.21par5f+0.48very slow6f+1.34very slow

Timed runs 2025-06-28 to 2026-06-27. · 1 have no 0-20mph split; 1 have no finishing speed in either database — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3130 · null 50%

WOVEN · 2 meetings≈ 11.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

24 Oct 25 · 6f · Heavy — finished 1st vs 5th, 7L ahead · OR 85 v 87 · race median 84 (today 86)

EYE OF DUBAI · 2 meetings≈ 4.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

6 Jun 26 · 6f · Soft — finished 14th vs 10th, 7.3L behind · OR 92 v 90 · race median 92 (today 86)

LORD ROXBY (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a

28 Jun 25 · 6f · Good — finished 13th vs 8th, 12.6L behind · OR 86 v 85 · race median 81.5 (today 86) · stale — 14m ago, not in the read

YES I'M MALI · 1 meeting · n/a

28 Jun 25 · 6f · Good — finished 13th vs 6th, 14.05L behind · OR 86 v 82 · race median 81.5 (today 86) · stale — 14m ago, not in the read

THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-4.3L adj, 4 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs JORDAN ELECTRICS (read through SOLAR ACLAIM, REALIGN, WILD CLARY, VANTHEMAN) ≈ -6L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs DURHAM CASTLE (read through UNCLE DON, FLEETWATER, FINE INTERVIEW, TRILBY) ≈ -4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs KATS BOB (read through TRILBY, GRANT WOOD, WILD CLARY, HAVANA RUM) ≈ -4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs MANILA SCOUSE (read through VANTHEMAN, GRANT WOOD, STATION X, HOODIE HOO) ≈ -4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

5lb above his last winning mark (90 today vs 85)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 3 todayDrops in class todayProven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 1.26)Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 16 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“prominent, pushed along 2f out, weakening when short of room final 1f”

#14 MANILA SCOUSE MID

DRAW 10 · OR 83 · David Allan / Tim Easterby

MARKET drifting 42 → 48 · the market rates it a 2% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−

78.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

70SPEED FIGURE · =10 OF 20 READ

44.24

FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE

we make it a 2% chance

BOTTOM LINE

14th on the figures, 18.7pts off the top, dropping in class; tends to burn early and empty out.

FormLab Figure

78.3 · ranked #14 here · career best 92

Speed Figure (FSF)

25 latest (15 Aug 26) · best 70 (last 6)

Official mark (OR)

83 · last won off 79

Record at today's distance

4 wins from 38 tries · beats market expectation (1.08)

Days since last run

Sectional clock

Last time: 5.5s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 95.86% (one-paced late)

Course fit today

reads against today's track (finishing profile vs what this course demands)

The level · v projected winning figure

best in the last 18 months 92 (53d ago · 6f · Cl4) — 10pts short of the projected 102. 72% of winning horses aged 5+ in 3yo+ handicaps had shown the level first (28% won without). 1 of the field unraced/unexposed — the level read covers only the raced portion; an unexposed runner wins 10% of such races.

Field strength · class context

Sits 3lb below today's median (OR 83 v field 86) · a field 3lb weaker than last time (median 89 then) (RIPON · 15 Aug 26)

Headgear

Tongue strap

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale

14thClass 2 · 6frated —10thClass 2 · 5frated 651stClass 4 · 6frated 926thClass 4 · 6frated 782ndClass 2 · 6frated 89

Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time

FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 17 May 26: 65 · 31 May 26: 70 · 13 Jun 26: 68 · 6 Jul 26: 67 · 1 Aug 26: 59 · 15 Aug 26: 25

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Tim Easterby · 3383 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange

Signature angle: in Class 1-3 company, at 16+ odds, in fields of 12-15

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · all 6 hold in both windows

At Thirsk ✦11/2195.0%0.814/814.9%0.85

In fields of 16+2/1681.2%0.702/732.7%0.90

In Class 1-3 company ✦17/4224.0%0.728/1824.4%0.81

At this time of year (Q3) ✦100/11268.9%0.8924/3277.3%0.80

Coming back after 8 to 14 days ✦70/7789.0%0.8429/3019.6%0.88

Over 5-6f trips ✦110/11559.5%0.9638/4338.8%0.88

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 92 is 10pts short of the projected ~102 needs figure

The rider

David Allan · last 14 days: 4/31 · at Thirsk: A/E 0.85 (n205, raw 0.77) · with this yard: A/E 0.85 (n1748, raw 0.84)

ConsensusFIG 14READ 15VAL 15POW 17MKT 130 of 5 instruments have him top-2

BHA markDROPPED -1lb in this week’s handicap revisions · 84 → 83

LEAD READLead chance ~1% (model 1% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 18 read)

Market path4248 (09:06→15:30, drifting, 27 snaps)

V course clockclosing speed 95.9% v course avg 100.6% (−4.8) · top speed 43.0mph v 40.5 (+2.5)

Eye-catcherlast run (BSP 71.4104): the comment reads “stumbled” — the visible hard-luck profile is historically OVERBET next start

Stride-fitcareer stride 7.44m (n 27) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — FITS the track

Course form1 career win at this track

Time of year3 of 4 career wins have come in this window of the season SEASONAL FLAG — this profile wins 15.7% (A/E 1.08, 2023-25) and 14.2% (A/E 1.11, 2026 holdout); persistently under-priced.

Receiptslast read Ripon 15 Aug: figure ✓ · energy ✗ · class ✓ · pace ≈ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 86 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=12733

Speed · vs its fields8th of 18

+0.10 mph

About the level of its fields · 43.0 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 17

+0.07s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · finishing power16th of 17

47pct

Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 95.9% is vs its own average · −2.9 vs today’s field — that band wins 0.79× chance (9,180 runs)

Stride length3rd of 18

7.70 m

Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.354 m on this surface (+0.35 m) · +0.19 m vs today’s field — that band wins 1.00× chance at sharp tracks like this (3,850 runs) — a stride edge has paid nothing at sharp tracks

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

15 Aug 26Ripon6fGood214th—258589True42.4+0.3186.2—

1 Aug 26Hamilton Park5fGood210th65598487Slow early43.3-0.2497.4—

6 Jul 26Ayr6fGd/Frm41st92677979True42.5-0.2896.8+0.00

13 Jun 26York6fGood46th78688081True42.6+0.3796.5+0.16

31 May 26Thirsk6fGood22nd89707890.5True42.9+0.16100.5+0.00

17 May 26Hamilton Park5fGood33rd85657780True44.5+0.2897.8+0.13

The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result

DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?

15 Aug 2650.6471.41DRIFT14th of 1414th£5.9k£352k2%42.00ran to expectation

1 Aug 2613.379.03STABLE4th of 1110th£10.8k£193k6%470.00underran the market

6 Jul 2614.0210.48STABLE3rd of 171st£13.0k£208k6%4.00ran to expectation

13 Jun 269.967.54STABLE1st of 216th£40.5k£261k16%5.50underran the market

31 May 2617.5520.51DRIFT11th of 142nd£8.3k£186k4%1.23outran the market

17 May 2616.0826.00DRIFT12th of 133rd£12.7k£254k5%7.20outran the market

Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above

15 Aug tailed off, eased/not knocked about · 1 Aug weakened · 6 Jul finished strongly · 13 Jun kept on, no extra · 31 May finished strongly ✓ in-play money believed him · 17 May kept on, late headway

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.38par2f+0.31fast3f+0.36par4f+0.66very slow5f+2.00very slow6f+6.52very slow

Timed runs 2026-05-17 to 2026-08-15. · 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3130 · null 50%

WOVEN · 6 meetings≈ 4.4L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

6 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 9th, 4.7L ahead · OR 79 v 85 · race median 79 (today 86)

JORDAN ELECTRICS · 5 meetings≈ 0.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

6 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 8th, 4.4L ahead · OR 79 v 84 · race median 79 (today 86)

YES I'M MALI · 3 meetings≈ 8.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 6th vs 19th, 9L ahead · OR 80 v 81 · race median 81 (today 86)

KATS BOB · 3 meetings≈ 7.6L ahead on today's terms · confirms

13 Jun 26 · 6f · Good — finished 6th vs 20th, 9.2L ahead · OR 80 v 77 · race median 81 (today 86)

LORD ROXBY (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 35.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

15 Aug 26 · 6f · Good — finished 14th vs 3rd, 36.4L behind · OR 85 v 90 · race median 89 (today 86)

EYE OF DUBAI · 2 meetings≈ 25.4L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

15 Aug 26 · 6f · Good — finished 14th vs 13th, 25L behind · OR 85 v 85 · race median 89 (today 86)

THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — REVERSES strongly vs 6 rival(s) met (-4.3L adj, 15 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs TOPWARRIOR (read through VANTHEMAN, GRANT WOOD, STATION X, HOODIE HOO) ≈ +4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) (read through ALPHA MAGIC, THE GOOD BISCUIT, ETERNAL SUNSHINE, BERGERAC) ≈ -3L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs NOVELLO LAD (read through LORD BERTIE, GRANT WOOD, MISTER SOX, STRONG WARRIOR) ≈ +2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs WE NEVER STOP (IRE) (read through REIGNING PROFIT, STRIKE RED, ETERNAL SUNSHINE, SIR YOSHI) ≈ +2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

4lb above his last winning mark (83 today vs 79)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayDrops in class todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 4 here)

LTO comment

“stumbled start, handy, ridden under 3f out, weakened, eased”

#15 NOVELLO LAD MID

DRAW 16 · OR 88 · David Nolan / Paul Midgley

MARKET backed 65 → 50 · the market rates it a 2% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 6−

77.7 FORMLAB FIGURE

69SPEED FIGURE · =13 OF 20 READ

30.95

FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE

we make it a 3% chance

BOTTOM LINE

15th on the figures, 19.3pts off the top, fits the winner profile on recency; held up without the late gear (8th of 17 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.

FormLab Figure

77.7 · ranked #15 here · career best 98

Speed Figure (FSF)

63 latest (25 Jul 26) · best 69 (last 6)

Official mark (OR)

88 · last won off 85

Record at today's distance

5 wins from 24 tries · beats market expectation (1.18)

Days since last run

Sectional clock

Last time: 0.9s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 98.29% (one-paced late)

Course fit today

no strong lean either way

The level · v projected winning figure

best in the last 18 months 98 (84d ago · 6.01f · Cl4) — 4pts short of the projected 102. 72% of winning horses aged 5+ in 3yo+ handicaps had shown the level first (28% won without). 1 of the field unraced/unexposed — the level read covers only the raced portion; an unexposed runner wins 10% of such races.

Course scale · class context

drops 9 places on the course scale (YORK 2nd → THIRSK 11th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Field strength · class context

Sits 2lb above today's median (OR 88 v field 86) · a near-level field move (-2lb) on last time (YORK · 25 Jul 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale

17thClass 2 · 6frated 738thClass 3 · 6frated 621stClass 4 · 6frated 981stClass 4 · 6frated 963rdClass 4 · 5frated 81

Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time

FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 6 Oct 25: 54 · 23 Apr 26: 66 · 16 May 26: 69 · 5 Jun 26: 66 · 1 Jul 26: 56 · 25 Jul 26: 63

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Paul Midgley · 955 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange

Signature angle: with a runner returning from 60+ days off

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 1 of 1 reverse in 2026

At Thirsk ⇆5/687.4%0.913/2313.0%1.09

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 1 of 6 reverse in 2026

In fields of 16+2/454.4%0.981/333.0%0.90

At this time of year (Q3) ✦28/25311.1%0.994/685.9%0.81

In Class 1-3 company2/812.5%0.781/254.0%0.96

On turf ✦55/50410.9%0.9712/1498.1%0.87

Coming back after 15 to 45 days ⇆52/45011.6%1.0611/1248.9%0.88

Changing jockey from the last run ✦46/45410.1%0.9811/1278.7%0.90

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 98 is 4pts short of the projected ~102 needs figure

The rider

David Nolan · last 14 days: 2/27 · at Thirsk: A/E 1.18 (n86, raw 1.36) · with this yard: A/E 0.96 (n366, raw 0.95)

ConsensusFIG 15READ 1VAL 1POW 9MKT 162 of 5 instruments have him top-2

LEAD READLead chance ~1% (model 1% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 18 read)

Market path6550 (09:06→15:30, backed, 27 snaps)

V course clockclosing speed 98.3% v course avg 100.6% (−2.3) · top speed 41.0mph v 40.5 (+0.5)

Stride-fitcareer stride 7.42m (n 21) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — FITS the track

Receiptslast read York 25 Jul: figure ✓ · connections ✗ · h2h ✓ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 86 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=12733

Speed · vs its fields12th of 18

+0.02 mph

About the level of its fields · 41.0 raw

Break · 0-20mph11th of 17

+0.21s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · finishing power8th of 17

56pct

Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 98.3% is vs its own average · −0.5 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.02× chance (13,862 runs)

Stride length13th of 18

7.44 m

Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.354 m on this surface (+0.09 m) · about level with today’s field (−0.07 m)

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

25 Jul 26York6fGd/Frm217th73638988True41.5+0.2597.0+0.37

1 Jul 26Thirsk6fGd/Frm38th62568983.5True41.8-0.1696.3+0.20

5 Jun 26Doncaster6fGd/Frm41st98668579True41.3-0.21100.7+0.11

16 May 26Doncaster6fGd/Sft41st96697780True40.9-0.02100.3+0.14

23 Apr 26Beverley5fGood43rd81667877Fast early41.9+0.0099.5+0.26

6 Oct 25Pontefract6fSoft39th39547978True38.5+0.2696.0+0.17

The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result

DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?

25 Jul 2681.1070.00STABLE16th of 2117th£3.0k£366k1%44.00ran to expectation

1 Jul 267.696.16STABLE1st of 108th£25.3k£200k13%5.80underran the market

5 Jun 265.797.37DRIFT3rd of 131st£21.3k£147k14%21.00won from a losing position

16 May 265.806.60DRIFT2nd of 121st£20.3k£156k13%6.20ran to expectation

23 Apr 2619.1716.95STABLE7th of 93rd£11.8k£235k5%44.00outran the market

6 Oct 2512.3222.00DRIFT6th of 109th£14.0k£261k5%1000.00underran the market

Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above

25 Jul denied a run, never on terms · 1 Jul hung under pressure, weakened · 5 Jun finished strongly · 16 May finished strongly · 23 Apr denied a run, kept on · 6 Oct hung under pressure

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.34slow2f+0.31par3f+0.29par4f+0.44par5f+0.76slow6f+1.41slow

Timed runs 2025-10-06 to 2026-07-25.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3130 · null 50%

VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 7.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

25 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 17th vs 4th, 7.55L behind · OR 89 v 89 · race median 88 (today 86)

KATS BOB · 2 meetings≈ 0.3L ahead on today's terms · confirms

5 Jun 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 4th, 2.3L ahead · OR 85 v 78 · race median 79 (today 86)

WE NEVER STOP (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 9.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

25 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 17th vs 21st, 9.5L ahead · OR 89 v 87 · race median 88 (today 86)

YES I'M MALI · 1 meeting≈ 5.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

25 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 17th vs 7th, 5.35L behind · OR 89 v 82 · race median 88 (today 86)

WOODSTOCK · 1 meeting · n/a

16 Aug 25 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 11th vs 8th, 1.15L behind · OR 77 v 78 · race median 75 (today 86) · stale — 12m ago, not in the read

LORD ROXBY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 5.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

1 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 5th, 7.75L behind · OR 89 v 84 · race median 83.5 (today 86)

THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — REVERSES strongly vs 5 rival(s) met (-2.5L adj, 6 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs DURHAM CASTLE (read through INDIAN RUN, TRILBY, BALDOMERO, GRANT WOOD) ≈ -5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs EYE OF DUBAI (read through BALDOMERO, STRONG WARRIOR, MISTER SOX, FINE INTERVIEW) ≈ -4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs MANILA SCOUSE (read through LORD BERTIE, GRANT WOOD, MISTER SOX, STRONG WARRIOR) ≈ -2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs WOVEN (read through BALDOMERO, LORD BERTIE, TRILBY, GRANT WOOD) ≈ -2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

3lb above his last winning mark (88 today vs 85)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayDrops in class todayJockey goes well at this track (1.36x market expectation)Lost roughly 1.7 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“mid-field, shuffled back 2f out, no chance after”

#16 EYE OF DUBAI MID

DRAW 19 · OR 82 · Jason Hart / John & Sean Quinn

MARKET drifting 25 → 38 · the market rates it a 3% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−

67 FORMLAB FIGURE

66SPEED FIGURE · =18 OF 20 READ

49.83

FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE

we make it a 2% chance

BOTTOM LINE

16th on the figures, 30pts off the top, dropping in class; the clock has it fading late.

FormLab Figure

67 · ranked #16 here · career best 99

Speed Figure (FSF)

57 latest (15 Aug 26) · best 66 (last 6)

Official mark (OR)

82 · last won off 87

Record at today's distance

4 wins from 26 tries · beats market expectation (1.08)

Days since last run

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.8s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 96.68% (one-paced late)

Course fit today

reads against today's track (finishing profile vs what this course demands)

The level · v projected winning figure

best in the last 18 months 97 (335d ago · 6f · Cl2) — 5pts short of the projected 102. 72% of winning horses aged 5+ in 3yo+ handicaps had shown the level first (28% won without). 1 of the field unraced/unexposed — the level read covers only the raced portion; an unexposed runner wins 10% of such races.

Field strength · class context

Sits 4lb below today's median (OR 82 v field 86) · a field 3lb weaker than last time (median 89 then) (RIPON · 15 Aug 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale

13thClass 2 · 6frated 458thClass 3 · 5frated 7810thClass 2 · 6frated 7811thClass 2 · 6frated 647thClass 2 · 6f22yrated 93

Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time

FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 8 Nov 25: 64 · 26 Nov 25: 61 · 15 Apr 26: 60 · 6 Jun 26: 66 · 25 Jun 26: 64 · 15 Aug 26: 57

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

John & Sean Quinn · 917 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.4 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 3 of 6 reverse in 2026

Below their last winning mark5/3912.8%1.002/1910.5%1.08

In Class 1-3 company15/14110.6%1.083/378.1%1.08

Over 5-6f trips ⇆40/37110.8%0.9818/12214.8%1.26

Coming back after 8 to 14 days ⇆13/1468.9%0.806/3318.2%1.10

Changing jockey from the last run ✦37/34410.8%1.0613/9813.3%1.14

On turf ⇆57/53110.7%0.9316/14111.3%1.11

Too few runners to read reliably

In fields of 16+ (small sample)4/439.3%1.171/128.3%1.06

At Thirsk (small sample)2/523.8%0.840/110.0%0.90

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 99 is 3pts short of the projected ~102 needs figure

The rider

Jason Hart · last 14 days: 7/44 · at Thirsk: A/E 0.93 (n152, raw 0.88) · with this yard: A/E 0.93 (n588, raw 0.92)

ConsensusFIG 16READ 18VAL 18POW 8MKT 120 of 5 instruments have him top-2

BHA markDROPPED -3lb in this week’s handicap revisions · 85 → 82

Clock readFADE — last run result flattered by how the race unfolded on a pace-adjusted sectional read · SURGE faded → fade today

LEAD READLead chance ~1% (model 1% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 18 read)

Market path2538 (09:06→15:30, drifting, 27 snaps)

V course clockclosing speed 96.7% v course avg 100.6% (−3.9) · top speed 41.1mph v 40.5 (+0.6)

Stride-fitcareer stride 7.34m (n 25) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — FITS the track

Receiptslast read Ripon 15 Aug: figure ≈ · energy ≈ · connections ✗ · class ✓ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 86 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=12733

Speed · vs its fields6th of 18

+0.13 mph

About the level of its fields · 41.1 raw

Break · 0-20mph6th of 17

+0.12s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · finishing power7th of 17

57pct

Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 96.7% is vs its own average · −2.1 vs today’s field — that band wins 0.79× chance (9,180 runs)

Stride length12th of 18

7.46 m

Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.354 m on this surface (+0.11 m) · about level with today’s field (−0.05 m)

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

15 Aug 26Ripon6fGood213th45578589True41.9-0.1695.4—

25 Jun 26Hamilton Park5fGd/Frm38th78648883.5True43.7-0.0496.3+0.19

6 Jun 26Epsom Downs6fSoft210th78669092Fast early42.9+0.5791.9+0.08

15 Apr 26Newmarket6fGood211th64609190True40.2+0.0297.8+0.15

26 Nov 25Southwell6f16yStd27th93619292True39.8+0.23101.4+0.13

8 Nov 25Doncaster6fHeavy22nd97649091True38.3+0.1897.3+0.06

The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result

DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?

15 Aug 2626.8240.00DRIFT11th of 1413th£9.2k£352k3%6.20ran to expectation

25 Jun 2610.4819.04DRIFT8th of 88th£12.1k£181k7%18.00ran to expectation

6 Jun 2625.2024.00STABLE8th of 1510th£17.3k£519k3%20.00ran to expectation

15 Apr 2631.9740.00DRIFT11th of 1311th£6.0k£409k1%60.00ran to expectation

26 Nov 2512.3018.00DRIFT6th of 97th£5.9k£99k6%13.50ran to expectation

8 Nov 2534.9529.13STABLE10th of 222nd£6.7k£285k2%8.00outran the market

Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above

15 Aug outpaced ✓ in-play money believed him · 25 Jun late headway · 6 Jun weakened · 15 Apr weakened · 26 Nov denied a run, had to switch, kept on · 8 Nov kept on

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.97very slow2f+1.30par3f+1.25par4f+0.85fast5f+1.08slow6f+2.40very slow

Timed runs 2025-11-08 to 2026-08-15. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3130 · null 50%

WOVEN · 4 meetings≈ 10.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

8 Nov 25 · 6f · Heavy — finished 2nd vs 12th, 8.55L ahead · OR 90 v 87 · race median 91 (today 86)

TOPWARRIOR · 2 meetings≈ 4.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

6 Jun 26 · 6f · Soft — finished 10th vs 14th, 7.3L ahead · OR 90 v 92 · race median 92 (today 86)

MANILA SCOUSE · 2 meetings≈ 25.4L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

15 Aug 26 · 6f · Good — finished 13th vs 14th, 25L ahead · OR 85 v 85 · race median 89 (today 86)

WE NEVER STOP (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 0.6L behind on today's terms · reverses

26 Nov 25 · 6f16y · Std — finished 7th vs 4th, 1.35L behind · OR 92 v 95 · race median 92 (today 86)

KATS BOB · 2 meetings · n/a

4 Aug 25 · 6f · Good — finished 2nd vs 5th, 2.5L ahead · OR 85 v 82 · race median 85 (today 86) · stale — 13m ago, not in the read

LORD ROXBY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 10.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

15 Aug 26 · 6f · Good — finished 13th vs 3rd, 11.4L behind · OR 85 v 90 · race median 89 (today 86)

THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — CONFIRMS strongly vs 5 rival(s) met (+6.3L adj, 7 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs WOODSTOCK (read through BEAUJOLAIS NOUVEAU, MISTER SOX, ROACH POWER, SERGEANT WILKO) ≈ +5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs JORDAN ELECTRICS (read through REALIGN, STATION X, MISTER SOX, TWILIGHT JET) ≈ +4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs NOVELLO LAD (read through BALDOMERO, STRONG WARRIOR, MISTER SOX, FINE INTERVIEW) ≈ +4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs BIG CYRIL (IRE) (read through DARK THIRTY, BADRI, SPACE COWBOY) ≈ +3L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

5lb below his last winning mark (82 today vs 87)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayDrops in class todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“soon behind”

#17 BIG CYRIL (IRE) MID

DRAW 6 · OR 82 · Joanna Mason / Roger Fell

MARKET backed 140 → 120 · the market rates it a 1% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−

64.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

67SPEED FIGURE · =16 OF 20 READ

70.15

FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE

we make it a 1% chance

BOTTOM LINE

17th on the figures, 32.7pts off the top, backed since the morning; its sectional profile is out of date.

FormLab Figure

64.3 · ranked #17 here · career best 89

Speed Figure (FSF)

54 latest (28 Jul 25) · best 67 (last 6)

Official mark (OR)

82 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

1 win from 7 tries · beats market expectation (1.82)

Days since last run

396

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.4s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races midfield and fades

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 99.66% (one-paced late)

Course fit today

suits today's track (finishing profile vs what this course demands)

The level · v projected winning figure

best in the last 18 months 83 (429d ago · 6f · Cl3) — 19pts short of the projected 102. 58% of winning 4yos in 3yo+ handicaps had shown the level first (42% won without). 1 of the field unraced/unexposed — the level read covers only the raced portion; an unexposed runner wins 10% of such races.

Field strength · class context

Sits 4lb below today's median (OR 82 v field 86) · a near-level field move (-2lb) on last time (WINDSOR · 28 Jul 25)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale

6thClass 3 · 6f22yrated 545thClass 3 · 6frated 838thClass 1 · 7frated 566thClass 1 · 6frated 893rdClass 1 · 6frated 86

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 22 Jun 24: 59 · 19 Jul 24: 67 · 1 Aug 24: 65 · 2 May 25: 57 · 25 Jun 25: 64 · 28 Jul 25: 54

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Roger Fell · 454 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.0 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 1 of 2 reverse in 2026

Over 5-6f trips9/959.5%1.074/3411.8%1.13

In fields of 16+ ⇆0/210.0%0.821/156.7%1.02

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 1 of 4 reverse in 2026

In Class 1-3 company1/372.7%0.910/250.0%0.79

At this time of year (Q3) ✦6/807.5%0.884/626.5%0.76

At Thirsk0/150.0%0.861/156.7%0.91

Changing jockey from the last run ⇆23/18912.2%1.199/1157.8%0.90

Too few runners to read reliably

Coming back after 180 days+ (small sample)1/520.0%1.071/333.3%1.08

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 89 is 13pts short of the projected ~102 needs figure

The rider

Joanna Mason · last 14 days: 2/27 · at Thirsk: A/E 0.98 (n107, raw 0.96) · with this yard: A/E 1.05 (n79, raw 1.11)

ConsensusFIG 17READ 16VAL 16POW 14MKT 180 of 5 instruments have him top-2

LEAD READLead chance ~16% (model 20% through the measured curve · last 7 timed runs · 18 read)

Market path140120 (09:06→15:30, backed, 27 snaps)

V course clockclosing speed 99.7% v course avg 100.6% (−1.0) · top speed 41.5mph v 40.5 (+1.0)

Stride-fitcareer stride 7.25m (n 7) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — FITS the track

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 86 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=12733

Speed · vs its fields5th of 18

+0.17 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 41.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph10th of 17

+0.20s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · finishing power13th of 17

51pct

Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 99.7% is vs its own average · +0.9 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.13× chance (9,259 runs)

Stride length14th of 18

7.36 m

Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.354 m on this surface (+0.01 m) · −0.15 m vs today’s field — that band wins 1.02× chance at sharp tracks like this (3,854 runs)

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

28 Jul 25Windsor6f12yGd/Frm36th54549088True42.4+0.0095.4+0.18

25 Jun 25Salisbury6fGd/Frm35th83649492Slow early40.4+0.18104.1+0.24

2 May 25Newmarket7fGood18th5657——True40.1+0.3296.0+0.16

1 Aug 24Goodwood6fGd/Frm16th8965——Fast early43.3-0.4995.9+0.20

19 Jul 24Newbury6fGd/Frm13rd8667——True—102.0—

22 Jun 24Ayr6fGd/Frm41st8259——True41.2+0.82104.5+0.20

The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result

DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?

28 Jul 2521.0638.00DRIFT6th of 76th£6.5k£230k3%9.80ran to expectation

25 Jun 2513.2821.75DRIFT5th of 55th£16.8k£238k7%21.00ran to expectation

2 May 25228.12231.34STABLE10th of 108th£3.1k£604k1%180.00ran to expectation

1 Aug 2454.1752.72STABLE8th of 96th£8.3k£761k1%18.00ran to expectation

19 Jul 247.086.19STABLE3rd of 93rd£47.1k£310k15%8.00ran to expectation

22 Jun 246.183.82STABLE3rd of 51st£32.2k£156k21%2.96ran to expectation

Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above

28 Jul slow away, weakened · 25 Jun had to switch, weakened · 2 May never on terms · 1 Aug hung under pressure, weakened, outpaced · 19 Jul kept on · 22 Jun kept on

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1fledfast2fledpar3fledpar4fledslow5f+0.57very slow6f+2.08very slow

Timed runs 2024-06-22 to 2025-07-28 · last timed run 396 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3130 · null 50%

Read through a common rival

vs JORDAN ELECTRICS (read through BADRI, KODI LION, DARK THIRTY, CHIEF MANKATO) ≈ -5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs EYE OF DUBAI (read through DARK THIRTY, BADRI, SPACE COWBOY) ≈ -3L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs WOVEN (read through DARK THIRTY, KODI LION, BADRI) ≈ +2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs WE NEVER STOP (IRE) (read through DARK THIRTY, BADRI, KODI LION, CHIEF MANKATO) ≈ +2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionReturns from 396 days offHistorically underestimated by the marketRun-style and sectional profile are mismatched to how this course & distance is won

LTO comment

“led, pushed along soon after halfway, headed under 2f out, weakened”

#18 WE NEVER STOP (IRE) MID

DRAW 2 · OR 87 · Kevin Stott / Kevin Ryan

MARKET backed 60 → 50 · the market rates it a 2% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−

58.7 FORMLAB FIGURE

75SPEED FIGURE · =1 OF 20 READ

55.64

FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE

we make it a 2% chance

BOTTOM LINE

18th on the figures, 38.3pts off the top, fits the winner profile on recency; behind the rivals it has met on collateral form.

FormLab Figure

58.7 · ranked #18 here · career best 104

Speed Figure (FSF)

51 latest (25 Jul 26) · best 75 (last 6)

Official mark (OR)

87 · last won off 95

Record at today's distance

5 wins from 30 tries · beats market expectation (1.62)

Days since last run

Sectional clock

Last time: 2.2s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races midfield and fades

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 96.92% (one-paced late)

Course fit today

reads against today's track (finishing profile vs what this course demands)

The level · v projected winning figure

has run to 104 (497d ago · 6f · Cl2) — 2pts ABOVE the projected 102. 58% of winning horses aged 5+ in 3yo+ handicaps had shown it inside 12 months. 1 of the field unraced/unexposed — the level read covers only the raced portion; an unexposed runner wins 10% of such races.

Course scale · class context

drops 9 places on the course scale (YORK 2nd → THIRSK 11th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Field strength · class context

Sits 1lb above today's median (OR 87 v field 86) · a near-level field move (-2lb) on last time (YORK · 25 Jul 26)

Headgear

Cheekpieces

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale

21stClass 2 · 6frated 372ndClass 3 · 6f22yrated 9316thClass 2 · 5frated 4619thClass 2 · 6frated 448thClass 3 · 5frated 64

Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time

FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 19 Mar 26: 74 · 14 Apr 26: 52 · 13 May 26: 55 · 23 May 26: 47 · 27 Jun 26: 75 · 25 Jul 26: 51

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Kevin Ryan · 1430 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.9 on the exchange

Signature angle: with a runner returning from 60+ days off

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 1 of 2 reverse in 2026

At Thirsk8/5414.8%1.135/3813.2%1.09

Below their last winning mark ⇆4/596.8%0.933/319.7%1.05

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 2 of 4 reverse in 2026

In fields of 16+5/1433.5%0.880/410.0%0.70

At this time of year (Q3) ✦42/4459.4%0.975/1134.4%0.80

In Class 1-3 company ⇆44/4619.5%1.068/1634.9%0.81

Over 5-6f trips ⇆89/65213.7%1.1423/2559.0%0.88

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 104 at/around today's trip, clears the projected ~102 needs figure

The rider

Kevin Stott · last 14 days: 3/15 · at Thirsk: A/E 1.13 (n39, raw 1.34) · with this yard: A/E 0.80 (n214, raw 0.73)

ConsensusFIG 18READ 7VAL 7POW 18MKT 160 of 5 instruments have him top-2

LEAD READLead chance ~5% (model 5% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 18 read)

Market path6050 (09:06→15:30, backed, 27 snaps)

V course clockclosing speed 96.9% v course avg 100.6% (−3.7) · top speed 41.4mph v 40.5 (+0.9)

Eye-catcherlast run (BSP 60): the comment reads “hampered” — the visible hard-luck profile is historically OVERBET next start

Stride-fitcareer stride 7.63m (n 25) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — action matches the extreme

Receiptslast read York 25 Jul: figure ✗ · connections ✗ · h2h ✓ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 86 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=12733

Speed · vs its fields16th of 18

-0.16 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 41.4 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 17

+0.07s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · finishing power17th of 17

42pct

Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 96.9% is vs its own average · −1.8 vs today’s field — that band wins 0.95× chance (9,444 runs)

Stride length4th of 18

7.67 m

Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.354 m on this surface (+0.32 m) · +0.16 m vs today’s field — that band wins 1.00× chance at sharp tracks like this (3,850 runs) — a stride edge has paid nothing at sharp tracks

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

25 Jul 26York6fGd/Frm221st37518788True41.6+0.3193.8+0.23

27 Jun 26Chester6f17yGood32nd93758686True40.7-0.34101.9+0.00

23 May 26York5fGood216th46478987True42.2-0.0396.5+0.39

13 May 26York6fGd/Sft219th44559193True41.3-0.4990.7-0.25

14 Apr 26Newmarket5fGood38th64529287.5True40.5-0.43101.2+0.00

19 Mar 26Newcastle6fStd23rd95749294True42.0+0.0497.5+0.08

The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result

DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?

25 Jul 2660.3260.00STABLE15th of 2121st£6.2k£366k2%50.00underran the market

27 Jun 2636.9423.00STABLE8th of 92nd£8.0k£302k3%11.00outran the market

23 May 2663.9951.96STABLE13th of 1616th£3.4k£209k2%50.00underran the market

13 May 26103.4664.96STABLE16th of 2219th£3.9k£493k1%65.00underran the market

14 Apr 266.439.09DRIFT5th of 88th£28.2k£260k11%8.00underran the market

19 Mar 266.307.80DRIFT4th of 73rd£22.9k£234k10%7.00ran to expectation

Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above

25 Jul outpaced · 27 Jun outpaced then kept on (trip signal) · 23 May slow away, weakened · 13 May weakened · 14 Apr outpaced · 19 Mar no extra

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.35slow2f+0.40slow3f+0.49slow4f+0.60par5f+1.00slow6f+3.00very slow

Timed runs 2026-03-19 to 2026-07-25.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3130 · null 50%

JORDAN ELECTRICS · 3 meetings≈ 23.1L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

20 Sep 25 · 6f · Soft — finished 25th vs 11th, 21.55L behind · OR 97 v 100 · race median 96 (today 86)

EYE OF DUBAI · 2 meetings≈ 0.6L ahead on today's terms · confirms

26 Nov 25 · 6f16y · Std — finished 4th vs 7th, 1.35L ahead · OR 95 v 92 · race median 92 (today 86)

VEBLEN GOOD (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 17.1L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

25 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 21st vs 4th, 17.05L behind · OR 87 v 89 · race median 88 (today 86)

NOVELLO LAD · 1 meeting≈ 9.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

25 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 21st vs 17th, 9.5L behind · OR 87 v 89 · race median 88 (today 86)

YES I'M MALI · 1 meeting≈ 14.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

25 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 21st vs 7th, 14.85L behind · OR 87 v 82 · race median 88 (today 86)

WOVEN · 1 meeting≈ 10.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

13 May 26 · 6f · Gd/Sft — finished 19th vs 7th, 11.35L behind · OR 91 v 86 · race median 93 (today 86)

Read through a common rival

vs KATS BOB (read through TRILBY, ROUSING ENCORE, HAVANA RUM, ROCK OPERA) ≈ -6L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs DURHAM CASTLE (read through INDIAN RUN, TRILBY, BALDOMERO, CHANGE SINGS) ≈ -5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs LORD ROXBY (IRE) (read through TRILBY, DARK CLOUD RISING, COMMANCHE FALLS, ROUSING ENCORE) ≈ -5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

vs WOODSTOCK (read through ROCK OPERA, MISTER SOX, GLENFINNAN, HAVANA RUM) ≈ -4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=6266 · null 50%

8lb below his last winning mark (87 today vs 95)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayDrops in class todayProven over the trip (30 tries, beats market expectation at 1.62)Jockey goes well at this track (1.34x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“held up, ridden halfway, hampered over 1f out”

#19 DEEP HAVANA

DRAW 14 · OR 90 · Faleh Bughenaim / Hamad Al Jehani

MARKET 28 · the market rates it a 4% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−

— FORMLAB FIGURE

59SPEED FIGURE · #20 OF 20 READ

22.18

FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE

we make it a 5% chance

LOW DATA · 0 runs

BOTTOM LINE

Fits the winner profile on market position; the price is the only question.

FormLab Figure

no rating yet (no rated runs on record)

Speed Figure (FSF)

59 latest (9 Nov 23)

Official mark (OR)

90 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

untried at this distance

Days since last run

first run on record

Sectional clock

No timed runs on record

Run style & finish

— · no timed finishing data

Course fit today

no fit read yet (needs 3+ timed runs)

The level · v projected winning figure

—

Recent form · last 0 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale

FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 2 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 19 Oct 23: 53 · 9 Nov 23: 59

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Hamad Al Jehani · 202 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange

Signature angle: changing jockey from the last run

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 1 of 2 reverse in 2026

In fields of 16+ ⇆0/220.0%0.814/3312.1%1.16

In Class 1-3 company ✦12/8913.5%1.0110/7014.3%1.14

Too few runners to read reliably

At Thirsk ⇆ (small sample)0/10.0%0.991/1100.0%1.01

Can it do what today needs? no figure on record — unproven

The rider

Faleh Bughenaim · last 14 days: 0/6 · with this yard: A/E 0.96 (n30, raw 0.79)

ConsensusREAD 19VAL 19MKT 100 of 3 instruments have him top-2

Market path2828 (09:06→15:30, steady, 27 snaps)

Sectional profile

No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.

Data gaps · no timed sectional runs on record · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (0 figures) · no FormLab figure

The lean: ANYASI · both orders settle in the nightly record either way. This report is a snapshot: figures, market and going are as of build time. · build de7b74dthe full settled record → · ↑ back to top

FORMLAB

ANYASI

Who this is. Only 3 recorded flat runs - the story is short by honesty, not oversight.

The figures. The FormLab figure today: 97.0, ranked #1 in this field; career best 97.

The handicap. Today's mark is 90, yet to win off any mark.

The class. RISES in grade today (class 4 last time → 3).

The company. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 30th, 21st, 30th; today's course ranks 11th - the strongest-ranked stop of the recent campaign.

The conditions. At today's distance: 2 wins from 3 tries - beats market expectation at the trip (1.69). Unraced on good ground - today asks a new question.

The clock. Too few earlier timed runs to compare eras - the profile so far: holds late, races midfield. Run by run (newest first):

04 Jul 2026	Leicester	fin 1/6	FSF 66	pos 0.50	fsp 100.7
11 Jun 2026	Yarmouth	fin 1/8	FSF 46	pos 0.38	fsp 106.6
10 Aug 2025	Leicester	fin 3/6	FSF 50	pos 0.83	fsp 98.0

The mechanism (career read). No stride record at this course yet, so the career speaks: 7.25m a stride over 3 measured runs against 7.34m at this LONG-stride track - the action FITS - stride and track are built for each other. [P96] tested this cell over 144,801 runs: fully priced by the market. It explains; it never tips.

The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: Ascot, Ayr, Bath, Beverley. Reads against: Chepstow, Lingfield Park

The money. Too few priced runs for a market biography.

The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 08-10: finished 3 at BSP 25.0, traded 17.00 in-running; 06-11: finished 1 at BSP 2.3, traded 1.01 in-running; 07-04: finished 1 at BSP 1.4, traded 1.01 in-running.

The people. The yard, last 14 days: 6 winners from 17 runners (35%) - hot. This jockey with this yard: 327 prior rides, A/E 0.96 - a fair-priced pairing.

The campaign. Runs 55 days after the last start. The wins came 24-311 days after a previous run - today is inside the winning window.

Today's ask. Thirsk on Good: front-runners win at 2.60x chance (301 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.35m. For this horse, today's field-relative read is FOR: finishing profile vs what the course demands. The race shape: 3 early types in a 19-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is not among them - the collapse, if it comes, is the opportunity. The Setup Read counts this horse +0 across its six measured dimensions - neutral on the day's setup. The counted verdict ranks this horse #8, votes for: figure top-2; form (top-3 LTO or recent win); market top-3; top-2 speed vs its fields. The profile likes this one more than the count does - that tension IS the read.

The live signals. The clock's pace-adjusted read files the last run WATCH - better than the bare result suggests. In the read's own words: “Won at Leicester (6f) — above the field's pace-adjusted level; its closing 2f was +0.74s inside the leic/C4/FAST par. Closed around par (FSP 100.7%).”. On the exchange he has been steady since 09:06 - 4.6 then, 4.6 at 15:30.

The watch line. The read turns negative the day the money stays away or the clock era slips - watch the next timed run and the next market.

FORMLAB

DURHAM CASTLE

Who this is. A 7-run class 3 handicapper. 3 career wins, each on the record (newest first):

16 Jun 2025	Windsor	~6f	BSP 2.36	off 89
03 Sep 2024	Goodwood	~6f	BSP 3.23	off 80
18 Aug 2024	Southwell	~6f	BSP 2.50

The mark has risen from 80 to 92 - the handicapper's own verdict on the arc of this career.

The figures. The FormLab figure today: 96.0, ranked #2 in this field; career best 101. Per-run ratings, last 5: 101 → 85 → 100 → 92 → 96. The best of them (101) was set 03 Sep 2024 at Goodwood. The latest ratings sit at or near the best - the ability is current, not historical.

The handicap. Today's mark is 90 - 1 lb HIGHER than the 89 it last won off; the handicapper still holds the form hostage. The winning marks on record: 80, 89 - today's 90 sits outside that band. The mark had been rising across the last runs (80 → 92), then eased 2 lb to today's 90.

The class. At today's level (class 3): 4 runs, 1 win, 1 top-3.

The company. The recent fields' median marks: 80, 88, 86, 86, 82. Today's field median is 86 - much the same level of company as of late. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 3rd, 8th, 14th, 17th, 14th; today's course ranks 11th - within the recent range.

The conditions. At today's distance: 3 wins from 7 tries - beats market expectation at the trip (1.61). On good ground (today's band): 2 runs, 1 win, 1 top-3.

The clock. Too few earlier timed runs to compare eras - the profile so far: long-striding (7.61m v 7.28 national), holds late, races midfield. Run by run (newest first):

15 Jun 2026	Windsor	fin 6/12	FSF 67	pos 0.42	fsp 98.0
28 Mar 2026	Kempton Park	fin 5/11	FSF 64	pos 1.00	fsp 100.1
16 Jun 2025	Windsor	fin 1/6	FSF 68	pos 0.50	fsp 99.1
03 Sep 2024	Goodwood	fin 1/10	FSF 68	pos 0.80	fsp 100.7
18 Aug 2024	Southwell	fin 1/13	FSF 65	pos 0.14	fsp 106.6

1 of the last 6 runs carry no sectional coverage - gaps, not zeros.

The mechanism (career read). No stride record at this course yet, so the career speaks: 7.68m a stride over 6 measured runs against 7.34m at this LONG-stride track - the action matches the track's extreme. [P96] tested this cell over 144,801 runs: fully priced by the market. It explains; it never tips.

The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: Ascot, Ayr, Bath, Beverley. Reads against: none

The money's biography. Over 7 priced runs, the market has historically been LATE on this horse (blind BSP backing +14%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 0 steams to 1 drift across the career; the wins came at BSP 2.5, 3.2, 2.4; all 3 traded 1.01 in-running - when the blow lands it is decisive; and in the whole career this horse has never traded below 2.0 and lost: the flops are honest, beaten early, not late. Peak conviction: 03 Sep 2024 at Goodwood, £164k matched of £342k in the race. The recent money (newest first):

15 Jun 2026	Windsor	drifted 5.6 → 9.6	£37k of £206k	beaten 6th
28 Mar 2026	Kempton Park	held steady 4.4 → 3.9	£60k of £222k	beaten 5th
16 Jun 2025	Windsor	held steady 2.7 → 2.4	£144k of £283k	won

The recent money pattern is quiet. Today, live: morning 27 → current 21 (backed).

The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 06-16: finished 1 at BSP 2.4, traded 1.01 in-running; 03-28: finished 5 at BSP 3.9, traded 4.80 in-running; 06-15: finished 6 at BSP 9.6, traded 8.00 in-running.

The people. The yard, last 14 days: 3 winners from 17 runners (18%) - in form. This jockey with this yard: 42 prior rides, A/E 0.72 - a combination the market over-trusts.

The campaign. Runs 74 days after the last start. The wins came 16-107 days after a previous run - today is inside the winning window.

Today's ask. Thirsk on Good: front-runners win at 2.60x chance (301 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.35m. For this horse, today's field-relative read is FOR: finishing profile vs what the course demands. The race shape: 3 early types in a 19-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is not among them - the collapse, if it comes, is the opportunity. The Setup Read counts this horse +2 across its six measured dimensions - on the right side of how the race sets up. Drawn 12 of 19 (the early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 3.3 of 20, field average 10.9)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #2, votes for: figure top-2; form (top-3 LTO or recent win); backed since morning; top-2 late speed today; energy in the winning band; proven at trip; fits the winner profile on market position.

The live signals. On the exchange he has been backed since 09:06 - 27 then, 21 at 15:30.

The watch line. The read turns negative the day the money stays away or the clock era slips - watch the next timed run and the next market.

FORMLAB

VEBLEN GOOD (IRE)

Who this is. A 11-run class 3 handicapper. 2 career wins, each on the record (newest first):

29 Apr 2026	Pontefract	~6f	BSP 22.00	off 87
14 Oct 2024	Wolverhampton	~5f	BSP 2.18

The recent core is turf: 10 of the last 11 runs.

The figures. The FormLab figure today: 95, ranked #3 in this field; career best 99. Per-run ratings, last 5: 63 → 93 → 93 → 99 → 93. The best of them (99) was set 25 Jul 2026 at York. The latest ratings sit at or near the best - the ability is current, not historical.

The handicap. Today's mark is 89 - 2 lb HIGHER than the 87 it last won off; the handicapper still holds the form hostage. The winning marks on record: 87 - today's 89 sits outside that band.

The class. At today's level (class 3): 5 runs, 1 win, 3 top-3. In stronger company (class 2-2): 3 runs, 0 wins, 0 top-3 - the level matters.

The company. The recent fields' median marks: 90, 84, 76, 88, 82. Today's field median is 86 - much the same level of company as of late. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 6th, 11th, 12th, 2nd, 18th; today's course ranks 11th - within the recent range.

The conditions. At today's distance: 2 wins from 11 tries - beats market expectation at the trip (1.29). On good ground (today's band): 2 runs, 1 win, 2 top-3.

The horse on the clock - and the one replacing it. Two different animals share this form book. The earlier era: early position 0.54 of the field, closing at 99.5%. The recent six: position 0.89, closing at 98.6%. The profile that earned the older form is not the one arriving today. Run by run (newest first):

16 Aug 2026	Pontefract	fin 4/9	FSF 65	pos 0.78	fsp -
25 Jul 2026	York	fin 4/21	FSF 74	pos 1.00	fsp 101.6 (TF)
20 Jul 2026	Ayr	fin 3/9	FSF 60	pos 0.67	fsp 98.6
01 Jul 2026	Thirsk	fin 3/10	FSF 68	pos 1.00	fsp 100.9
05 Jun 2026	Epsom Downs	fin 13/16	FSF 61	pos 0.88	fsp 94.8
29 Apr 2026	Pontefract	fin 1/6	FSF 64	pos 1.00	fsp 100.2

The venue. 1 previous try at today's course: 3 - the record here is mixed, whatever the profile says.

The mechanism (career read). No stride record at this course yet, so the career speaks: 7.55m a stride over 10 measured runs against 7.34m at this LONG-stride track - the action matches the track's extreme. [P96] tested this cell over 144,801 runs: fully priced by the market. It explains; it never tips.

The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: no strong home - the least-against are Wolverhampton (where the wins live). Reads against: Ascot, Ayr, Bath, Beverley. Today sits in the AGAINST set.

The money's biography. Over 11 priced runs, the market has historically been LATE on this horse (blind BSP backing +116%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 0 steams to 3 drifts across the career; the wins came at BSP 2.2, 22.0; all 2 traded 1.01 in-running - when the blow lands it is decisive; and in the whole career this horse has never traded below 2.0 and lost: the flops are honest, beaten early, not late. Peak conviction: 14 Oct 2024 at Wolverhampton, £136k matched of £235k in the race. The recent money (newest first):

16 Aug 2026	Pontefract	held steady 4.0 → 4.0	£68k of £225k	beaten 4th
25 Jul 2026	York	held steady 28.6 → 28.8	£9k of £366k	beaten 4th
20 Jul 2026	Ayr	held steady 4.9 → 4.9	£54k of £257k	beaten 3rd

The recent pattern: the money is arriving. Today, live: morning 7 → current 7.4 (steady).

The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 07-20: finished 3 at BSP 4.9, traded 2.18 in-running; 07-25: finished 4 at BSP 28.8, traded 20.00 in-running; 08-16: finished 4 at BSP 4.0, traded 3.55 in-running.

A tension, named. The clock and the money point in opposite directions here. The layers are shown, never forced to agree - the disagreement itself is the information.

The form, reconciled. The wins have come racing forward AND from off the pace - the winning mode is tactical, not fixed, so a run-style objection is a variable here, never a verdict (the winning runs' own positions say so). The best of the old form (2nd at Sandown Park, 13 Sep 2024; 1st at Wolverhampton, 14 Oct 2024; 2nd at Pontefract, 08 Apr 2025) was earned by the EARLIER profile era - judge it against the horse that earned it, not the one arriving today. If the old numbers return on the clock, the map redraws - that is the thing to watch in the next sectionals.

The people. The yard, last 14 days: 3 winners from 39 runners (8%) - quiet. This jockey with this yard: 42 prior rides, A/E 1.55 - a combination the market underestimates.

The campaign. Runs 12 days after the last start. The wins came 32-241 days after a previous run - today is OUTSIDE the winning window.

Today's ask. Thirsk on Good: front-runners win at 2.60x chance (301 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.35m. For this horse, today's field-relative read is AGAINST: run style vs how races develop here. The race shape: 3 early types in a 19-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is not among them - the collapse, if it comes, is the opportunity. The Setup Read counts this horse +0 across its six measured dimensions - neutral on the day's setup. Drawn 13 of 19 (the early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 3.3 of 20, field average 10.9)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #9, votes for: race-fit (ran <=45d); market top-3; energy in the winning band; proven at trip; ahead of rivals met on collateral form; against: habitually slow away.

The live signals. The handicapper dropped him 1lb in this week's revisions (89 to 88). On the exchange he has been drifting since 09:06 - 7 then, 7.4 at 15:30. Our own ledger holds the receipts from the last start (Pontefract, 16 Aug): the figure read missed, the class read missed, the pace read missed, the h2h read hit - the same nightly grading that feeds the masthead record.

The watch line. A mixed page - the next timed run decides which story this becomes.

FORMLAB

LORD ROXBY (IRE)

Who this is. A 24-run class 2 handicapper. 4 career wins, each on the record (newest first):

03 Aug 2026	Ripon	~6f	BSP 4.52	off 85
23 May 2026	York	~6f	BSP 13.50	off 78
28 May 2025	Hamilton Park	~6f	BSP 4.10	off 78
14 Aug 2024	Beverley	~5f	BSP 6.00

The mark has risen from 81 to 90 - the handicapper's own verdict on the arc of this career. The recent core is turf: 19 of the last 20 runs.

The figures. The FormLab figure today: 94, ranked #4 in this field; career best 99. Per-run ratings, last 5: 87 → 85 → 92 → 99 → 91. The best of them (99) was set 03 Aug 2026 at Ripon. The latest ratings sit at or near the best - the ability is current, not historical.

The handicap. Today's mark is 90 - 5 lb HIGHER than the 85 it last won off; the handicapper still holds the form hostage. The winning marks on record: 78, 78, 85 - today's 90 sits outside that band. The mark had been rising across the last runs (84 → 90).

The class. At today's level (class 3): 4 runs, 1 win, 2 top-3. In stronger company (class 2-2): 1 runs, 0 wins, 1 top-3 - the level matters. DROPS in grade today (class 2 last time → 3).

The company. The recent fields' median marks: 81, 84, 76, 84, 89. Today's field median is 86 - much the same level of company as of late. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 2nd, 11th, 12th, 13th, 13th; today's course ranks 11th - within the recent range.

The conditions. At today's distance: 4 wins from 23 tries - beats market expectation at the trip (1.31). On good ground (today's band): 8 runs, 2 wins, 6 top-3.

The clock. A stable profile, no era shift: long-striding (7.75m v 7.28 national), spends early and doesn't finish, races midfield. Run by run (newest first):

15 Aug 2026	Ripon	fin 3/14	FSF 71	pos 0.14	fsp 96.9
03 Aug 2026	Ripon	fin 1/7	FSF 75	pos 0.29	fsp 98.2
20 Jul 2026	Ayr	fin 2/9	FSF 62	pos 0.78	fsp 99.1
01 Jul 2026	Thirsk	fin 5/10	FSF 66	pos 0.70	fsp 100.0
13 Jun 2026	York	fin 4/21	FSF 70	pos 0.24	fsp 96.3
23 May 2026	York	fin 1/20	FSF 73	pos 0.20	fsp 95.8

The venue. 1 previous try at today's course: 5 - the record here leans against, whatever the profile says.

The mechanism (career read). No stride record at this course yet, so the career speaks: 7.58m a stride over 24 measured runs against 7.34m at this LONG-stride track - the action matches the track's extreme. [P96] tested this cell over 144,801 runs: fully priced by the market. It explains; it never tips.

The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: Kempton Park, Lingfield Park, Wolverhampton. Reads against: Bath, Beverley, Brighton, Catterick Bridge. Today sits in the AGAINST set.

The money's biography. Over 24 priced runs, the market has historically been LATE on this horse (blind BSP backing +15%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 1 steam to 7 drifts across the career; the wins came at BSP 6.0, 4.1, 13.5, 4.5; all 4 traded 1.01 in-running - when the blow lands it is decisive. Peak conviction: 15 Aug 2026 at Ripon, £77k matched of £352k in the race. The recent money (newest first):

15 Aug 2026	Ripon	held steady 7.2 → 4.7	£77k of £352k	beaten 3rd
03 Aug 2026	Ripon	held steady 5.7 → 4.5	£56k of £286k	won
20 Jul 2026	Ayr	held steady 6.6 → 5.4	£35k of £257k	beaten 2nd

The recent pattern: the money is arriving. Today, live: morning 13 → current 13.5 (steady).

The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 07-20: finished 2 at BSP 5.4, traded 5.00 in-running; 08-03: finished 1 at BSP 4.5, traded 1.01 in-running; 08-15: finished 3 at BSP 4.7, traded 3.60 in-running.

The people. The yard, last 14 days: 0 winners from 21 runners (0%) - cold. This jockey with this yard: 414 prior rides, A/E 1.15 - a combination the market underestimates.

The campaign. Runs 13 days after the last start. The wins came 11-14 days after a previous run - today is inside the winning window.

Today's ask. Thirsk on Good: front-runners win at 2.60x chance (301 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.35m. For this horse, the fit engine reads today neutral on every dimension - honestly, it has nothing to say; the record and the market carry this one. The race shape: 3 early types in a 19-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is one of them, cast in the pressure. The Setup Read counts this horse -2 across its six measured dimensions - set up against, by the count. Drawn 4 of 19 (the early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 3.3 of 20, field average 10.9)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #5, votes for: drops in class; race-fit (ran <=45d); form (top-3 LTO or recent win); quickest early type; runs the dominant winning style here; proven at trip; proven on the going; fits the winner profile on market position; against: burns early and empties; yard cold; 5lb+ above last winning mark.

The live signals. On the exchange he has been steady since 09:06 - 13 then, 13.5 at 15:30. Our own ledger holds the receipts from the last start (Ripon, 15 Aug): the figure read hit, the energy read hit, the connections read hit, the class read part-hit - the same nightly grading that feeds the masthead record.

The watch line. The read turns negative the day the money stays away or the clock era slips - watch the next timed run and the next market.

FORMLAB

JORDAN ELECTRICS

Who this is. A 40-run class 3 handicapper. 11 career wins, each on the record (newest first):

20 Jul 2026	Ayr	~6f	BSP 4.52	off 82
03 Aug 2024	Hamilton Park	~5f	BSP 4.26	off 96
19 Jul 2024	Hamilton Park	~6f	BSP 7.80	off 92
02 Jul 2024	Hamilton Park	~6f	BSP 3.15	off 85
27 Jun 2024	Hamilton Park	~5f	BSP 3.15	off 80
12 Jun 2024	Hamilton Park	~6f	BSP 3.60	off 78
20 May 2024	Carlisle	~5f	BSP 3.90	off 75
14 May 2024	Ayr	~6f	BSP 3.64	off 71
01 Sep 2023	Carlisle	~5f	BSP 11.34	off 71
14 May 2023	Hamilton Park	~5f	BSP 12.50	off 74

6 of the 11 came at Hamilton Park - the career has an address. The mark has risen from 70 to 86 - the handicapper's own verdict on the arc of this career. The recent core is turf: 20 of the last 20 runs.

The figures. The FormLab figure today: 92.0, ranked #5 in this field; career best 109. Per-run ratings, last 5: 82 → 82 → 87 → 94 → 92. The best of them (109) was set 21 Aug 2024 at York. Nothing in the last three has run within 15 lb of that best - the figures say the peak is behind, until they say otherwise.

The handicap. Today's mark is 86 - 4 lb HIGHER than the 82 it last won off; the handicapper still holds the form hostage. The winning marks on record: 70, 74, 71, 71, 75, 78, 80, 85, 92, 96, 82 - today's 86 sits inside that band.

The class. At today's level (class 3): 11 runs, 4 wins, 6 top-3. In stronger company (class 2-2): 17 runs, 2 wins, 4 top-3.

The company. The recent fields' median marks: 79, 79, 88, 76, 86. Today's field median is 86 - a 7 lb STRONGER race than the recent company. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 16th, 12th, 16th, 12th, 16th; today's course ranks 11th - the strongest-ranked stop of the recent campaign.

The conditions. At today's distance: 11 wins from 40 tries - beats market expectation at the trip (2.36). On good ground (today's band): 15 runs, 5 wins, 6 top-3.

The horse on the clock - improving. The recent six have moved forward on the six before: closing speed 96.8% to 97.9%, early position 0.50 to 0.20. Run by run (newest first):

21 Aug 2026	Hamilton Park	fin 3/11	FSF 66	pos 0.45	fsp -
20 Jul 2026	Ayr	fin 1/9	FSF 63	pos 0.11	fsp 98.5
17 Jul 2026	Hamilton Park	fin 3/7	FSF 75	pos 0.14	fsp 99.9
06 Jul 2026	Ayr	fin 8/17	FSF 61	pos 0.24	fsp 95.2
17 Jun 2026	Hamilton Park	fin 4/8	FSF 61	pos 0.12	fsp 97.8
30 May 2026	Carlisle	fin 5/14	FSF 70	pos 0.14	fsp 103.1 (TF)

The mechanism (career read). No stride record at this course yet, so the career speaks: 7.60m a stride over 31 measured runs against 7.34m at this LONG-stride track - the action matches the track's extreme. [P96] tested this cell over 144,801 runs: fully priced by the market. It explains; it never tips.

The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: Ascot, Ayr, Carlisle, Chelmsford City. Reads against: Goodwood. Arbitration: the map likes Ascot but the record there (3 runs, never top-3) refutes it - the record wins

The money's biography. Over 40 priced runs, the market has historically been LATE on this horse (blind BSP backing +47%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 0 steams to 22 drifts across the career; the wins came at BSP 2.1, 12.5, 11.3, 3.6, 3.9, 3.6, 3.1, 3.1; and in the whole career this horse has never traded below 2.0 and lost: the flops are honest, beaten early, not late. Peak conviction: 04 May 2023 at Ayr, £165k matched of £313k in the race. The recent money (newest first):

21 Aug 2026	Hamilton Park	drifted 10.3 → 12.0	£18k of £157k	beaten 3rd
20 Jul 2026	Ayr	drifted 3.8 → 4.5	£84k of £257k	won
17 Jul 2026	Hamilton Park	held steady 5.9 → 4.8	£46k of £210k	beaten 3rd

The recent pattern: the money is arriving. Today, live: morning 32 → current 20 (backed).

The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 07-17: finished 3 at BSP 4.8, traded 2.76 in-running; 07-20: finished 1 at BSP 4.5, traded 1.01 in-running; 08-21: finished 3 at BSP 12.0, traded 7.00 in-running.

Where the lenses land. The clock says this horse has come forward; and the money has noticed. These two reads share no data - one is sectional timing, the other pounds matched - and when independent lenses converge, that is a picture, not a coincidence.

The people. The yard, last 14 days: 4 winners from 30 runners (13%) - in form. This jockey with this yard: 353 prior rides, A/E 1.17 - a combination the market underestimates.

The campaign. Runs 7 days after the last start. The wins came 3-27 days after a previous run - today is inside the winning window.

Today's ask. Thirsk on Good: front-runners win at 2.60x chance (301 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.35m. For this horse, today's field-relative read is FOR: run style vs how races develop here. The race shape: 3 early types in a 19-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is one of them, cast in the pressure. The Setup Read counts this horse -2 across its six measured dimensions - set up against, by the count. Drawn 1 of 19 (the early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 3.3 of 20, field average 10.9)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #3, votes for: race-fit (ran <=45d); form (top-3 LTO or recent win); backed since morning; runs the dominant winning style here; proven at trip; proven on the going; fits the winner profile on market position; against: burns early and empties.

The live signals. The clock's pace-adjusted read files the last run WATCH - better than the bare result suggests. In the read's own words: “Third at Hamilton Park (5f) — above the field's pace-adjusted level; in a fast-run race it finished +0.88 SD clear of the field on the clock (raw final 2f -0.10s vs par, so the bare time understates it). Closed below par (FSP 95.9%).”. On the exchange he has been backed since 09:06 - 32 then, 20 at 15:30. Our own ledger holds the receipts from the last start (Hamilton Park, 21 Aug): the figure read hit, the connections read hit, the class read part-hit, the h2h read hit - the same nightly grading that feeds the masthead record.

The watch line. The read turns negative the day the money stays away or the clock era slips - watch the next timed run and the next market.

FORMLAB

ART LOVER (IRE)

Who this is. A 6-run class 4 handicapper. 1 career win, on the record:

28 Aug 2025

Ffos Las

~6f

BSP 3.65

The figures. The FormLab figure today: 92.0, ranked #5 in this field; career best 92. Per-run ratings, last 5: 72 → 87 → 81 → 84 → 92. The best of them (92) was set 11 Jul 2026 at Chester. The latest ratings sit at or near the best - the ability is current, not historical.

The handicap. Today's mark is 86, yet to win off any mark. The mark had been dropping across the last runs (87 → 85), then raised 1 lb to today's 86.

The class. At today's level (class 3): 1 runs, 0 wins, 0 top-3. RISES in grade today (class 4 last time → 3).

The company. The recent fields' median marks: 80, 81, 82. Today's field median is 86 - a 5 lb STRONGER race than the recent company. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 14th, 35th, 10th, 17th, 5th; today's course ranks 11th - within the recent range.

The conditions. At today's distance: 1 win from 6 tries - below market expectation at the trip (0.83). On good ground (today's band): 3 runs, 1 win, 2 top-3.

The clock. Too few earlier timed runs to compare eras - the profile so far: long-striding (7.56m v 7.28 national), a genuine late kick, drops in behind. Run by run (newest first):

11 Jul 2026	Chester	fin 2/6	FSF 70	pos 0.50	fsp 102.1
08 Oct 2025	Kempton Park	fin 7/9	FSF 55	pos 0.67	fsp 104.9
12 Sep 2025	Doncaster	fin 8/15	FSF 55	pos 1.00	fsp 98.2
28 Aug 2025	Ffos Las	fin 1/10	FSF 62	pos 0.30	fsp 104.7
28 Jul 2025	Windsor	fin 2/9	FSF 55	pos 0.44	fsp 103.5
31 May 2025	York	fin 9/11	FSF 44	pos 1.00	fsp 99.0

The mechanism (career read). No stride record at this course yet, so the career speaks: 7.59m a stride over 6 measured runs against 7.34m at this LONG-stride track - the action matches the track's extreme. [P96] tested this cell over 144,801 runs: fully priced by the market. It explains; it never tips.

The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: Ascot, Ayr, Carlisle, Doncaster. Reads against: Chester, Epsom Downs, Lingfield Park

The money's biography. Over 6 priced runs, the market has historically over-loved this horse (blind BSP backing -40%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 0 steams to 4 drifts across the career; the win came at BSP 3.6; and in the whole career this horse has never traded below 2.0 and lost: the flops are honest, beaten early, not late. Peak conviction: 28 Jul 2025 at Windsor, £69k matched of £235k in the race. The recent money (newest first):

11 Jul 2026	Chester	drifted 4.9 → 6.6	£19k of £159k	beaten 2nd
08 Oct 2025	Kempton Park	drifted 4.5 → 5.3	£44k of £163k	beaten 7th
12 Sep 2025	Doncaster	drifted 6.0 → 7.8	£52k of £361k	beaten 8th

The recent pattern: the money has left. Today, live: morning 19.5 → current 18.5 (steady).

The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 09-12: finished 8 at BSP 7.8, traded 5.00 in-running; 10-08: finished 7 at BSP 5.3, traded 8.20 in-running; 07-11: finished 2 at BSP 6.6, traded 4.00 in-running.

The people. The yard, last 14 days: 8 winners from 45 runners (18%) - in form. This jockey with this yard: 543 prior rides, A/E 1.10 - a fair-priced pairing.

The campaign. Runs 48 days after the last start.

Today's ask. Thirsk on Good: front-runners win at 2.60x chance (301 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.35m. For this horse, the fit engine reads today neutral on every dimension - honestly, it has nothing to say; the record and the market carry this one. The race shape: 3 early types in a 19-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is not among them - the collapse, if it comes, is the opportunity. The Setup Read counts this horse +1 across its six measured dimensions - on the right side of how the race sets up. Drawn 9 of 19 (the early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 3.3 of 20, field average 10.9)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #10, votes for: form (top-3 LTO or recent win); top-2 speed vs its fields; proven on the going; fits the winner profile on market position; against: habitually slow away.

The live signals. The handicapper dropped him 1lb in this week's revisions (87 to 86). The clock's pace-adjusted read files the last run WATCH - better than the bare result suggests. In the read's own words: “Runner-up at Chester (6f) — above the field's pace-adjusted level; its closing 2f was +0.25s inside the ches/C4/GOOD par. Closed around par (FSP 102.1%).”. On the exchange he has been backed since 09:06 - 19.5 then, 18.5 at 15:30.

The watch line. A mixed page - the next timed run decides which story this becomes.

FORMLAB

WOODSTOCK

Who this is. A 39-run class 4 handicapper. 6 career wins, each on the record (newest first):

15 Aug 2026	Ripon	~6f	BSP 7.38	off 76
16 Aug 2024	Newbury	~7f	BSP 19.00	off 82
04 Jul 2024	Newbury	~7f	BSP 6.19	off 80
04 Apr 2024	Wolverhampton	~7f	BSP 6.00	off 77
15 Mar 2023	Kempton Park	~8f	BSP 2.15
25 Feb 2023	Chelmsford City	~8f	BSP 1.72

The mark has slid from 80 to 76 - the handicapper's own verdict on the arc of this career. The recent core is turf: 17 of the last 20 runs.

The figures. The FormLab figure today: 89.0, ranked #7 in this field; career best 92. Per-run ratings, last 5: 72 → 81 → 86 → 84 → 89. The best of them (92) was set 16 Aug 2024 at Newbury.

The handicap. Today's mark is 81 - 5 lb HIGHER than the 76 it last won off; the handicapper still holds the form hostage. The winning marks on record: 77, 80, 82, 76 - today's 81 sits inside that band. The mark: 76, then raised 5 lb for the latest win to today's 81.

The class. At today's level (class 3): 10 runs, 0 wins, 3 top-3. In stronger company (class 2-2): 1 runs, 0 wins, 0 top-3. RISES in grade today (class 4 last time → 3).

The company. The recent fields' median marks: 77, 83, 75, 84, 76. Today's field median is 86 - a 9 lb STRONGER race than the recent company. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 11th, 33rd, 5th, 11th, 13th; today's course ranks 11th - within the recent range.

The conditions. At today's distance: 4 wins from 33 tries - beats market expectation at the trip (1.21). On good ground (today's band): 14 runs, 2 wins, 5 top-3.

The clock. A stable profile, no era shift: long-striding (7.60m v 7.28 national), spends early and doesn't finish, races midfield. Run by run (newest first):

15 Aug 2026	Ripon	fin 1/20	FSF 67	pos 0.50	fsp 99.4
01 Aug 2026	Thirsk	fin 4/15	FSF 73	pos 0.33	fsp 101.2
25 Jul 2026	Chester	fin 2/8	FSF 65	pos 0.38	fsp 99.6 (TF)
15 Jul 2026	Catterick Brid	fin 2/4	FSF 66	pos 0.75	fsp 99.7
16 Jun 2026	Thirsk	fin 6/10	FSF 68	pos 0.50	fsp 100.8
27 May 2026	Beverley	fin 4/11	FSF 71	pos 0.36	fsp 95.0

The venue. 6 previous tries at today's course: 3-6-7-3-6-4 - the record here is mixed, whatever the profile says.

The mechanism. At this course this horse strides 7.39m on average - AT or ABOVE the course's own winning average of 7.35m. The track's shape works with this action, and the stride data shows it directly.

The money's biography. Over 39 priced runs, the career is priced about right (blind BSP +7%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 0 steams to 13 drifts across the career; the wins came at BSP 1.7, 2.1, 6.0, 6.2, 19.0, 7.4; all 6 traded 1.01 in-running - when the blow lands it is decisive; caught from a winning position 2 times - a teaser at the finish. Peak conviction: 15 Mar 2023 at Kempton Park, £281k matched of £434k in the race. The recent money (newest first):

15 Aug 2026	Ripon	held steady 10.6 → 7.4	£29k of £247k	won
01 Aug 2026	Thirsk	held steady 18.8 → 14.0	£12k of £271k	beaten 4th
25 Jul 2026	Chester	held steady 6.3 → 5.4	£30k of £186k	beaten 2nd

The recent money pattern is quiet. Today, live: morning 15 → current 17 (drifting).

The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 07-25: finished 2 at BSP 5.4, traded 1.90 in-running; 08-01: finished 4 at BSP 14.0, traded 180.00 in-running; 08-15: finished 1 at BSP 7.4, traded 1.01 in-running.

The form, reconciled. Every timed win came from off the pace.

The people. The yard, last 14 days: 2 winners from 26 runners (8%) - quiet. Headgear goes ON today (v) - a first-time or returning fit, and the record will judge it. A validated yard angle fires - the money is drifting against this one today. This yard in that spot: 2024-25: 28/385 (A/E 1.31); 2026: 7/116 (A/E 1.06) - a spot where this yard beats the market.

The campaign. Runs 13 days after the last start. The wins came 14-22 days after a previous run - today is OUTSIDE the winning window.

Today's ask. Thirsk on Good: front-runners win at 2.60x chance (301 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.35m. For this horse, today's field-relative read is FOR: finishing profile vs what the course demands. The race shape: 3 early types in a 19-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is not among them - the collapse, if it comes, is the opportunity. The Setup Read counts this horse +2 across its six measured dimensions - on the right side of how the race sets up. Drawn 15 of 19 (the early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 3.3 of 20, field average 10.9)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #11, votes for: race-fit (ran <=45d); form (top-3 LTO or recent win); proven at trip; proven on the going; fits the winner profile on market position; against: steps into much stronger company by the marks; 5lb+ above last winning mark. The profile likes this one more than the count does - that tension IS the read.

The live signals. The handicapper raised him 5lb in this week's revisions (76 to 81) - and the house probe says the market tends to over-pay for exactly this story (sharply-raised runners graded A/E 0.91 next time against 1.10 for controls), so it reads as context, never a coupon. On the exchange he has been drifting since 09:06 - 15 then, 17 at 15:30. Our own ledger holds the receipts from the last start (Ripon, 15 Aug): the figure read part-hit, the class read hit, the connections read hit, the pace read missed - the same nightly grading that feeds the masthead record.

The watch line. The read turns negative the day the money stays away or the clock era slips - watch the next timed run and the next market.

FORMLAB

YES I'M MALI

Who this is. A 28-run class 3 handicapper. 4 career wins, each on the record (newest first):

18 Apr 2026	Thirsk	~6f	BSP 11.00	off 75
23 Nov 2024	Newcastle	~5f	BSP 6.80	off 81
21 Aug 2024	York	~6f	BSP 15.14	off 77
11 Jun 2024	Wetherby	~6f	BSP 4.01

The mark has risen from 77 to 82 - the handicapper's own verdict on the arc of this career. The recent core is turf: 14 of the last 20 runs.

The figures. The FormLab figure today: 87, ranked #8 in this field; career best 92. Per-run ratings, last 5: 47 → 92 → 92 → 84 → 85. The best of them (92) was set 04 Jul 2026 at Newmarket. The latest ratings sit at or near the best - the ability is current, not historical.

The handicap. Today's mark is 82 - 7 lb HIGHER than the 75 it last won off; the handicapper still holds the form hostage. The winning marks on record: 77, 81, 75 - today's 82 sits outside that band.

The class. At today's level (class 3): 3 runs, 0 wins, 0 top-3. In stronger company (class 1-2): 10 runs, 1 win, 2 top-3.

The company. The recent fields' median marks: 81, 78, 74, 88, 82. Today's field median is 86 - a 5 lb STRONGER race than the recent company. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 2nd, 4th, 4th, 2nd, 18th; today's course ranks 11th - within the recent range.

The conditions. At today's distance: 4 wins from 28 tries - beats market expectation at the trip (1.27). On good ground (today's band): 8 runs, 1 win, 2 top-3.

The horse on the clock - and the one replacing it. Two different animals share this form book. The earlier era: early position 0.39 of the field, closing at 97.6%. The recent six: position 0.59, closing at 100.0%. The profile that earned the older form is not the one arriving today. Run by run (newest first):

16 Aug 2026	Pontefract	fin 5/9	FSF 65	pos 0.67	fsp -
25 Jul 2026	York	fin 7/21	FSF 71	pos 0.62	fsp 101.6 (TF)
18 Jul 2026	Newmarket	fin 2/8	FSF 73	pos 0.50	fsp 102.6
04 Jul 2026	Newmarket	fin 2/10	FSF 63	pos 0.20	fsp 102.5
13 Jun 2026	York	fin 19/21	FSF 56	pos 1.00	fsp 95.1
31 May 2026	Thirsk	fin 5/14	FSF 67	pos 0.57	fsp 100.5 (TF)

The venue. 3 previous tries at today's course: 13-1-5 - the record here is mixed, whatever the profile says.

The mechanism. At this course this horse strides 7.69m on average - AT or ABOVE the course's own winning average of 7.35m. The track's shape works with this action, and the stride data shows it directly.

The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: Ascot, Ayr, Carlisle, Chelmsford City. Reads against: none

The money's biography. Over 28 priced runs, the market has historically been LATE on this horse (blind BSP backing +30%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 0 steams to 13 drifts across the career; the wins came at BSP 4.0, 15.1, 6.8, 11.0; all 4 traded 1.01 in-running - when the blow lands it is decisive; and in the whole career this horse has never traded below 2.0 and lost: the flops are honest, beaten early, not late. Peak conviction: 11 Jun 2024 at Wetherby, £91k matched of £190k in the race. The recent money (newest first):

16 Aug 2026	Pontefract	drifted 7.1 → 8.8	£21k of £225k	beaten 5th
25 Jul 2026	York	held steady 36.8 → 30.6	£8k of £366k	beaten 7th
18 Jul 2026	Newmarket	held steady 3.3 → 3.4	£87k of £253k	beaten 2nd

The recent money pattern is quiet. Today, live: morning 14.5 → current 11.5 (backed).

The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 07-18: finished 2 at BSP 3.4, traded 3.00 in-running; 07-25: finished 7 at BSP 30.6, traded 36.00 in-running; 08-16: finished 5 at BSP 8.8, traded 18.50 in-running.

The form, reconciled. The wins have come racing forward AND from off the pace - the winning mode is tactical, not fixed, so a run-style objection is a variable here, never a verdict (the winning runs' own positions say so). The best of the old form (2nd at Newcastle, 17 Jan 2025; 1st at Thirsk, 18 Apr 2026; 2nd at York, 23 May 2026) was earned by the EARLIER profile era - judge it against the horse that earned it, not the one arriving today. If the old numbers return on the clock, the map redraws - that is the thing to watch in the next sectionals.

The people. The yard, last 14 days: 3 winners from 39 runners (8%) - quiet. This jockey with this yard: 908 prior rides, A/E 0.96 - a fair-priced pairing. Headgear comes OFF today (wore v last time).

The campaign. Runs 12 days after the last start. The wins came 19-49 days after a previous run - today is OUTSIDE the winning window.

Today's ask. Thirsk on Good: front-runners win at 2.60x chance (301 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.35m. For this horse, today's field-relative read is FOR: finishing profile vs what the course demands. The race shape: 3 early types in a 19-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is not among them - the collapse, if it comes, is the opportunity. The Setup Read counts this horse +1 across its six measured dimensions - on the right side of how the race sets up. Drawn 8 of 19 (the early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 3.3 of 20, field average 10.9)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #6, votes for: race-fit (ran <=45d); market top-3; backed since morning; energy in the winning band; proven at trip; proven on the going; against: 5lb+ above last winning mark. The profile likes this one more than the count does - that tension IS the read.

The live signals. The handicapper dropped him 1lb in this week's revisions (82 to 81). On the exchange he has been backed since 09:06 - 14.5 then, 11.5 at 15:30. Our own ledger holds the receipts from the last start (Pontefract, 16 Aug): the figure read part-hit, the class read missed, the h2h read hit - the same nightly grading that feeds the masthead record.

The watch line. A mixed page - the next timed run decides which story this becomes.

FORMLAB

STARMADE (IRE)

Who this is. A 7-run class 2 handicapper. 2 career wins, each on the record (newest first):

01 May 2026	Newcastle	~6f	BSP 3.10	off 80
14 Oct 2025	Newcastle	~5f	BSP 2.62

2 of the 2 came at Newcastle - the career has an address. The mark has risen from 80 to 88 - the handicapper's own verdict on the arc of this career.

The figures. The FormLab figure today: 86, ranked #9 in this field; career best 93. Per-run ratings, last 5: 79 → 78 → 93 → 87 → 78. The best of them (93) was set 01 May 2026 at Newcastle. The latest ratings sit at or near the best - the ability is current, not historical.

The handicap. Today's mark is 87 - 7 lb HIGHER than the 80 it last won off; the handicapper still holds the form hostage. The winning marks on record: 80 - today's 87 sits outside that band. The mark had been rising across the last runs (80 → 88), then eased 1 lb to today's 87.

The class. In stronger company (class 2-2): 2 runs, 0 wins, 0 top-3. DROPS in grade today (class 2 last time → 3).

The company. The recent fields' median marks: 75, 76, 95, 91. Today's field median is 86 - a 5 lb WEAKER race than the recent company. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 15th, 34th, 15th, 1st, 4th; today's course ranks 11th - within the recent range.

The conditions. At today's distance: 2 wins from 7 tries - beats market expectation at the trip (1.51). On good ground (today's band): 1 runs, 0 wins, 1 top-3.

The clock. Too few earlier timed runs to compare eras - the profile so far: long-striding (7.53m v 7.28 national), spends early and doesn't finish, races midfield. Run by run (newest first):

19 Jun 2026	Ascot	fin 5/27	FSF 67	pos 0.52	fsp 100.5
01 May 2026	Newcastle	fin 1/8	FSF 59	pos 0.75	fsp 105.0
17 Apr 2026	Bath	fin 3/13	FSF 53	pos 1.00	fsp 96.9
14 Oct 2025	Newcastle	fin 1/8	FSF 57	pos 0.38	fsp 103.5
30 Sep 2025	Ayr	fin 2/8	FSF 59	pos 0.12	fsp 93.6

1 of the last 6 runs carry no sectional coverage - gaps, not zeros.

The mechanism (career read). No stride record at this course yet, so the career speaks: 7.52m a stride over 6 measured runs against 7.34m at this LONG-stride track - the action matches the track's extreme. [P96] tested this cell over 144,801 runs: fully priced by the market. It explains; it never tips.

The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: Ascot, Ayr, Carlisle, Doncaster. Reads against: none

The money's biography. Over 7 priced runs, the career is priced about right (blind BSP -19%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 1 steam to 2 drifts across the career; the wins came at BSP 2.6, 3.1; all 2 traded 1.01 in-running - when the blow lands it is decisive; and in the whole career this horse has never traded below 2.0 and lost: the flops are honest, beaten early, not late. Peak conviction: 17 Apr 2026 at Bath, £95k matched of £248k in the race. The recent money (newest first):

09 Jul 2026	Newmarket	drifted 15.4 → 19.8	£17k of £409k	beaten 10th
19 Jun 2026	Ascot	held steady 16.5 → 12.8	£72k of £1031k	beaten 5th
01 May 2026	Newcastle	held steady 3.4 → 3.1	£88k of £234k	won

The last run's market share (4% of the pool against a 25% norm) is the loudest line on the page: the money left BEFORE the race, and the result proved it right. The recent pattern: the money has left. Today, live: morning 17 → current 15 (backed).

The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 05-01: finished 1 at BSP 3.1, traded 1.01 in-running; 06-19: finished 5 at BSP 12.8, traded 9.20 in-running; 07-09: finished 10 at BSP 19.8, traded 10.00 in-running.

The people. The yard, last 14 days: 2 winners from 18 runners (11%) - quiet. This jockey with this yard: 29 prior rides, A/E 1.46 - a combination the market underestimates.

The campaign. Runs 50 days after the last start. The wins came 15-15 days after a previous run - today is OUTSIDE the winning window.

Today's ask. Thirsk on Good: front-runners win at 2.60x chance (301 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.35m. For this horse, today's field-relative read is FOR: finishing profile vs what the course demands. The race shape: 3 early types in a 19-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is not among them - the collapse, if it comes, is the opportunity. The Setup Read counts this horse +1 across its six measured dimensions - on the right side of how the race sets up. Drawn 17 of 19 (the early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 3.3 of 20, field average 10.9)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #4, votes for: drops in class; form (top-3 LTO or recent win); backed since morning; energy in the winning band; proven at trip; fits the winner profile on market position; meets much weaker company by the marks; against: 5lb+ above last winning mark.

The live signals. On the exchange he has been backed since 09:06 - 17 then, 15 at 15:30.

The watch line. The read turns negative the day the money stays away or the clock era slips - watch the next timed run and the next market.

FORMLAB

WOVEN

Who this is. A 27-run class 4 handicapper. 3 career wins, each on the record (newest first):

09 Oct 2025	Ayr	~6f	BSP 4.54	off 84
28 Sep 2024	Haydock Park	~6f	BSP 22.81	off 84
06 May 2023	Doncaster	~6f	BSP 5.40	off 83

The recent core is turf: 20 of the last 20 runs.

The figures. The FormLab figure today: 86, ranked #9 in this field; career best 97. Per-run ratings, last 5: 68 → 92 → 79 → 95 → 84. The best of them (97) was set 09 Oct 2025 at Ayr. The latest ratings sit at or near the best - the ability is current, not historical.

The handicap. Today's mark is 84 - exactly the mark of the last win. The winning marks on record: 83, 84, 84 - today's 84 sits inside that band. The mark had been dropping across the last runs (87 → 85), then eased 1 lb to today's 84.

The class. At today's level (class 3): 16 runs, 2 wins, 4 top-3. In stronger company (class 2-2): 8 runs, 0 wins, 1 top-3 - the level matters. RISES in grade today (class 4 last time → 3).

The company. The recent fields' median marks: 91, 86, 93, 81, 79. Today's field median is 86 - much the same level of company as of late. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 10th, 10th, 2nd, 2nd, 12th; today's course ranks 11th - within the recent range.

The conditions. At today's distance: 3 wins from 27 tries - beats market expectation at the trip (1.43). On good ground (today's band): 5 runs, 0 wins, 1 top-3.

The clock. A stable profile, no era shift: spends early and doesn't finish, drops in behind. Run by run (newest first):

06 Jul 2026	Ayr	fin 9/17	FSF 61	pos 0.65	fsp 96.0
13 Jun 2026	York	fin 2/21	FSF 73	pos 0.67	fsp 98.6
13 May 2026	York	fin 7/22	FSF 70	pos 0.95	fsp 96.4
29 Mar 2026	Doncaster	fin 4/19	FSF 63	pos 0.95	fsp 101.2
08 Nov 2025	Doncaster	fin 12/22	FSF 53	pos 0.82	fsp 96.1
24 Oct 2025	Newbury	fin 5/18	FSF 61	pos 0.78	fsp 95.0

The venue. 2 previous tries at today's course: 4-12 - the record here leans against, whatever the profile says.

The mechanism (career read). No stride record at this course yet, so the career speaks: 7.18m a stride over 21 measured runs against 7.34m at this LONG-stride track - a SHORT-striding horse on a galloping track - the action argues with the geometry. [P96] tested this cell over 144,801 runs: fully priced by the market. It explains; it never tips.

The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: no strong home - the least-against are Wetherby. Reads against: Ascot, Ayr, Bath, Beverley. Today sits in the AGAINST set.

The money's biography. Over 27 priced runs, the market has historically been LATE on this horse (blind BSP backing +19%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 0 steams to 12 drifts across the career; the wins came at BSP 5.4, 22.8, 4.5; all 3 traded 1.01 in-running - when the blow lands it is decisive. Peak conviction: 23 May 2023 at Ayr, £58k matched of £254k in the race. The recent money (newest first):

06 Jul 2026	Ayr	held steady 13.4 → 11.6	£16k of £208k	beaten 9th
13 Jun 2026	York	held steady 15.3 → 16.3	£15k of £261k	beaten 2nd
13 May 2026	York	drifted 62.7 → 111.6	£5k of £493k	beaten 7th

The recent pattern: the money is arriving. Today, live: morning 20 → current 30 (drifting).

The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 05-13: finished 7 at BSP 111.6, traded 55.00 in-running; 06-13: finished 2 at BSP 16.3, traded 14.50 in-running; 07-06: finished 9 at BSP 11.6, traded 11.00 in-running.

The form, reconciled. Every timed win came from off the pace.

The people. The yard, last 14 days: 4 winners from 25 runners (16%) - in form. This jockey with this yard: 798 prior rides, A/E 0.83 - a combination the market over-trusts. A validated yard angle fires - the money is drifting against this one today. This yard in that spot: 2024-25: 14/335 (A/E 0.65); 2026: 8/92 (A/E 1.36) - but 2026 has flipped that weakness the other way - the old caution is stale.

The campaign. Runs 53 days after the last start. The wins came 13-81 days after a previous run - today is inside the winning window.

Today's ask. Thirsk on Good: front-runners win at 2.60x chance (301 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.35m. For this horse, today's field-relative read is AGAINST: finishing profile vs what the course demands; run style vs how races develop here. The race shape: 3 early types in a 19-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is not among them - the collapse, if it comes, is the opportunity. The Setup Read counts this horse +1 across its six measured dimensions - on the right side of how the race sets up. Drawn 7 of 19 (the early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 3.3 of 20, field average 10.9)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #17, votes for: top-2 late speed today; proven at trip; FormLab watch flag; fits the winner profile on market position; ahead of rivals met on collateral form; against: steps into much stronger company by the marks; habitually slow away; burns early and empties.

The live signals. On the exchange he has been drifting since 09:06 - 20 then, 30 at 15:30.

The watch line. A mixed page - the next timed run decides which story this becomes.

FORMLAB

KATS BOB

Who this is. A 45-run class 4 handicapper. 7 career wins, each on the record (newest first):

14 Jun 2025	York	~6f	BSP 24.57	off 80
22 Apr 2025	Thirsk	~6f	BSP 6.61	off 75
28 Mar 2025	Southwell	~6f	BSP 6.91	off 69
07 Mar 2025	Newcastle	~6f	BSP 3.97	off 65
20 Feb 2025	Newcastle	~6f	BSP 5.60	off 63
09 Jan 2024	Southwell	~6f	BSP 6.96	off 67
31 Jul 2023	Ayr	~6f	BSP 2.93	off 64

The mark has risen from 68 to 77 - the handicapper's own verdict on the arc of this career. The recent core is turf: 20 of the last 20 runs.

The figures. The FormLab figure today: 84.3, ranked #11 in this field; career best 88. Per-run ratings, last 5: 43 → 69 → 87 → 86 → 80. The best of them (88) was set 14 Jun 2025 at York. The latest ratings sit at or near the best - the ability is current, not historical.

The handicap. Today's mark is 76 - 4 lb BELOW the 80 it last won off; the handicapper has relented, the question is whether the horse has anything left to relent for. The winning marks on record: 64, 67, 63, 65, 69, 75, 80 - today's 76 sits inside that band. The mark: 77, then eased 1 lb to today's 76.

The class. At today's level (class 3): 2 runs, 0 wins, 0 top-3. In stronger company (class 2-2): 3 runs, 0 wins, 0 top-3. RISES in grade today (class 4 last time → 3).

The company. The recent fields' median marks: 81, 79, 77, 77, 76. Today's field median is 86 - a 9 lb STRONGER race than the recent company. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 2nd, 10th, 2nd, 31st, 13th; today's course ranks 11th - within the recent range.

The conditions. At today's distance: 7 wins from 45 tries - beats market expectation at the trip (1.47). On good ground (today's band): 12 runs, 1 win, 4 top-3. The record reads clearly better on soft-side ground - today's band is not the favourite.

The horse on the clock - and the one replacing it. Two different animals share this form book. The earlier era: early position 0.11 of the field, closing at 95.2%. The recent six: position 0.28, closing at 97.8%. The profile that earned the older form is not the one arriving today. Run by run (newest first):

15 Aug 2026	Ripon	fin 14/20	FSF 62	pos 0.20	fsp 98.1
29 Jul 2026	Redcar	fin 2/7	FSF 68	pos 0.29	fsp 98.1
11 Jul 2026	York	fin 2/19	FSF 74	pos 0.05	fsp 97.4
26 Jun 2026	Doncaster	fin 7/8	FSF 57	pos 0.12	fsp 98.5
13 Jun 2026	York	fin 20/21	FSF 56	pos 0.76	fsp 95.2
05 Jun 2026	Doncaster	fin 4/13	FSF 63	pos 0.23	fsp 99.5

The venue. 6 previous tries at today's course: 8-9-9-1-8-4 - the record here is mixed, whatever the profile says.

The mechanism. At this course this horse strides 7.79m on average - AT or ABOVE the course's own winning average of 7.35m. The track's shape works with this action, and the stride data shows it directly.

The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: Ascot, Ayr, Carlisle, Chelmsford City. Reads against: Goodwood. Arbitration: the map likes Doncaster but the record there (3 runs, never top-3) refutes it - the record wins

The money's biography. Over 45 priced runs, the market has historically been LATE on this horse (blind BSP backing +26%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 1 steam to 19 drifts across the career; the wins came at BSP 2.9, 7.0, 5.6, 4.0, 6.9, 6.6, 24.6; all 7 traded 1.01 in-running - when the blow lands it is decisive. Peak conviction: 31 Jul 2023 at Ayr, £132k matched of £421k in the race. The recent money (newest first):

15 Aug 2026	Ripon	held steady 16.2 → 16.0	£14k of £247k	beaten 14th
29 Jul 2026	Redcar	held steady 5.0 → 4.2	£29k of £143k	beaten 2nd
11 Jul 2026	York	drifted 27.8 → 55.0	£7k of £239k	beaten 2nd

The recent money pattern is quiet. Today, live: morning 40 → current 48 (drifting).

The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 07-11: finished 2 at BSP 55.0, traded 2.02 in-running; 07-29: finished 2 at BSP 4.2, traded 3.40 in-running; 08-15: finished 14 at BSP 16.0, traded 14.00 in-running.

The form, reconciled. The wins have come racing forward AND from off the pace - the winning mode is tactical, not fixed, so a run-style objection is a variable here, never a verdict (the winning runs' own positions say so). The best of the old form (1st at Thirsk, 22 Apr 2025; 1st at York, 14 Jun 2025; 2nd at Catterick Bridge, 08 Apr 2026) was earned by the EARLIER profile era - judge it against the horse that earned it, not the one arriving today. If the old numbers return on the clock, the map redraws - that is the thing to watch in the next sectionals.

The people. The yard, last 14 days: 2 winners from 26 runners (8%) - quiet. A validated yard angle fires - the money is drifting against this one today. This yard in that spot: 2024-25: 28/385 (A/E 1.31); 2026: 7/116 (A/E 1.06) - a spot where this yard beats the market.

The campaign. Runs 13 days after the last start. The wins came 8-125 days after a previous run - today is inside the winning window.

Today's ask. Thirsk on Good: front-runners win at 2.60x chance (301 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.35m. For this horse, today's field-relative read is FOR: run style vs how races develop here. The race shape: 3 early types in a 19-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is one of them, cast in the pressure. The Setup Read counts this horse -2 across its six measured dimensions - set up against, by the count. Drawn 5 of 19 (the early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 3.3 of 20, field average 10.9)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #12, votes for: race-fit (ran <=45d); quickest early type; energy in the winning band; proven at trip; fits the winner profile on market position; against: behind rivals met on collateral form; steps into much stronger company by the marks. The profile likes this one more than the count does - that tension IS the read.

The live signals. The handicapper dropped him 1lb in this week's revisions (77 to 76). On the exchange he has been drifting since 09:06 - 40 then, 48 at 15:30. Our own ledger holds the receipts from the last start (Ripon, 15 Aug): the figure read missed, the energy read part-hit, the connections read missed, the pace read part-hit - the same nightly grading that feeds the masthead record.

The watch line. A mixed page - the next timed run decides which story this becomes.

FORMLAB

COUNTY CARLOW (IRE)

Who this is. A 5-run class 4 handicapper. 1 career win, on the record:

03 May 2026

Sligo

~6f

BSP 1.96

The figures. The FormLab figure today: 81.3, ranked #12 in this field; career best 86. Per-run ratings, last 5: 76 → 72 → 83 → 86 → 75. The best of them (86) was set 05 Jun 2026 at Fairyhouse. The latest ratings sit at or near the best - the ability is current, not historical.

The handicap. Today's mark is 83, yet to win off any mark. The mark: 85, then eased 2 lb to today's 83.

The class. RISES in grade today (class 4 last time → 3).

The company. The recent fields' median marks: 81. Today's field median is 86 - a 5 lb STRONGER race than the recent company. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 10th; today's course ranks 11th - the weakest-ranked stop of the recent campaign, easier company than the bare class suggests.

The conditions. At today's distance: 1 win from 4 tries - below market expectation at the trip (0.8). On good ground (today's band): 1 runs, 0 wins, 1 top-3.

The clock. Fewer than three timed runs on the sectional record - no profile can honestly be claimed yet.

The money. Too few priced runs for a market biography.

The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 05-03: finished 1 at BSP 2.0, traded 1.01 in-running; 06-05: finished 2 at BSP 4.4, traded 3.50 in-running; 08-15: finished 7 at BSP 34.5, traded 38.00 in-running.

The people. The yard, last 14 days: 1 winners from 7 runners (14%) - in form. This jockey with this yard: 184 prior rides, A/E 1.41 - a combination the market underestimates. A validated yard angle fires - a jockey change from last time. This yard in that spot: 2024-25: 20/153 (A/E 1.21); 2026: 12/74 (A/E 1.81) - a spot where this yard beats the market. A validated yard angle fires - the money is drifting against this one today. This yard in that spot: 2024-25: 3/97 (A/E 0.68); 2026: 4/63 (A/E 1.29) - but 2026 has flipped that weakness the other way - the old caution is stale.

The campaign. Runs 13 days after the last start.

Today's ask. Thirsk on Good: front-runners win at 2.60x chance (301 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.35m. For this horse, no fit read (too few timed runs against this field). The race shape: 3 early types in a 19-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is not among them - the collapse, if it comes, is the opportunity. The Setup Read counts this horse +3 across its six measured dimensions - on the right side of how the race sets up. Drawn 18 of 19 (the early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 3.3 of 20, field average 10.9)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #13, votes for: race-fit (ran <=45d); form (top-3 LTO or recent win); energy in the winning band; fits the winner profile on market position; against: steps into much stronger company by the marks.

The live signals. The handicapper dropped him 2lb in this week's revisions (85 to 83). On the exchange he has been drifting since 09:06 - 80 then, 120 at 15:30. Our own ledger holds the receipts from the last start (Doncaster, 15 Aug): the figure read missed, the editorial read missed, the connections read missed - the same nightly grading that feeds the masthead record.

The watch line. A mixed page - the next timed run decides which story this becomes.

FORMLAB

TOPWARRIOR

Who this is. A 11-run class 2 handicapper. 2 career wins, each on the record (newest first):

24 Oct 2025	Newbury	~6f	BSP 17.74	off 85
21 Apr 2025	Kempton Park	~6f	BSP 23.00

The mark has risen from 85 to 92 - the handicapper's own verdict on the arc of this career. The recent core is turf: 8 of the last 11 runs.

The figures. The FormLab figure today: 79.0, ranked #13 in this field; career best 105. Per-run ratings, last 5: 92 → 46 → 105 → 49 → 79. The best of them (105) was set 24 Oct 2025 at Newbury. The latest ratings sit at or near the best - the ability is current, not historical.

The handicap. Today's mark is 90 - 5 lb HIGHER than the 85 it last won off; the handicapper still holds the form hostage. The winning marks on record: 85 - today's 90 sits outside that band. The mark had been rising across the last runs (86 → 92), then eased 2 lb to today's 90.

The class. At today's level (class 3): 2 runs, 1 win, 1 top-3. In stronger company (class 2-2): 2 runs, 0 wins, 0 top-3 - the level matters. DROPS in grade today (class 2 last time → 3).

The company. The recent fields' median marks: 86, 84, 84, 92, 98. Today's field median is 86 - much the same level of company as of late. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 3rd, 8th, 7th, 6th, 15th; today's course ranks 11th - within the recent range.

The conditions. At today's distance: 2 wins from 11 tries - beats market expectation at the trip (1.26). On good ground (today's band): 2 runs, 0 wins, 0 top-3. The record reads clearly better on soft-side ground - today's band is not the favourite.

The horse on the clock - and the one replacing it. Two different animals share this form book. The earlier era: early position 0.50 of the field, closing at 100.3%. The recent six: position 0.33, closing at 93.2%. The profile that earned the older form is not the one arriving today. Run by run (newest first):

27 Jun 2026	Newcastle	fin 12/14	FSF 61	pos 0.29	fsp 95.0
06 Jun 2026	Epsom Downs	fin 14/15	FSF 57	pos 0.53	fsp 89.9
24 Oct 2025	Newbury	fin 1/18	FSF 70	pos 0.17	fsp 95.4
27 Sep 2025	Haydock Park	fin 12/12	FSF 54	pos 0.33	fsp 92.4
02 Sep 2025	Goodwood	fin 2/6	FSF 66	pos -	fsp 100.8

1 of the last 6 runs carry no sectional coverage - gaps, not zeros.

The mechanism (career read). No stride record at this course yet, so the career speaks: 7.24m a stride over 9 measured runs against 7.34m at this LONG-stride track - the action FITS - stride and track are built for each other. [P96] tested this cell over 144,801 runs: fully priced by the market. It explains; it never tips.

The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: no strong home - the least-against are Kempton Park (where the wins live). Reads against: Ascot, Ayr, Bath, Beverley. Today sits in the AGAINST set.

The money's biography. Over 11 priced runs, the market has historically been LATE on this horse (blind BSP backing +263%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 0 steams to 8 drifts across the career; the wins came at BSP 23.0, 17.7; all 2 traded 1.01 in-running - when the blow lands it is decisive; and in the whole career this horse has never traded below 2.0 and lost: the flops are honest, beaten early, not late. Peak conviction: 12 May 2025 at Windsor, £123k matched of £236k in the race. The recent money (newest first):

27 Jun 2026	Newcastle	drifted 49.2 → 68.8	£6k of £383k	beaten 12th
06 Jun 2026	Epsom Downs	drifted 14.2 → 19.4	£18k of £519k	beaten 14th
24 Oct 2025	Newbury	held steady 19.2 → 17.7	£13k of £212k	won

The last run's market share (1% of the pool against a 19% norm) is the loudest line on the page: the money left BEFORE the race, and the result proved it right. The recent pattern: the money has left. Today, live: morning 50 → current 48 (steady).

The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 10-24: finished 1 at BSP 17.7, traded 1.01 in-running; 06-06: finished 14 at BSP 19.4, traded 100.00 in-running; 06-27: finished 12 at BSP 68.8, traded 50.00 in-running.

The eye-catcher caution. Last time this horse the comment reads 'short of room' - the visible hard-luck profile. Measured on 220,000+ runs ([P88]/[P89], both windows): this profile is systematically OVERBET next start (~4pp A/E deficit; excuse + narrowly beaten is worst). The story flatters; the price usually does not. Context only.

Where the lenses land. The clock says this horse has gone backward; the money says the same. These two reads share no data - one is sectional timing, the other pounds matched - and when independent lenses converge, that is a picture, not a coincidence.

The form, reconciled. Every timed win came racing forward - forwardness is part of the winning recipe. The best of the old form (1st at Kempton Park, 21 Apr 2025; 2nd at Windsor, 12 May 2025; 2nd at Musselburgh, 07 Jun 2025) was earned by the EARLIER profile era - judge it against the horse that earned it, not the one arriving today. If the old numbers return on the clock, the map redraws - that is the thing to watch in the next sectionals.

The people. The yard, last 14 days: 3 winners from 30 runners (10%) - quiet.

The campaign. Runs 62 days after the last start. The wins came 28-38 days after a previous run - today is OUTSIDE the winning window.

Today's ask. Thirsk on Good: front-runners win at 2.60x chance (301 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.35m. For this horse, today's field-relative read is AGAINST: finishing profile vs what the course demands. The race shape: 3 early types in a 19-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is not among them - the collapse, if it comes, is the opportunity. The Setup Read counts this horse +1 across its six measured dimensions - on the right side of how the race sets up. Drawn 11 of 19 (the early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 3.3 of 20, field average 10.9)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #14, votes for: drops in class; form (top-3 LTO or recent win); proven at trip; fits the winner profile on market position; meets much weaker company by the marks; against: burns early and empties; 5lb+ above last winning mark.

The live signals. On the exchange he has been steady since 09:06 - 50 then, 48 at 15:30.

The watch line. The read flips positive the day two things reappear together: the old numbers on the clock, and the money arriving - at a track the map likes. Neither was present today.

FORMLAB

MANILA SCOUSE

Who this is. A 38-run class 2 handicapper. 4 career wins, each on the record (newest first):

06 Jul 2026	Ayr	~6f	BSP 10.48	off 79
02 Jul 2025	Thirsk	~6f	BSP 19.01	off 79
06 Jun 2024	Hamilton Park	~6f	BSP 24.00	off 79
06 Aug 2023	Haydock Park	~5f	BSP 3.10	off 81

The mark has risen from 77 to 85 - the handicapper's own verdict on the arc of this career. The recent core is turf: 19 of the last 20 runs.

The figures. The FormLab figure today: 78.3, ranked #14 in this field; career best 92. Per-run ratings, last 5: 85 → 89 → 78 → 92 → 65. The best of them (92) was set 06 Aug 2023 at Haydock Park. The latest ratings sit at or near the best - the ability is current, not historical.

The handicap. Today's mark is 83 - 4 lb HIGHER than the 79 it last won off; the handicapper still holds the form hostage. The winning marks on record: 81, 79, 79, 79 - today's 83 sits outside that band. The mark had been rising across the last runs (78 → 85), then eased 2 lb to today's 83.

The class. At today's level (class 3): 9 runs, 1 win, 5 top-3. In stronger company (class 2-2): 20 runs, 1 win, 3 top-3. DROPS in grade today (class 2 last time → 3).

The company. The recent fields' median marks: 91, 81, 79, 87, 89. Today's field median is 86 - much the same level of company as of late. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 11th, 2nd, 12th, 16th, 13th; today's course ranks 11th - within the recent range.

The conditions. At today's distance: 4 wins from 38 tries - beats market expectation at the trip (1.08). On good ground (today's band): 20 runs, 1 win, 6 top-3. The record reads clearly better on soft-side ground - today's band is not the favourite.

The horse on the clock - and the one replacing it. Two different animals share this form book. The earlier era: early position 0.21 of the field, closing at 95.8%. The recent six: position 0.42, closing at 93.2%. The profile that earned the older form is not the one arriving today. Run by run (newest first):

15 Aug 2026	Ripon	fin 14/14	FSF 25	pos 0.29	fsp 86.2
01 Aug 2026	Hamilton Park	fin 10/11	FSF 59	pos 0.73	fsp -
06 Jul 2026	Ayr	fin 1/17	FSF 67	pos 0.29	fsp 96.8
13 Jun 2026	York	fin 6/21	FSF 68	pos 0.38	fsp 96.5
31 May 2026	Thirsk	fin 2/14	FSF 70	pos 0.29	fsp 100.5 (TF)
17 May 2026	Hamilton Park	fin 3/13	FSF 65	pos 0.54	fsp 100.5 (TF)

The venue. 4 previous tries at today's course: 2-1-7-2 - the record here is mixed, whatever the profile says.

The mechanism. At this course this horse strides 7.56m on average - AT or ABOVE the course's own winning average of 7.35m. The track's shape works with this action, and the stride data shows it directly.

The money's biography. Over 38 priced runs, the market has historically been LATE on this horse (blind BSP backing +46%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 0 steams to 18 drifts across the career; the wins came at BSP 3.1, 24.0, 19.0, 10.5; all 4 traded 1.01 in-running - when the blow lands it is decisive; caught from a winning position 2 times - a teaser at the finish. Peak conviction: 25 Jun 2023 at Pontefract, £133k matched of £390k in the race. The recent money (newest first):

15 Aug 2026	Ripon	drifted 50.6 → 71.4	£6k of £352k	beaten 14th
01 Aug 2026	Hamilton Park	held steady 13.4 → 9.0	£11k of £193k	beaten 10th
06 Jul 2026	Ayr	held steady 14.0 → 10.5	£13k of £208k	won

The last run's market share (2% of the pool against a 6% norm) is the loudest line on the page: the money left BEFORE the race, and the result proved it right. The recent pattern: the money has left. Today, live: morning 42 → current 48 (drifting).

The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 07-06: finished 1 at BSP 10.5, traded 1.01 in-running; 08-01: finished 10 at BSP 9.0, traded 470.00 in-running; 08-15: finished 14 at BSP 71.4, traded 42.00 in-running.

The eye-catcher caution. Last time this horse the comment reads 'stumbled' - the visible hard-luck profile. Measured on 220,000+ runs ([P88]/[P89], both windows): this profile is systematically OVERBET next start (~4pp A/E deficit; excuse + narrowly beaten is worst). The story flatters; the price usually does not. Context only.

The form, reconciled. Every timed win came racing forward - forwardness is part of the winning recipe. The best of the old form (1st at Hamilton Park, 06 Jun 2024; 2nd at Thirsk, 03 Jul 2024; 1st at Thirsk, 02 Jul 2025) was earned by the EARLIER profile era - judge it against the horse that earned it, not the one arriving today. If the old numbers return on the clock, the map redraws - that is the thing to watch in the next sectionals.

The people. The yard, last 14 days: 5 winners from 86 runners (6%) - quiet. This jockey with this yard: 1748 prior rides, A/E 0.84 - a combination the market over-trusts. Headgear goes ON today (t) - a first-time or returning fit, and the record will judge it.

The campaign. Runs 13 days after the last start. The wins came 8-24 days after a previous run - today is inside the winning window.

Today's ask. Thirsk on Good: front-runners win at 2.60x chance (301 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.35m. For this horse, today's field-relative read is AGAINST: finishing profile vs what the course demands. The race shape: 3 early types in a 19-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is not among them - the collapse, if it comes, is the opportunity. The Setup Read counts this horse +1 across its six measured dimensions - on the right side of how the race sets up. Drawn 10 of 19 (the early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 3.3 of 20, field average 10.9)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #15, votes for: drops in class; race-fit (ran <=45d); form (top-3 LTO or recent win); fits the winner profile on market position; against: burns early and empties.

The live signals. The handicapper dropped him 1lb in this week's revisions (84 to 83). On the exchange he has been drifting since 09:06 - 42 then, 48 at 15:30. Our own ledger holds the receipts from the last start (Ripon, 15 Aug): the figure read hit, the energy read missed, the class read hit, the pace read part-hit - the same nightly grading that feeds the masthead record.

The watch line. The read flips positive the day two things reappear together: the old numbers on the clock, and the money arriving - at a track the map likes. Neither was present today.

FORMLAB

NOVELLO LAD

Who this is. A 24-run class 2 handicapper. 5 career wins, each on the record (newest first):

05 Jun 2026	Doncaster	~6f	BSP 7.37	off 85
16 May 2026	Doncaster	~6f	BSP 6.60	off 77
06 Aug 2025	Pontefract	~6f	BSP 5.90	off 75
18 Jul 2025	Nottingham	~6f	BSP 2.14	off 68
28 Jun 2024	Doncaster	~6f	BSP 2.54	off 63

3 of the 5 came at Doncaster - the career has an address. The mark has risen from 64 to 89 - the handicapper's own verdict on the arc of this career. The recent core is turf: 20 of the last 20 runs.

The figures. The FormLab figure today: 77.7, ranked #15 in this field; career best 98. Per-run ratings, last 5: 81 → 96 → 98 → 62 → 73. The best of them (98) was set 05 Jun 2026 at Doncaster. The latest ratings sit at or near the best - the ability is current, not historical.

The handicap. Today's mark is 88 - 3 lb HIGHER than the 85 it last won off; the handicapper still holds the form hostage. The winning marks on record: 63, 68, 75, 77, 85 - today's 88 sits outside that band. The mark had been rising across the last runs (78 → 89), then eased 1 lb to today's 88.

The class. At today's level (class 3): 2 runs, 0 wins, 0 top-3. In stronger company (class 2-2): 1 runs, 0 wins, 0 top-3. DROPS in grade today (class 2 last time → 3).

The company. The recent fields' median marks: 77, 80, 79, 84, 88. Today's field median is 86 - a 6 lb STRONGER race than the recent company. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 28th, 10th, 10th, 11th, 2nd; today's course ranks 11th - within the recent range.

The conditions. At today's distance: 5 wins from 24 tries - beats market expectation at the trip (1.18). On good ground (today's band): 3 runs, 2 wins, 3 top-3.

The horse on the clock - and the one replacing it. Two different animals share this form book. The earlier era: early position 0.73 of the field, closing at 102.2%. The recent six: position 0.62, closing at 98.6%. The profile that earned the older form is not the one arriving today. Run by run (newest first):

25 Jul 2026	York	fin 17/21	FSF 63	pos 0.81	fsp -
01 Jul 2026	Thirsk	fin 8/10	FSF 56	pos 0.60	fsp 96.3
05 Jun 2026	Doncaster	fin 1/13	FSF 66	pos 0.38	fsp 100.7
16 May 2026	Doncaster	fin 1/12	FSF 69	pos 0.25	fsp 100.3
23 Apr 2026	Beverley	fin 3/9	FSF 66	pos 0.89	fsp 99.5
06 Oct 2025	Pontefract	fin 9/10	FSF 54	pos 0.80	fsp 96.0

The venue. 3 previous tries at today's course: 3-3-8 - the record here is mixed, whatever the profile says.

The mechanism. At this course this horse strides 7.83m on average - AT or ABOVE the course's own winning average of 7.35m. The track's shape works with this action, and the stride data shows it directly.

The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: Kempton Park, Wolverhampton. Reads against: Bath, Beverley, Brighton, Catterick Bridge. Today sits in the AGAINST set.

The money's biography. Over 24 priced runs, the career is priced about right (blind BSP +1%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 1 steam to 7 drifts across the career; the wins came at BSP 2.5, 2.1, 5.9, 6.6, 7.4; all 5 traded 1.01 in-running - when the blow lands it is decisive; and in the whole career this horse has never traded below 2.0 and lost: the flops are honest, beaten early, not late. Peak conviction: 28 Jun 2024 at Doncaster, £131k matched of £231k in the race. The recent money (newest first):

25 Jul 2026	York	held steady 81.1 → 70.0	£3k of £366k	beaten 17th
01 Jul 2026	Thirsk	held steady 7.7 → 6.2	£25k of £200k	beaten 8th
05 Jun 2026	Doncaster	drifted 5.8 → 7.4	£21k of £147k	won

The last run's market share (1% of the pool against a 22% norm) is the loudest line on the page: the money left BEFORE the race, and the result proved it right. The recent pattern: the money has left. Today, live: morning 65 → current 50 (backed).

The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 06-05: finished 1 at BSP 7.4, traded 1.01 in-running; 07-01: finished 8 at BSP 6.2, traded 5.80 in-running; 07-25: finished 17 at BSP 70.0, traded 44.00 in-running.

The form, reconciled. The wins have come racing forward AND from off the pace - the winning mode is tactical, not fixed, so a run-style objection is a variable here, never a verdict (the winning runs' own positions say so). The best of the old form (1st at Nottingham, 18 Jul 2025; 1st at Pontefract, 06 Aug 2025; 2nd at Redcar, 16 Sep 2025) was earned by the EARLIER profile era - judge it against the horse that earned it, not the one arriving today. If the old numbers return on the clock, the map redraws - that is the thing to watch in the next sectionals.

The people. The yard, last 14 days: 2 winners from 13 runners (15%) - in form. This jockey with this yard: 366 prior rides, A/E 0.95 - a fair-priced pairing.

The campaign. Runs 34 days after the last start. The wins came 13-24 days after a previous run - today is OUTSIDE the winning window.

Today's ask. Thirsk on Good: front-runners win at 2.60x chance (301 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.35m. For this horse, the fit engine reads today neutral on every dimension - honestly, it has nothing to say; the record and the market carry this one. The race shape: 3 early types in a 19-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is not among them - the collapse, if it comes, is the opportunity. The Setup Read counts this horse +1 across its six measured dimensions - on the right side of how the race sets up. Drawn 16 of 19 (the early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 3.3 of 20, field average 10.9)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #1, votes for: drops in class; race-fit (ran <=45d); form (top-3 LTO or recent win); backed since morning; energy in the winning band; proven on the going; fits the winner profile on market position; fits the winner profile on recency.

The live signals. On the exchange he has been backed since 09:06 - 65 then, 50 at 15:30. Our own ledger holds the receipts from the last start (York, 25 Jul): the figure read hit, the connections read missed, the h2h read hit - the same nightly grading that feeds the masthead record.

The watch line. The read flips positive the day two things reappear together: the old numbers on the clock, and the money arriving - at a track the map likes. Neither was present today.

FORMLAB

EYE OF DUBAI

Who this is. A 26-run class 2 handicapper. 4 career wins, each on the record (newest first):

27 Sep 2025	Ripon	~6f	BSP 6.40	off 87
09 Nov 2024	Doncaster	~6f	BSP 8.00	off 87
28 Sep 2024	Ripon	~6f	BSP 6.20	off 84
03 Apr 2024	Catterick Bridge	~7f	BSP 1.99

2 of the 4 came at Ripon - the career has an address. The mark has risen from 81 to 85 - the handicapper's own verdict on the arc of this career. The recent core is turf: 18 of the last 20 runs.

The figures. The FormLab figure today: 67, ranked #16 in this field; career best 99. Per-run ratings, last 5: 93 → 64 → 78 → 78 → 45. The best of them (99) was set 09 Nov 2024 at Doncaster. Nothing in the last three has run within 21 lb of that best - the figures say the peak is behind, until they say otherwise.

The handicap. Today's mark is 82 - 5 lb BELOW the 87 it last won off; the handicapper has relented, the question is whether the horse has anything left to relent for. The winning marks on record: 84, 87, 87 - today's 82 sits outside that band. The mark had been dropping across the last runs (92 → 85), then eased 3 lb to today's 82.

The class. At today's level (class 3): 5 runs, 0 wins, 1 top-3. In stronger company (class 2-2): 15 runs, 3 wins, 6 top-3. DROPS in grade today (class 2 last time → 3).

The company. The recent fields' median marks: 92, 90, 92, 84, 89. Today's field median is 86 - a 4 lb WEAKER race than the recent company. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 22nd, 4th, 6th, 16th, 13th; today's course ranks 11th - within the recent range.

The conditions. At today's distance: 4 wins from 26 tries - beats market expectation at the trip (1.08). On good ground (today's band): 8 runs, 1 win, 3 top-3. The record reads clearly better on soft-side ground - today's band is not the favourite.

The horse on the clock - and the one replacing it. Two different animals share this form book. The earlier era: early position 0.33 of the field, closing at 97.4%. The recent six: position 0.55, closing at 96.8%. The profile that earned the older form is not the one arriving today. Run by run (newest first):

15 Aug 2026	Ripon	fin 13/14	FSF 57	pos 1.00	fsp 95.4
25 Jun 2026	Hamilton Park	fin 8/8	FSF 64	pos 0.88	fsp 99.7 (TF)
06 Jun 2026	Epsom Downs	fin 10/15	FSF 66	pos 0.20	fsp 91.9
15 Apr 2026	Newmarket	fin 11/13	FSF 60	pos 0.46	fsp 97.8
26 Nov 2025	Southwell	fin 7/9	FSF 61	pos 0.56	fsp 101.4
08 Nov 2025	Doncaster	fin 2/22	FSF 64	pos 0.18	fsp 97.3

The last run's early position (1.00 of the field) was the furthest back this horse has ever raced.

The mechanism (career read). No stride record at this course yet, so the career speaks: 7.34m a stride over 25 measured runs against 7.34m at this LONG-stride track - the action FITS - stride and track are built for each other. [P96] tested this cell over 144,801 runs: fully priced by the market. It explains; it never tips.

The money's biography. Over 26 priced runs, the career is priced about right (blind BSP -15%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 2 steams to 9 drifts across the career; the wins came at BSP 2.0, 6.2, 8.0, 6.4; all 4 traded 1.01 in-running - when the blow lands it is decisive; caught from a winning position 2 times - a teaser at the finish. Peak conviction: 03 Apr 2024 at Catterick Bridge, £231k matched of £335k in the race. The recent money (newest first):

15 Aug 2026	Ripon	drifted 26.8 → 40.0	£9k of £352k	beaten 13th
25 Jun 2026	Hamilton Park	drifted 10.5 → 19.0	£12k of £181k	beaten 8th
06 Jun 2026	Epsom Downs	held steady 25.2 → 24.0	£17k of £519k	beaten 10th

The last run's market share (3% of the pool against a 8% norm) is the loudest line on the page: the money left BEFORE the race, and the result proved it right. The recent pattern: the money has left. Today, live: morning 25 → current 38 (drifting).

The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 06-06: finished 10 at BSP 24.0, traded 20.00 in-running; 06-25: finished 8 at BSP 19.0, traded 18.00 in-running; 08-15: finished 13 at BSP 40.0, traded 6.20 in-running.

The form, reconciled. The wins have come racing forward AND from off the pace - the winning mode is tactical, not fixed, so a run-style objection is a variable here, never a verdict (the winning runs' own positions say so). The best of the old form (1st at Doncaster, 09 Nov 2024; 2nd at Ripon, 04 Aug 2025; 1st at Ripon, 27 Sep 2025) was earned by the EARLIER profile era - judge it against the horse that earned it, not the one arriving today. If the old numbers return on the clock, the map redraws - that is the thing to watch in the next sectionals.

The people. The yard, last 14 days: 3 winners from 17 runners (18%) - in form. This jockey with this yard: 588 prior rides, A/E 0.92 - a fair-priced pairing.

The campaign. Runs 13 days after the last start. The wins came 7-30 days after a previous run - today is inside the winning window.

Today's ask. Thirsk on Good: front-runners win at 2.60x chance (301 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.35m. For this horse, today's field-relative read is AGAINST: finishing profile vs what the course demands. The race shape: 3 early types in a 19-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is not among them - the collapse, if it comes, is the opportunity. The Setup Read counts this horse +1 across its six measured dimensions - on the right side of how the race sets up. Drawn 19 of 19 (the early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 3.3 of 20, field average 10.9)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #18, votes for: drops in class; race-fit (ran <=45d); fits the winner profile on market position; against: burns early and empties; clock FADE.

The live signals. The handicapper dropped him 3lb in this week's revisions (85 to 82). The clock's pace-adjusted read files the last run FADE - flattered by how the race unfolded. In the read's own words: “Finished 13th at Ripon (6f) — it unloaded one of the biggest mid-race moves in the field, quickening by 1.98s per furlong through the middle off a slow start, and the closing 2f then emptied out (final call -1.75s below the ripo/C2/GOOD par) — a tank-draining…”. On the exchange he has been drifting since 09:06 - 25 then, 38 at 15:30. Our own ledger holds the receipts from the last start (Ripon, 15 Aug): the figure read part-hit, the energy read part-hit, the connections read missed, the class read hit - the same nightly grading that feeds the masthead record.

The watch line. The read flips positive the day two things reappear together: the old numbers on the clock, and the money arriving - at a track the map likes. Neither was present today.

FORMLAB

BIG CYRIL (IRE)

Who this is. A 7-run class 3 handicapper. 1 career win, on the record:

22 Jun 2024

Ayr

~6f

BSP 3.82

The mark has slid from 94 to 90 - the handicapper's own verdict on the arc of this career.

The figures. The FormLab figure today: 64.3, ranked #17 in this field; career best 89. Per-run ratings, last 5: 86 → 89 → 56 → 83 → 54. The best of them (89) was set 01 Aug 2024 at Goodwood.

The handicap. Today's mark is 82, yet to win off any mark. The mark: 90, then eased 8 lb to today's 82.

The class. At today's level (class 3): 2 runs, 0 wins, 0 top-3. In stronger company (class 1-2): 3 runs, 0 wins, 1 top-3.

The company. The recent fields' median marks: 92, 88. Today's field median is 86 - a 6 lb WEAKER race than the recent company. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 7th, 3rd, 4th, 20th, 14th; today's course ranks 11th - within the recent range.

The conditions. At today's distance: 1 win from 7 tries - beats market expectation at the trip (1.82). On good ground (today's band): 1 runs, 0 wins, 0 top-3.

The clock. Too few earlier timed runs to compare eras - the profile so far: spends early and doesn't finish, races midfield. Run by run (newest first):

28 Jul 2025	Windsor	fin 6/7	FSF 54	pos 0.14	fsp 95.4
25 Jun 2025	Salisbury	fin 5/5	FSF 64	pos 0.80	fsp 104.1
02 May 2025	Newmarket	fin 8/10	FSF 57	pos 0.90	fsp 96.0
01 Aug 2024	Goodwood	fin 6/9	FSF 65	pos 0.56	fsp 95.9
19 Jul 2024	Newbury	fin 3/9	FSF 67	pos 0.40	fsp 102.0
22 Jun 2024	Ayr	fin 1/5	FSF 59	pos 0.20	fsp 104.5

The mechanism (career read). No stride record at this course yet, so the career speaks: 7.25m a stride over 7 measured runs against 7.34m at this LONG-stride track - the action FITS - stride and track are built for each other. [P96] tested this cell over 144,801 runs: fully priced by the market. It explains; it never tips.

The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: Ascot, Carlisle, Doncaster, Ffos Las. Reads against: Brighton

The money's biography. Over 7 priced runs, the market has historically over-loved this horse (blind BSP backing -46%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 0 steams to 2 drifts across the career; the win came at BSP 3.8; and in the whole career this horse has never traded below 2.0 and lost: the flops are honest, beaten early, not late. Peak conviction: 19 Jul 2024 at Newbury, £47k matched of £310k in the race. The recent money (newest first):

28 Jul 2025	Windsor	drifted 21.1 → 38.0	£6k of £230k	beaten 6th
25 Jun 2025	Salisbury	drifted 13.3 → 21.7	£17k of £238k	beaten 5th
02 May 2025	Newmarket	held steady 228.1 → 231.3	£3k of £604k	beaten 8th

The last run's market share (3% of the pool against a 10% norm) is the loudest line on the page: the money left BEFORE the race, and the result proved it right. The recent pattern: the money has left. Today, live: morning 140 → current 120 (backed).

The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 05-02: finished 8 at BSP 231.3, traded 180.00 in-running; 06-25: finished 5 at BSP 21.7, traded 21.00 in-running; 07-28: finished 6 at BSP 38.0, traded 9.80 in-running.

The people. Headgear comes OFF today (wore s last time).

The campaign. Runs 396 days after the last start.

Today's ask. Thirsk on Good: front-runners win at 2.60x chance (301 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.35m. For this horse, today's field-relative read is FOR: finishing profile vs what the course demands. The race shape: 3 early types in a 19-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is not among them - the collapse, if it comes, is the opportunity. The Setup Read counts this horse -1 across its six measured dimensions - set up against, by the count. Drawn 6 of 19 (the early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 3.3 of 20, field average 10.9)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #16, votes for: backed since morning; energy in the winning band; proven at trip; fits the winner profile on market position; against: sectional profile stale. The profile likes this one more than the count does - that tension IS the read.

The live signals. On the exchange he has been backed since 09:06 - 140 then, 120 at 15:30.

The watch line. The read turns negative the day the money stays away or the clock era slips - watch the next timed run and the next market.

FORMLAB

WE NEVER STOP (IRE)

Who this is. A 30-run class 2 handicapper. 5 career wins, each on the record (newest first):

18 Apr 2025	Newcastle	~6f	BSP 20.20	off 95
14 Mar 2025	Southwell	~6f	BSP 8.38	off 91
02 Nov 2024	Southwell	~6f	BSP 6.59	off 89
22 Jun 2024	Redcar	~5f	BSP 4.90	off 82
03 Jul 2023	Pontefract	~6f	BSP 14.72

The figures. The FormLab figure today: 58.7, ranked #18 in this field; career best 104. Per-run ratings, last 5: 64 → 44 → 46 → 93 → 37. The best of them (104) was set 18 Apr 2025 at Newcastle. Nothing in the last three has run within 11 lb of that best - the figures say the peak is behind, until they say otherwise.

The handicap. Today's mark is 87 - 8 lb BELOW the 95 it last won off; the handicapper has relented, the question is whether the horse has anything left to relent for. The winning marks on record: 82, 89, 91, 95 - today's 87 sits inside that band. The mark had been dropping across the last runs (92 → 87).

The class. At today's level (class 3): 7 runs, 1 win, 4 top-3. In stronger company (class 2-2): 22 runs, 3 wins, 7 top-3. DROPS in grade today (class 2 last time → 3).

The company. The recent fields' median marks: 89, 93, 88, 86, 88. Today's field median is 86 - much the same level of company as of late. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 5th, 2nd; today's course ranks 11th - the weakest-ranked stop of the recent campaign, easier company than the bare class suggests.

The conditions. At today's distance: 5 wins from 30 tries - beats market expectation at the trip (1.62). On good ground (today's band): 6 runs, 1 win, 2 top-3.

The clock. A stable profile, no era shift: long-striding (7.67m v 7.28 national), spends early and doesn't finish, races midfield. Run by run (newest first):

25 Jul 2026	York	fin 21/21	FSF 51	pos 0.86	fsp -
27 Jun 2026	Chester	fin 2/9	FSF 75	pos 0.33	fsp 101.9
23 May 2026	York	fin 16/16	FSF 47	pos 0.28	fsp 96.5
13 May 2026	York	fin 19/22	FSF 55	pos 0.27	fsp 90.7
14 Apr 2026	Newmarket	fin 8/8	FSF 52	pos 0.75	fsp 101.2
19 Mar 2026	Newcastle	fin 3/7	FSF 74	pos 0.14	fsp 97.5

The last run's early position (0.86 of the field) was the furthest back this horse has ever raced.

The mechanism (career read). No stride record at this course yet, so the career speaks: 7.63m a stride over 25 measured runs against 7.34m at this LONG-stride track - the action matches the track's extreme. [P96] tested this cell over 144,801 runs: fully priced by the market. It explains; it never tips.

The money's biography. Over 30 priced runs, the market has historically been LATE on this horse (blind BSP backing +79%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 1 steam to 10 drifts across the career; the wins came at BSP 14.7, 4.9, 6.6, 8.4, 20.2; all 5 traded 1.01 in-running - when the blow lands it is decisive; and in the whole career this horse has never traded below 2.0 and lost: the flops are honest, beaten early, not late. Peak conviction: 11 Jan 2025 at Chelmsford City, £94k matched of £255k in the race. The recent money (newest first):

25 Jul 2026	York	held steady 60.3 → 60.0	£6k of £366k	beaten 21st
27 Jun 2026	Chester	held steady 36.9 → 23.0	£8k of £302k	beaten 2nd
23 May 2026	York	held steady 64.0 → 52.0	£3k of £209k	beaten 16th

The last run's market share (2% of the pool against a 9% norm) is the loudest line on the page: the money left BEFORE the race, and the result proved it right. The recent money pattern is quiet. Today, live: morning 60 → current 50 (backed).

The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 05-23: finished 16 at BSP 52.0, traded 50.00 in-running; 06-27: finished 2 at BSP 23.0, traded 11.00 in-running; 07-25: finished 21 at BSP 60.0, traded 50.00 in-running.

The eye-catcher caution. Last time this horse the comment reads 'hampered' - the visible hard-luck profile. Measured on 220,000+ runs ([P88]/[P89], both windows): this profile is systematically OVERBET next start (~4pp A/E deficit; excuse + narrowly beaten is worst). The story flatters; the price usually does not. Context only.

The form, reconciled. Every timed win came racing forward - forwardness is part of the winning recipe.

The people. The yard, last 14 days: 2 winners from 32 runners (6%) - quiet. This jockey with this yard: 214 prior rides, A/E 0.73 - a combination the market over-trusts. Headgear goes ON today (s) - a first-time or returning fit, and the record will judge it.

The campaign. Runs 34 days after the last start. The wins came 7-74 days after a previous run - today is inside the winning window.

Today's ask. Thirsk on Good: front-runners win at 2.60x chance (301 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.35m. For this horse, today's field-relative read is AGAINST: finishing profile vs what the course demands. The race shape: 3 early types in a 19-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is not among them - the collapse, if it comes, is the opportunity. The Setup Read counts this horse -2 across its six measured dimensions - set up against, by the count. Drawn 2 of 19 (the early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 3.3 of 20, field average 10.9)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #7, votes for: drops in class; race-fit (ran <=45d); backed since morning; proven at trip; proven on the going; fits the winner profile on market position; fits the winner profile on recency; against: behind rivals met on collateral form; burns early and empties.

The live signals. On the exchange he has been backed since 09:06 - 60 then, 50 at 15:30. Our own ledger holds the receipts from the last start (York, 25 Jul): the figure read missed, the connections read missed, the h2h read hit - the same nightly grading that feeds the masthead record.

The watch line. The read flips positive the day two things reappear together: the old numbers on the clock, and the money arriving - at a track the map likes. Neither was present today.